MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, September 3.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:05 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starting pitcher Mitchell Parker has had a rough 2025, posting a 5.94 ERA with six strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings. He faces a Marlins lineup that is fourth in run creation on the road, with nearly 4.9 runs per game. The Nationals are last in bullpen ERA at 5.44 while also being 27th in scoring at home with 3.9 runs per game. Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez has a 4.04 ERA with 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -128 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Marlins -146 and Total 9.1)
New York Mets vs. Detroit Tigers
Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes has a 3.60 ERA thanks to keeping the ball in the yard. He’s allowing only 0.8 home runs per nine innings, but has a 4.08 fielding independent with only seven strikeouts and 3.5 walks allowed per nine innings. Tigers starting pitcher Casey
Mize has a 3.95 ERA but a lower fielding independent than Holmes at 4.06, with only 2.4 walks per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a lineup that ranks sixth in run production at home with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline +102 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Tigers -127 and Total 8.8)
6:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Zack Littell owns a 3.63 ERA overall this season. Even though that has gone up to a 3.90 ERA since being traded from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Reds, his home runs allowed per nine innings rate has dropped from 1.8 to 1.3. Blue Jays starting pitcher
Shane Bieber has a 2.38 ERA, but it is in an incredibly small sample size of two starts, and he has allowed a pair of home runs in these starts. He is backed up by a bullpen that, since July 1, is 28th in ERA at 4.93. The Reds 3.58 bullpen ERA in that span ranks seventh.
Picks: Reds Moneyline +138 and Over 8.5 (Greg’s Handicap Reds +112 and Total 9.2)
7:35 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Cade Horton enters on an amazing run, posting a 2.92 ERA overall this season with four total runs in his last eight starts across 41 1/3 innings. Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder is coming off of allowing only three runs in 13 innings across his past two starts, but still has a dismal 5.85 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings this season.
Picks: Cubs Run Line -1.5 +125 and Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Cubs -1.5 +103 and Total 7.3)
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Adrian Houser has not been the same pitcher with the Tampa Bay Rays as he was with the Chicago White Sox. He posted a 2.10 ERA with 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings with the White Sox, and has seen that ERA jump to a 4.81 ERA with one home run per
nine innings allowed in five starts with Tampa Bay. Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby has a 3.94 ERA, but a lower fielding independent at 3.55 with 1.1 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings allowed. He has not been as effective on the road with a 4.73 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings away from home, compared to a 3.14 home ERA and 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Picks: Rays Moneyline +120 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Rays +115 and Total 9.1)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Jose Quintana owns a 3.69 ERA that is in danger of further negative regression as he has a 4.86 fielding independent with only six strikeouts per nine innings, along with 1.3 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. He just gave up six runs in his last start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has allowed 13 runs, 12 of which were earned, across 14 1/3 innings in three starts since coming off the injured list. This season, he has a 6.37 ERA as he prepares to face a Brewers team that leads the league in runs per game since the All-Star Break.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -115 (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -134)
8:40 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher German Marquez has pitched to a ton of contact, registering a 6.14 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 11.8 total hits allowed per nine innings. In his first start off the injured list on August 29, he allowed eight runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Chicago Cubs. He is supported by a bullpen whose 5.24 ERA ranks 29th in the league. Giants starting pitcher Robbie Ray has a 3.18 ERA but a 3.87 fielding independent with at least three runs allowed in four straight starts, though some of those runs were unearned.
Pick: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Over 11 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 11.8)
