MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, September 6.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:05 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil has struggled with command, issuing 5.8 walks per nine innings, but has a 3.68 ERA with two runs or fewer allowed in each of his past five starts, thanks to limiting hard contact. He is allowing 0.6 home runs per nine innings this season. Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt enters with a 4.10 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings. He has to face a Yankees team that leads the league in scoring with 5.3 runs per game.
Picks: Yankees Moneyline -140 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Yankees -159 and Total 9.3)
4:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara has performed better recently than his 5.66 ERA would indicate. He has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past four starts and is allowing just one home run per nine innings this season. While the Phillies offense is second in the league in run scoring at home with just 5.4 runs per game, this shrinks to 23rd on the road with 4.2 runs per game. Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo appears due for positive regression on his 4.05 ERA, allowing 0.8 home runs per nine innings with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.03 fielding independent. He faces a Marlins lineup that ranks last in the National League in run scoring at home with 3.8 runs per game.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.6)
6:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has rounded into great form. For the season, he has a 4.08 ERA, allowing zero or one run in five of his past seven starts. Mets starting pitcher Jonah Tong makes his second career MLB start, giving up four runs, but only one of which was earned, in his first career start against the Miami Marlins last week. He comes up after dominating the minor leagues last season, posting a 1.43 ERA with 14.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.4)
7:05 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz has struggled this season, posting a 4.98 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings, which shoots to a 6.47 ERA with over 2.2 home runs allowed per nine innings at home. Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has a 4.77 ERA with a career-worst 1.5 home runs allowed and 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He has allowed at least four runs in each of his past eight starts, and his ERA has ballooned to 5.64 on the road.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.1)
7:15 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown has had a terrific season with a 2.34 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts and 2.7 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that has the fewest home runs of any American League team since the All-Star Break and the fewest runs per game with 3.9 runs per game. Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom has a 2.69 ERA with 9.6 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings, with just two runs allowed in his past three starts.
Picks: Rangers Moneyline -102 ans Over 6.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Rangers -114 and Total 7.2)
9:38 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has struggled recently with his ERA shooting up to 3.83 with 3.7 walks per nine innings and at least four runs allowed in four of his past five starts. At home, he has a 2.30 ERA with 2.6 walks per nine innings allowed. Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn has a 5.17 ERA with two home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings, but he is also getting 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.8)
