MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, April 7.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron owns a lifetime 2.95 ERA in his 25 MLB starts since the beginning of the 2025 season, but that appears due for regression with a 4.09 fielding independent, along with 7.5 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings.
Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams had a 3.06 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings last season and is coming off a dominant outing with 10 strikeouts in seven scoreless innings on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He is supported by a bullpen whose 3.44 ERA last season ranked third in the league, while the Royals currently have closer Carlos Estévez on the injured list.
Pick: Guardians -107 Moneyline and Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -156 and Total 7.9
3:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox
Dating back to the start of the 2025 season, Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has been electric with a 1.76 ERA and just 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed, but his 2.87 fielding independent suggests potential regression.
White Sox starting pitcher Shane Smith has a 4.29 ERA since making his MLB debut in 2025, with 3.7 walks per nine innings allowed. Both teams have shaky bullpens, with the White Sox entering the series ranked 28th in bullpen ERA at 6.31, while the Orioles ranked 18th with a 4.54 bullpen ERA.
Pick: Orioles vs. White Sox Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
4:10 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen is coming off a 2025 season in which he posted a 4.83 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings allowed.
Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta had a 2.70 ERA last season, but his 3.64 fielding independent and 3.4 walks per nine innings point toward regression. He faces a Diamondbacks lineup that ranked fourth in run production with 4.9 runs per game last season, though Arizona also ranked 27th in bullpen ERA at 4.82.
Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Mets Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
6:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara appears to be back to peak form in year two after major surgery, throwing 16 scoreless innings in his first two starts of the season.
Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott may have been a bit fortunate to post a 2.87 ERA last season, as he had a 3.66 fielding independent with 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that entered this series ranked 29th in scoring with 2.9 runs per game.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -122
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -139
6:45 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox
Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski posted a 4.36 ERA last season but a much better 3.62 fielding independent with 11.9 strikeouts and 4.2 walks per nine innings, though his control issues can lead to shorter outings.
Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet was superb last season with a 2.59 ERA, generating 11.2 strikeouts and just two walks per nine innings, while being backed by a lineup that ranked sixth in scoring with 4.8 runs per game. He faces a Brewers lineup that ranked fifth in baseball with 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers vs. Red Sox Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore pitched to contact last season, posting a 4.21 ERA with 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. His current 1.64 ERA through two starts this season appears due for regression, with a 5.65 fielding independent, just four strikeouts, and two home runs allowed across 11 innings.
Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli is coming off a 4.25 ERA with 7.4 strikeouts and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings last season and is supported by a bullpen that ranked last in the league with a 5.59 ERA.
Pick: Cardinals +100 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -121 and Total 8.3
7:05 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler has been dominant to start the season with 11 2/3 scoreless innings in his first two starts after posting a 2.96 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts and one home run allowed per nine innings last season. He faces an Athletics lineup that is averaging just over 2.8 runs per game on the road this season.
The Athletics counter with Aaron Civale, who posted a 4.85 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed last season while pitching for three different teams.
Pick: Yankees Run Line -1.5 +105 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -1.5 -127 and Total 7.8
8:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has had a rough start to the 2026 season, allowing 11 runs through 8 2/3 innings after posting a 1.73 ERA with 0.7 home runs and 1.5 walks per nine innings allowed last season.
Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby was a bit unlucky last season with a 4.21 ERA and a 3.37 fielding independent, along with 1.1 home runs and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he has historically been worse on the road, posting a 3.10 ERA at home compared to a 4.08 ERA away from home.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline +106 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers Moneyline -132 and Total 8.1
