MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, September 5.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
2:20 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs
The overnight forecast showed heavy winds, but more directional rather than out or in. Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin has allowed at least three runs in all six of his starts in August, posting a 5.42 ERA overall this season with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed and a 5.56 fielding independent. He faces a Cubs lineup that ranks 27th in scoring since the All-Star Break with four runs per game. The Nationals are 29th in scoring in that span with just under four runs per game. They face Cubs starting pitcher Javier Assad, who is only getting 4.5 strikeouts per nine innings, but it is in a smaller four-start sample size. For his career, he averages 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He is allowing 0.9 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings this season with his 4.05 ERA.
Pick: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.9)
6:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 16 of his past 21 starts and has a 2.65 ERA overall this season. He has a 3.63 fielding independent with only 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Mets starting pitcher David Peterson is also getting 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings, posting a 3.61 ERA with 3.5 walks per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a bullpen that, since August 1, ranks 22nd in ERA at 4.66.
Picks: Reds Moneyline +110 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Reds -104 and Total 8.8)
7:15 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners
Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale made his first start since June a week ago against the Phillies and looked solid with one run allowed in six innings. He now faces a Mariners lineup that ranks fourth in road scoring with 4.85 runs per game. The Braves bullpen is 25th in ERA since July 1 at 4.72. Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert has a 3.73 ERA with a 3.24 fielding independent, allowing 2.3 walks with 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He has struggled on the road with a 5.80 ERA with two home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.9)
7:35 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Ian Seymour owns a 2.97 ERA overall this season with a 2.78 fielding independent with 11.3 strikeouts and 2.7 walks per nine innings. In his two starts since being promoted from the bullpen, he has allowed one run across 10 innings. Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams has a 3.26 ERA, but a concerning 4.55 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 4.6 walks per nine innings allowed. He faces a Rays lineup whose 4.8 runs per game ranks 10th in the league.
Picks: Rays Moneyline -130 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Rays -136 and Total 8.4)
9:40 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle allowed two runs in 5 1/3 innings in his first career start at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates last week. He is tasked with holding down a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks seventh in run production with 4.9 runs per game. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled this season with a 5.40 ERA and has allowed at least four runs in five of his 10 starts since the beginning of July. He has also allowed 1.5 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings this season. The Diamondbacks bullpen is 26th in ERA at 4.68.
Pick: Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.2)
