Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for April 4. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Saturday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Saturday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. On Saturdays and Sundays, I’m going to keep these much shorter to cut down on my workload a little.
Steven Matz Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+145) vs. Twins
Rays at Twins – 7:10 pm ET
Matz didn’t have the greatest outing against the Cardinals to start the year, giving up four earned runs on six hits in 5.0 innings of work. However, he did record 15 outs, he threw 81 pitches, and the Rays found a way to win on the road. Well, in tonight’s meeting with the Twins, Matz will be going up against a Minnesota offense that was just decent when facing left-handed pitching last year. Matz also had an outing last year in which he threw 4.0 innings of shutout ball against the Twins. That said, at very favorable odds, I’ll take a shot on getting 5.1 innings out of him.
Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135) vs. Diamondbacks
Braves at Diamondbacks – 7:15 pm ET
Michael Soroka struck out 10 in 5.0 scoreless innings in his first start of the year, but I’m still going to Baldwin to finish with at least two combined hits, runs, and RBIs tonight. Baldwin can really hit right-handed pitching, which is why he has gone Over a total of 1.5 HRR in four of the five games in which he has faced righties this season. He also went way Over in those games, finishing with at least three HRR in all four. Tonight, I don’t think anything changes. This game has a high total with the contest being played in a hitter-friendly park, and Baldwin will take his place near the top of this talented lineup. I think he’ll produce.
Kyle Karros Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+130) vs. Phillies
Phillies at Rockies – 8:10 pm ET
I’m a sucker for playing Overs on hitter props in Coors Field, and Karros is a very intriguing option tonight. He should be batting third in the game with the highest total on the board, he’s a player that swings a big bat, and he’s going up against a southpaw in Jesus Luzardo. Last year, in the minors, Karros was so good at every level that he sped through the process of getting called up. And while he’s off to a slow start to the year, these are the types of matchups in which he should impress.
Additional Picks
Tatsuya Imai Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-175) vs. Athletics
Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120) vs. Nationals
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Tatsuya Imai Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+132) vs. Athletics
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 8.24 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -488 — a +39.9% edge to the Over.
Dustin May Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105) vs. Tigers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 6.40 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -325 — a +25.2% edge to the Over.
Davis Schneider Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+146) vs. White Sox
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him projected for 2.03 combined hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -152 — a +19.6% edge to the Over.
