MLB Postseason Betting Trends and Systems:
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament unlike any other in sports. It is made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other league, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Note that all of these trends and systems will be tracked & qualified on a daily basis for VSiN Pro Subscribers over the next month on our popular MLB Analytics Reports, so don’t fret should you lose track of this article over the next month.
2025 Playoff Qualifiers Postseason Records/Ranks (since 2015)
ROI Rank, Team, Won-Lost, Units, ROI – Totals
1. DETROIT: 4-3, +1.97 units (ROI 28.1%) – Totals 3-4 O-U
2. BOSTON: 18-14, +6.2 units (ROI 19.4%) – Totals 21-11 O-U
3. PHILADELPHIA: 20-14, +5.47 units (ROI 16.1%) – Totals 16-16 O-U
4. CLEVELAND: 20-22, +0 units (ROI 0%) – Totals 17-23 O-U
5. SAN DIEGO: 12-13, +-0.25 units (ROI -1%) – Totals 16-8 O-U
6. SEATTLE: 2-3, +-0.2 units (ROI -4%) – Totals 2-3 O-U
7. LA DODGERS: 57-48, +-7.28 units (ROI -6.9%) – Totals 51-47 O-U
8. NY YANKEES: 29-30, +-5.06 units (ROI -8.6%) – Totals 26-29 O-U
9. CHICAGO CUBS: 19-20, +-4.5 units (ROI -11.5%) – Totals 14-21 O-U
10. MILWAUKEE: 8-14, +-6.68 units (ROI -30.4%) – Totals 6-15 O-U
11. TORONTO: 10-16, +-11.95 units (ROI -46%) – Totals 10-14 O-U
12. CINCINNATI: 0-2, +-2 units (ROI -100%) – Totals 0-2 O-U
Of note, only three of the 12 postseason qualifying teams for 2025 have been positive ROI teams over the last 10 years of playoff action. Recognize the significant Over the total tendencies from Boston and San Diego as well, while teams like the Cubs and Brewers have trended dramatically Under.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
– Road favorites of -140 or higher are on a 32-18 SU run since 2001 (+4.65 units, ROI: +9.3%)
– In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 54-62 for -22.53 units (ROI: -19.4%)
– Home favorites of -240 or higher are on a run of 15-2 SU (+9.85 units, ROI: 57.9%)
– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 74-74 SU (-31.34 units, ROI: -21.2%)
Coming Off Wins/Losses
– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 53-59 SU (-21.54 units, ROI: -19.2%) since 2016.
– Home teams coming off a win in a series game have been a better option, 73-62 SU (-5.21 units, ROI: -3.9%) in that same time span.
Series Wins Status
– For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 69-47 SU (+14.99 units, ROI: 12.9%) and 61-55 on run lines (+15.7 units, ROI: 13.5%) since ’13.
– Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 80-75 on run lines (+16.85 units, ROI: 10.9%) since 2015.
– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 37-42 SU (-25.69 units, ROI: -32.5%) since 2013.
Stats from Last Game Trends
– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 47-62 SU (-36.41 units, ROI: -33.4%) and 34-75 on run lines (-33.75 units, ROI: -31%) since 2012.
– Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just 1 or 2 runs are on a 19-5 SU (+14.62 units, ROI: 60.9%) surge since 2016.
– MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 53-47 SU (+3.23 units, ROI: 3.23%) surge and 54-46 on run lines (+6.25 units, ROI: +6.25%) since 2014.
– Power surges don’t tend to last in for big underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +130 or more coming off a game in which they hit three home runs or more are just 8-30 SU (-16.72 units, ROI: -44%) and 13-25 on run lines (-19.3 units, ROI: -50.8%) in the follow up game since ’02.
– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 33-57 SU (-15.89 units, ROI: -17.7%) since 2016.
Trends Based Upon Regular-Season Records
– In the last 108 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 54-64 SU (-34.8 units, ROI: -29.5%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023! However, they were 7-3 for +2.7 units in 2024.
– In the last five playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 16-28 SU (-22.7 units, ROI: -51.6%) and 12-32 on run lines (-23.1 units, ROI: -52.5%) in playoff games. The record of these teams in ‘23…1-9 SU and 0-10 RL’s. There were none of these teams last year, and there are again none in 2025. Milwaukee won the most games in the regular season, 97.
