MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, September 7.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
12:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Atlanta Braves
Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo has a 3.94 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings. He has performed significantly worse on the road with a 5.40 ERA, with at least three runs allowed in each of his past four starts. Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider has a 4.97 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a lineup that is eighth in run production since the All-Star Break with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -122 (Greg’s Handicap Braves -146)
1:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Mets will give 24-year-old Brandon Sproat his first career start on an MLB mound after registering a 4.24 ERA in the minor leagues this season with 3.9 walks per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene has a 2.70 ERA with three earned runs or fewer allowed in 14 of his 15 starts this season. He has 10.9 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings, with his ERA dropping to 1.75 at home.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -113 (Greg’s Handicap Reds -169)
2:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober has struggled to a 5.23 ERA this season with a career-worst 2.1 home runs and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed up by a bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA since July 1 at 5.01. Royals starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen owns a 4.54 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings. It does go down to a 3.60 ERA with one home run per nine innings allowed at home. The Royals’ bullpen ranks fourth in ERA at 3.61.
Picks: Royals Moneyline -120 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Royals -147 and Total 9.3)
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray has struggled of late. He has allowed at least three runs in six of his past nine starts and has a 4.43 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed. Giants starting pitcher Kai-Wei Teng owns a 7.23 ERA with 4.3 walks per nine innings in his five appearances this season. He is backed up by a lineup that is 10th in scoring on the road this season with nearly 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.7)
2:20 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have yet to announce if Colin Rea or Aaron Civale will pitch bulk innings after opener Drew Pomeranz, but they will be aided by the overnight forecast showing the wind will be blowing in. Both offenses have struggled since the All-Star Break, with the Cubs 26th in runs per game since the break at 4.1 runs per game and the Nationals 29th in offense with 3.9 runs per game in that span. Washington sends rookie Andrew Alvarez to the mound for his second career start after throwing five scoreless innings against the Miami Marlins at home in his debut. At the AAA level this season, he had a 4.10 ERA with 3.8 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Cubs Run Line -1.5 +107 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Cubs -1.5 -112 and Total 7.8)
4:07 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Mitch Farris allowed just one run in five innings in his MLB debut against the Kansas City Royals. At AA Rocket City this season, he had a 4.27 ERA and 4.3 walks per nine innings. Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino has a 4.65 ERA, but should be due for positive regression with a 4.05 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. His ERA shrinks to 2.94 on the road compared to his 6.34 ERA at home.
Pick: Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.8)
