MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, April 5.
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1:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians Game One Of Doubleheader
Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi had a bit of a shaky first season with Cleveland in 2025, with a 4.30 ERA and 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. Cubs starting pitcher Edward Cabrera is coming off a nice 2025 season in which he posted a 3.53 ERA with 9.8 strikeouts and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings, but the Cubs lost much of their bullpen during the offseason. The Guardians’ offense has upside from when they were 28th in scoring last season, with Chase DeLauter hitting five home runs already this season. The Guardians’ 3.44 bullpen ERA last season ranked third in the league.
Pick: Cubs vs. Guardians Over 7 Runs Game One of Doubleheader
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.8)
2:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals
Brewers starting pitcher Kyle Harrison is coming off posting a 4.04 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings allowed last season. Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic had a fantastic 2025 season with a 2.55 ERA while getting nine strikeouts per nine innings and giving up just 0.5 home runs per nine innings. While the Royals were last in the league in runs per game at home last season, with 3.7 runs per game, the fences being moved in at Kauffman Stadium should help. Length from both starting pitchers becomes even more important due to the teams having played a doubleheader on Saturday.
Picks: Royals Moneyline -116 and Over 7.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap Royals -144 and Total 8.4)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Blue Jays starting pitcher Eric Lauer is coming off of a nice 2025 season in which he had a 3.18 ERA with 8.8 strikeouts and 2.2 walks per nine innings. White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin had a 4.10 ERA last season, but a 4.64 fielding independent with 6.6 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings. The lineup behind him was 27th in scoring with just under four runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 +123
(Greg’s Handicap Blue Jays -1.5 -104)
2:35 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers
Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns posted a 4.67 ERA as a rookie last season, but his 2.65 fielding independent with 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings may be a sign of a good year to come. Rangers starting pitcher Jack Leiter improved greatly last season, dropping his ERA from 8.83 in 2024 to 3.85 in 2025 with 8.8 strikeouts and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen whose 3.62 ERA last season was fifth in the league, while the Reds 3.89 bullpen ERA ranked 14th.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -118
(Greg’s Handicap Rangers -131)
3:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
Coors Field has by far the highest ballpark factor for helping run scoring in all of baseball and both starting pitchers allow a lot of contact. Last season, Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker had a 4.08 ERA, but a 5.07 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings while getting only 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano last season had a 4.64 ERA while getting 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings and allowing 1.9 home runs per nine innings for a 5.36 fielding independent.
Pick: Phillies vs. Rockies Over 11 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 11.7)
4:05 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has always been at his best at home, posting a 2.92 ERA with 0.5 home runs per nine innings in his career in San Francisco. His ERA goes up to 3.96 away from home. Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga had a 3.02 ERA, but a 4.12 fielding independent with 4.4 walks per nine innings allowed. Though the Giants dealt some pieces away at last season’s trade deadline, the team was fourth in bullpen ERA at 3.48, while the Mets lost their closer, Edwin Diaz, in the offseason.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -120
(Greg’s Handicap Giants -131)
Houston Astros vs. Athletics
Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. had a brutal 2025 season after missing the entire 2023 and 2024 seasons, posting a 6.51 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 6.3 walks per nine innings allowed. Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez had a 4.08 ERA last season, but showed very lethal stuff with 11 strikeouts per nine innings. His ERA shrinks to 2.64 at home, making him one of the few pitchers to have a lower ERA in Sacramento than elsewhere, as Sacramento is currently a top-three ballpark in elevating run production.
Pick: Athletics +105
(Greg’s Handicap Athletics -125)
7:20 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers
Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy pitched out of the bullpen last season, posting a 3.07 ERA, but looked shaky in his first start of 2026, allowing four runs in five innings. Leahy has never been much of a strikeout pitcher, with a career 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Tigers starting pitcher Keider Montero lowered his ERA to 4.37 last season, but had a 4.93 fielding independent with 7.1 strikeouts and 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. Both bullpens entered the weekend struggling this season, with the Cardinals 22nd in ERA entering Saturday at 4.91, while the Tigers were 23rd at 4.95.
Picks: Tigers -132 and Over 7.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap Tigers -146 and Total 8.6)
