Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for March 26. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record.
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+116) vs. Mets
Pirates at Mets – 1:15 pm ET
It feels a little sucker going after Skenes’ strikeout props this early, but plus-money odds for one of the best swing-and-miss pitchers in baseball to fan seven against a burnable lineup? Sign me up. You’ll see below that our OptaAI player props page has this Over as one of the top edges of the day, and I already loved this one. Skenes finished last season striking out at least seven batters in eight of his final 11 starts. The reigning Cy Young winner should also be ready to rock after having pitched in big games in the World Baseball Classic, meaning less of a ramping-up phase than you’ll see with other aces. Skenes also had six strikeouts in his lone start against New York last year, but the Mets went out and added Luis Robert Jr. and his 28.3% K% in the offseason. Perhaps that’ll make the difference in getting Skenes to seven, and I don’t even think you can rule out 9-10 strikeouts here.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110) vs. Nationals
Nationals at Cubs – 2:20 pm ET
PCA was just inked to a big extension, so he should be feeling good when he touches the grass at Wrigley Field this afternoon. Well, the feeling will only get a little better if he’s able to make something happen at the plate, and I tend to think he will. Last season, Crow-Armstrong averaged 2.2 combined hits, runs, and RBIs when facing right-handed pitching, and that went up to 2.5 HRR when playing in Chicago. I also like the matchup for Crow-Armstrong this afternoon. As far as Opening Day starters go, you can be facing tougher arms than Cade Cavalli, who had a 6.17 ERA in five road starts last season.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-111) vs. Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers – 8:30 pm ET
Yamamoto got shelled in his first start against the Diamondbacks last year, giving up five earned in 5.0 innings of work. However, the star pitched 7.0 shutout innings in his second start against Arizona, then he pitched 7.0 innings of one-run ball in his final start of the year against the Snakes. Also, those last two starts happened to come at Dodger Stadium, where this game will be played tonight. I just like Yamamoto to have another big start against this lineup, which is undeniably worse than it was at this time last year. Also, like Skenes, Yamamoto pitched in the World Baseball Classic, so I anticipate he’ll pitch well early in the season.
Additional Picks (Late Adds)
Matt McLain Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+157) vs. Red Sox
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) vs. Guardians
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) vs. Diamondbacks
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+116) vs. Mets
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 8.58 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -304 — a +29.0% edge to the Over.
Zac Gallen Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+113) vs. Dodgers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 6.08 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -264 — a +25.6% edge to the Over.
Leo Rivas Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-122) vs. Guardians
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him projected for 1.53 combined HRR, suggesting these odds should be -364 — a +23.5% edge to the Over.
