MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, September 9.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo owns a 3.73 ERA, but has gotten 10.8 strikeouts with only one home run per nine innings. He has allowed just three total runs across his past three starts. Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron appears due for regression, posting a 3.03 ERA. He owns a 4.20 fielding independent with 2.9 walks and seven strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that is 28th in run production with fewer than 3.9 runs per game.
Picks: Guardians Moneyline -118 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Guardians -135 and Total 8.2)
6:45 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea’s 3.83 fielding independent and 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings indicate his 5.60 ERA might be due for positive regression. He has allowed four runs in five of his six starts since the beginning of August. Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez has had a few home struggles, posting a 3.68 ERA at home compared to a 2.05 ERA on the road. He is supported by a Phillies lineup that leads the National League in scoring at home with over 5.3 runs per game.
Picks: Phillies Moneyline -125 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Phillies -153 and Total 8.9)
7:05 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has had a tough time with command this season, posting a 4.28 ERA with 3.8 walks per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a lineup that leads the league with over 5.2 runs per game and 1.7 home runs per game. They face a Tigers starting pitcher in Casey Mize, who has allowed at least three runs in three of his past four starts, owning an ERA of 3.87 with 1.2 home runs per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 21st in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 4.47. The Yankees’ 5.19 bullpen ERA in that span ranks 29th.
Pick: Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.2)
7:15 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Cubs starting pitcher Cade Horton is on a remarkable run with four runs allowed across 47 innings in his past nine starts. He might be due for regression with a season-long 2.78 ERA with a 3.69 fielding independent as he pitched to lots of contact with only 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider has a 4.97 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a lineup that is eighth in run production since the All-Star Break with nearly five runs per game.
Picks: Cubs Moneyline -106 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Cubs -140 and Total 8.7)
9:38 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks has a 4.81 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings. He faces a Twins lineup that ranks 24th in scoring since the All-Star Break with 4.2 runs per game. Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews gets a lot of whiffs with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but owns a 4.73 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. The 4.99 bullpen ERA for the Twins since the start of July ranks 27th in the league.
Pick: Angels Moneyline +103 (Greg’s Handicap Angels Moneyline -108)
