MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, April 8.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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12:35 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Padres starting pitcher Michael King had an injury-riddled 2025 season that led to a 3.44 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings. He looks to return to his 2024 form, when he posted a 2.95 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Pirates lineup that is improved from a season ago but still ranked last in scoring with 3.6 runs per game.
Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has been incredibly consistent over the past three seasons, with ERAs of 4.21, 4.25, and 4.19, respectively, and had a career-low 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings last season. The Padres back him up with a bullpen that posted a league-best 3.06 ERA.
Pick: Padres Moneyline +104
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -143
1:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Royals starting pitcher Cole Ragans posted a 4.67 ERA in 13 starts last season, but his 2.50 fielding independent suggests he pitched much better than that, as he allowed just one home run per nine innings while generating 14.3 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he appears to have regressed to begin 2026, allowing three home runs through 10 innings.
Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo had a 3.21 ERA with 10.2 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed and is supported by a bullpen whose 3.44 ERA last season ranked third in the league.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline +108
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -122
1:35 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox
Brewers starting pitcher Chad Patrick is coming off a rookie season in which he posted both a 3.53 ERA and a 3.53 fielding independent, generating 9.6 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings.
Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray struggled after the All-Star break last season, as his ERA ballooned to 5.45 with nearly 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed, but he is supported by a lineup that ranked sixth in scoring last season with 4.8 runs per game. The Brewers led the National League in scoring on the road with nearly 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers vs. Red Sox Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
2:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox
Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish has had a shaky start to the season, posting a 6.23 ERA with six walks issued in his first 8 2/3 innings after making a combined 14 starts over the past two seasons.
White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke had a 4.22 ERA with a 4.92 fielding independent last season, allowing 1.5 home runs and 4.2 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks 23rd in ERA to begin the season at 5.80.
Pick: Orioles vs. White Sox Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
3:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies
Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier has not been himself over the past few seasons due to injury, posting a 4.76 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings in 48 starts since his dominant 2022 campaign. While Coors Field boosts offense, its effects are typically less extreme early in the season.
Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen had a 4.64 ERA with 8.1 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings with the Kansas City Royals last season and is backed by a bullpen that entered Tuesday ranked seventh in ERA at 2.91.
Pick: Astros vs. Rockies Under 12 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.7
3:45 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola is coming off a rough 2025 season in which he posted a 6.01 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Giants starting pitcher Tyler Mahle was limited to 16 starts last season but made the most of them with a 2.16 ERA and 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. The Giants bullpen ranked fourth in ERA last season at 3.48, though it lost some key pieces at the trade deadline.
Pick: Giants Moneyline +120
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -121
4:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
The Cardinals have great familiarity with Nationals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas, who posted a 4.84 ERA with just 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings last season. Through two starts with the Nationals, he has struggled, allowing 15 earned runs and five home runs in 9 1/3 innings.
Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy posted a 4.42 ERA last season, issuing just 1.9 walks per nine innings but generating only 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The Nationals bullpen had the worst ERA in the league last season at 5.59.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -120 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -145 and Total 8.8
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson is coming off a solid 2025 season in which he posted a 3.34 ERA with one home run and 2.4 walks allowed per nine innings.
Mets starting pitcher David Peterson had a 4.22 ERA last season, but his 3.48 fielding independent indicates he pitched better than that, as he allowed just 0.6 home runs per nine innings. While closer Edwin Díaz is no longer with the Mets, they acquired a late-inning duo in Luke Weaver and Devin Williams in the offseason.
Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Mets Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.2
7:40 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez has impressed with his new team, allowing just one run in 12 innings across his first two starts after a 2025 season in which he posted a 3.66 ERA, his highest since 2019, but still had a 3.36 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober posted a career-worst 5.10 ERA last season with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, but issued just 1.9 walks per nine innings. He should benefit from colder temperatures, and Detroit entered Tuesday averaging just four runs per game on the road.
Pick: Tigers vs. Twins Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
