MLB 2023 postseason betting trends and systems
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed.
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With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Note that all of these trends and systems will be tracked & qualified on a daily basis for VSiN Pro Subscribers over the next month on our popular MLB Analytics Reports.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
– ROAD FAVORITES are on a 5-11 SU skid (-8.5 units, ROI: -53.1%)
– HOME FAVORITES of -190 or higher are on a run of 23-8 SU (+6.9 units, ROI: 22.3%)
– The most vulnerable HOME FAVORITES in the MLB playoffs dating back to ’00 have been those in the -120 to -144 money line range, as they are just 87-101 SU (-45.1 units, ROI: -24%)
Coming off wins/losses
– HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been good bounce-back options, going 14-8 SU (4.75 units, ROI: 21.6%) and 16-6 on run lines (13.7 units, ROI: 62.3%) in their last 22 tries.
Series wins status
– For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 58-35 SU (19.85 units, ROI: 21.3%) and 50-43 on run lines (14.7 units, ROI: 15.8%) since 2013.
– HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 70-48 SU (6.25 units, ROI: 5.3%) and 64-54 on run lines (19.45 units, ROI: 16.5%) since 2015.
– HOME FIELD has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 33-31 SU (-14.2 units, ROI: -22.2%) since 2013.
Stats from last game trends
– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 38-40 SU (-18.05 units, ROI: -23.1%) and 27-51 on run lines (-14.55 units, ROI: -18.7%) since 2012.
– Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just one or two runs are on a 16-5 SU (11.05 units, ROI: 52.6%) surge since 2016.
– MLB postseason teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 17-24 SU (-10.4 units, ROI: -25.4%) and 16-25 on run lines (-11.3 units, ROI: -27.6%) skid since 2019.
– Power surges don’t tend to last in for underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +110 or more coming off a game in which they hit 3 home runs or more are just 7-34 SU (-24.8 units, ROI: -60.5%) and 11-30 on run lines (-33.2 units, ROI: -81%) in the follow-up game since 2009.
– Teams playing as UNDERDOGS in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 21-43 SU (-15.4 units, ROI: -24.1%) since 2016.
Trends based upon regular season records
– In the last 94 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 46-48 SU (-19.3 units, ROI: -20.5%) since ’19.
– In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 15-19 SU (-10.7 units, ROI: -31.5%) and 12-22 on run lines (-11.6 units, ROI: -34.1%) in playoff games.
– In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 28-20 SU (13.2 units, ROI: 27.5%) and 33-15 on run lines (14.8 units, ROI: 30.8%) in playoff games.
Totals angles
– The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vig’s have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
Wild Card Round Angles
