MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, September 4.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
4:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has a 2.58 ERA, but his 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings are a career low. He owns a 3.61 fielding-independent pitching (FIP) with 3.4 walks per nine innings and has somehow allowed only one run in his past five starts. Peralta is supported by a lineup that has led the league in scoring since the All-Star Break, averaging 5.9 runs per game. Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez has a 3.02 ERA with 8.5 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings. He has allowed at least three runs in five of his past nine starts with a 4.56 ERA since the All-Star Break, compared to a 2.15 ERA before the break.
Picks: Brewers Moneyline -125 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -127 and Total 8.3)
6:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes is the odds-on favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award for good reason, posting a 2.02 ERA with two earned runs or fewer allowed in 21 of his past 25 starts. Dodgers starting pitcher Blake Snell has been effective when he has been healthy this season. He has a 2.54 ERA in his five starts since coming off the injured list with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Snell faces a Pirates lineup that is last in run production with just under 3.7 runs per game.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 6.6)
7:40 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
The Astros offense has struggled since the All-Star Break with their 3.4 runs per game ranking last in the American League in that span. They face Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon, who has a 3.18 ERA with 9.7 strikeouts and one home run allowed per nine innings this season. Rodon has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier has a 3.38 ERA in his four starts since coming off the injured list. Though his 5.1 walks per nine innings is high, he has only allowed one home run in 16 innings.
Pick: New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.8)
