MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, March 29.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:35 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Shane Baz makes his first start as a member of the Orioles after supplying a 4.87 ERA last season with the Tampa Bay Rays. His 4.37 fielding independent and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings point towards positivity this season. Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober also struggled last season, posting a career-worst 5.10 ERA and a career-low 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings after never getting fewer than 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Both Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg are on the injured list.
Pick: Twins vs. Orioles Under 9 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.2)
Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo struggled last season, posting a 4.15 ERA with a 5.09 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. He faces a Braves lineup that has dealt with loads of injuries the past two seasons, but in 2023 led the league in scoring with 5.75 runs per game. Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes did issue 4.3 walks per nine innings, but also had 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings, posting a 3.98 ERA with a 4.40 fielding independent.
Picks: Braves Run Line -1.5 +150 and Over 8 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap Braves -1.5 +138 and Total 8.6)
1:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean dazzled after getting called up to the big leagues last season, going 5-1 in his eight starts with a 2.06 ERA, getting 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing only 0.8 home runs per nine innings. He gets to face a Pirates lineup that ranked last in scoring last season with 3.6 runs per game. Pirates starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski had a 3.55 ERA and 3.33 fielding independent last season, but his ERA ballooned to 4.99 in his 12 starts. He had a 2.15 in his 22 appearances out of the bullpen.
Pick: Mets Run Line -1.5 +132
(Greg’s Handicap Mets -1.5 -106)
2:10 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
It is the MLB debut of Tatsuya Imai for the Houston Astros, who dominated in the Nippon Baseball League in Japan last season with a 1.98 ERA and 0.3 home runs per nine innings for the Seibu Lions. He faces an Angels lineup that completely depends on home runs, as the team was fourth in percentage of at-bats that produced a home run, but also 28th in on-base percentage. Angels starting pitcher Jack Kochanowicz had a 6.81 ERA with 5.8 strikeouts and 4.7 walks per nine innings. The Angels bullpen was improved in the offseason, but still ranked 28th in ERA last season at 4.86.
Pick: Astros Run Line -1.5 +125
(Greg’s Handicap Astros -1.5 -111)
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers
White Sox starting pitcher Anthony Kay is making his first MLB start since 2023 after spending last season in the Nippon Baseball League in Japan, where he had a 1.74 ERA with 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Brewers lineup that last season was fifth in scoring with 4.9 runs per game despite ranking 25th in home runs per at-bat. The Brewers give Brandon Sproat the start. Sproat posted a 4.79 ERA with the New York Mets last season, but his 2.80 fielding independent with zero home runs allowed per nine innings point towards perhaps a positive bump in 2026.
Picks: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +132 and Over 7.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap Brewers -1.5 -103 and Total 8.3)
2:20 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Both bullpens have been awful in this series. The Rays bullpen has allowed 11 runs, 10 of which were earned in 6 1/3 innings. The Cardinals bullpen has allowed 11 runs, 10 of which were earned in eight innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May is coming off a shaky 2025 season in which he had a 4.96 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings. Steven Matz had a 3.05 ERA last season, but familiarity may be to his detriment as he began the 2025 season as a member of the Cardinals, so they may know what he is throwing.
Pick: Rays vs. Cardinals Over 7.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.1)
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs
The wind has a bigger impact at Wrigley than arguably any other ballpark in baseball, and the overnight forecast suggests that the wind is expected to be blowing out at over 10 miles per hour. Neither starting pitcher gets toms of strikeouts. Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga last season had a respectable 3.73 ERA, but a 4.86 fielding independent with 7.3 strikeouts and 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin had a 5.70 ERA with a 5.64 fielding independent with 6.2 strikeouts and 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Picks: Cubs -1.5 -115 and Over 9.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap Cubs -1.5 -118 and Total 10.1)
7:20 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners
Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi had an up-and-down season in 2025, posting a 4.30 ERA with 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. He may benefit from pitching in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the league on Sunday. Mariners starting pitcher Emerson Hancock has been shaky at the big league level, posting a 4.90 ERA and 5.08 fielding independent last season, with 1.5 home runs allowed and 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The Guardians lineup appears a bit stronger than in past seasons, with young slugger Chase DeLauter hitting three home runs in the first two games of the season.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline +132
(Greg’s Handicap Guardians +106)
