MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, September 8.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Royals starting pitcher Ryan Bergert has been exceptional at limiting damage this season. He’s posting a 2.61 ERA despite issuing 3.8 walks per nine innings and allowing only one home run per nine innings. Bergert has allowed two runs or fewer in eight straight appearances. Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi has a 4.78 ERA with 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Ceconni has allowed at least three runs in six of his past seven starts. He is supported by a lineup that is 27th in scoring with 3.9 runs per game and is last in overall on-base percentage.
Pick: Royals Moneyline +1-8 (Greg’s Handicap Royals -103)
6:45 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean has been exceptional in his first four career starts. He has only given up four runs across 26 1/3 innings with just one home run allowed and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has a 6.78 ERA, posting an 8.38 ERA in his four starts since coming off the injured list.
Pick: Mets Moneyline -102 (Greg’s Handicap Mets -110)
7:15 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder is coming off allowing only four runs in 20 innings across his past three starts. He still has a dismal 5.54 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings this season. Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga is due for regression on his 3.15 ERA. He has a 4.58 fielding independent with only 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings and is allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings.
Picks: Cubs Moneyline -128 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Cubs -142 and Total 9.2)
9:38 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels pitcher Caden Dana is making his second start and fourth total appearance of the season. He is posting a 4.91 ERA with two home runs and six walks allowed in 11 total innings. At the AAA level, he posted a 5.93 ERA with 1.5 home runs and five walks per nine innings allowed. Twins starting pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson has a 4.53 ERA with 1.6 home runs and four walks per nine innings. He faces an Angels offense that is last in the league in home on-base percentage at .300.
Pick: Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.2)
9:40 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Seattle Mariners
Cardinals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas has pitched to a lot of contact this season. He is posting a 4.89 ERA with 5.7 strikeouts and 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo owns a 3.02 ERA but a 3.66 fielding independent to go with it. He’s allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings and is backed up by a lineup that ranks 12th in scoring with 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Seattle Mariners Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.1)
10:05 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics
The Athletics are fourth in the league in run scoring since the All-Star Break with just under 5.5 runs per game. They face a starting pitcher in Garrett Crochet who owns a 2.67 ERA with 11 strikeouts and just one home run per nine innings. Though Athletics starting pitcher Luis Morales has a 1.59 ERA, his fielding independent is nearly double that at a 3.10 with 3.5 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed up by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA at 4.80.
Pick: Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.2)