– In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 46-40 SU (+17.11 units, ROI: 19.9%) and 56-30 on run lines (+17.2 units, ROI: 20%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
Totals Angles
– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has split 80-73, Overs have produced a return of +25.5 units, a ROI of 16.7%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
Wild Card Round Angles
2022 was the first season in which the wild card round expanded to a 3-game series
– Wild Card visitors priced at -110 to +160 underdogs are on a 20-16 SU (+11.19 units, ROI: 31.1%) and 25-11 (+7.2 units, ROI: 20%) on run lines surge since 2018.
– Wildcard totals have gone 32-19 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +14.05 units, or an ROI of 27.5%.
– Since the wildcard playoffs turned into series in 2022, the team that has won Game 1 in the series has gone 10-2 SU (+10.11 units, ROI: 84.3%) & 8-4 (+3.9 units, ROI: 32.5%) on run lines in the follow-up Game 2.
Divisional Round Angles
– Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 56-37 SU (+5.91 units, ROI: 6.4%) and 51-42 on run lines (+16.8 units, ROI: 18.1%) since ‘15.
– Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 40-26 SU (+17.52 units, ROI: 26.5%).
– Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 33-22 SU (+10.25 units, ROI: 18.6%). These follow-up games also tend to go UNDER on totals, 30-22 (+5.9 units, ROI: 11.3%)
– Game 1 home favorites in the divisional round are on a 33-18 SU (+8.25 units, ROI: 16.2%) surge, including 3-1 last year.
– There have been 30 divisional round Game 5s since 2002, 26 of them had favorites (-110 or higher), and those teams have gone just 12-16 SU (-10.55 units, ROI: -37.7%) and 9-19 (-8.6 units, ROI: -30.7%) on run lines
– Of those 28 Game 5 divisional round favorites, 21 of them have been home favorites, and those teams are just 8-13 SU (-10.9 units, ROI: -51.9%).
LCS Round Angles
– There has been a -52.6% ROI on betting favorites of -190 or higher in the LCS round, as they are just 10-9 for -9.3 units since 2000.
– If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 60-24 (71.4%) for +20.75 units since 2000, an ROI of 24.7%!
– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 42-38 (+14.83 units, ROI: 18.5%) since 2018.
– Teams losing while failing to score more than 2 runs in a LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 40-59 SU (-22.69 units, ROI: -22.9%).
– The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring 7 runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same series win in which they scored 6 runs or more, as those teams are just 25-38 SU (-19.08 units, ROI: -30.3%) since 2015, including 2-5 last year.
– Game 1 home teams in the LCS round are on a 13-5 SU (+6.67 units, ROI: 37.1%) surge since 2015.
– Game 1 road/neutral LCS favorites are just 2-7 SU (-6.75 units, ROI: -75%) & 0-9 RL (-9 units, ROI: -100%) since 2002
– LCS Game 1 teams that won 100 or more games in the regular season are on a 7-1 SU (+6.25 units, ROI: 78.1%) run since 2004 when matched against a team that didn’t win 100 games.
– Unders hold a huge edge on Game 1 totals of 8 or more dating back to the year 2000, 16-8 (+6.1 units, ROI: 25.4%)
– Over the last 10 non-neutral LCS series, home teams in Game 2 are on a run of 15-7 SU (+8.6 units, ROI: 39.1%).
– Game 2 teams that lost in Game 1 are just 8-15 SU (-9.1 units, ROI: -39.6%) and 6-17 (-12.9, ROI: -56.1%) on run lines since 2013
– Road/neutral teams down 0-1 in a LCS series have gone just 5-13 SU (-9.4 units, ROI: -52.2%) since 2008.
– All but two of 15 LCS Game 2 favorites of -150 or more have won their games since 2000 (+9.8 units, ROI: 65.3%).
– Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 ML are on a brutal skid of 6-26 (-17.4 units, ROI: -54.4%) on run lines.
– Road teams in LCS Game 3s that are down 0-2 in the series have gone just 1-5 since 2006 (-4 units, ROI: -66.7%), scoring for total runs in the five losses.
– Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 25-17 SU (+14.64 units, ROI: -34.9%) and 29-13 RL (+8.45 units, ROI: 20.1%) run since 2003 in the LCS round. However, both lost last year in both categories.
– Game 4 teams trailing in their LCS series have really struggled of late, going 11-28 SU (-22.61 units, ROI: -57.9%) and 12-27 (-19.85 units, ROI: -50.9%) on run lines since 2005
– On Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 30-7-1 for +22.3 units, an ROI of 60.2%. This includes 2-0 a year ago.
– Big favorites of -140 or more in LCS Game 5s have been practically automatic since 2000, going 17-3 SU (+11.95 units, ROI: 59.8%).
– Teams looking to close out series in Game 5s have typically failed to do so, going 6-11 SU (-5.2 units, ROI: -30.6%) and 5-12 (-8.95 units, ROI: -52.6%) on run lines in their last 17 tries
– Game 6s have belonged to home teams since 2006, as they have gone 16-5 outright (+9.88 units, ROI: 47%) and on run lines (+14.35 units, ROI: 68.3%)
– Game 6 favorites have gone just 9-16 SU (-15.02 units, ROI: -60.1%) since 2003 in the LCS round
– Not surprisingly, Unders have been the total of choice in Game 7s recently, with that option on totals going 8-3 (+4.55 units, ROI: 41.4%) in the last 11.
Nine Top MLB World Series Betting Systems
Over the last 20+ years of World Series action, several nice betting systems have emerged. You know you’re going to bet the games, so why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently?
WORLD SERIES system #1:
Home field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series action, with hosts on a 19-29 slide in the last 48 opportunities dating back to 2016 (-18.65 Units, -38.9% ROI)
Analysis: Home-field advantage was a much bigger deal in earlier rounds of the playoffs, particularly the divisional round, so be careful not to overvalue this factor when it comes to the World Series, as the best teams in the league know how to win on the road as well. Obviously, these numbers don’t include the 2020 series, which was played in a neutral environment.
WORLD SERIES system #2:
Dating back to 2007, World Series Home Underdogs of +120 or more have gone just 1-8 (-6.45 Units, -71.7%)
Analysis: Teams become large road favorites in the World Series when they are dominant or have an elite starting pitcher going. In games with the biggest stakes, it hasn’t been fruitful to fade either.
WORLD SERIES system #3:
Strangely, the most profitable home teams in the World Series recently have been those in the -110 to -125 range, or the very short favorites, as those teams are on a 19-12 run since 2000 (+4.79 Units, 15.5% ROI)
Analysis: It seems that home-field advantage has been the deciding factor in games that are expected to be tight. This was 1-0 in 2024.
WORLD SERIES system #4:
Overall, on totals, there has been a very slight lean to the Over in World Series games over the last 16 years; however, in games with totals of 8 or higher, Under holds an edge of 20-15 in that span (+2.45 Units, 7% ROI)
Analysis: Typically, pitching, especially deep in games, takes center stage in the World Series. Both of these teams usually have solid bullpens to bolster above-average starting rotations. As well as the teams’ lineups might hit, both on paper and in playoff action to date, higher totaled World Series games have leaned Under of late.
WORLD SERIES system #5:
World Series teams have struggled putting back-to-back wins together recently, going 10-23 in the game following up a WS win (-17.85 Units, -54.1% ROI)
Analysis: There has been a lot of back-and-forth in the World Series recently, and teams that are able to string wins together wind up having a huge advantage in the series.
WORLD SERIES system #6:
World Series Game 1 home teams are on a 10-4 run (69.2%, +4.8 Units, 34.3% ROI)
Analysis: In the system above, we showed that it’s hard to string back-to-back wins together in the World Series. Well, for Game 1, the advantage has gone definitively to the hosts recently. Naturally, the Game 2 play is usually the road team. If you recall, the Dodgers had a thrilling walk-off win at home over the Yankees in Game 1 last year.
WORLD SERIES system #7:
World Series Game 4s have been the most clearly dominated by the road teams, 14-6 since 2004 (+8.9 Units, 44.5% ROI)
Analysis: Game 4 is usually a definitive contest, as the better team, or the one with the home-field advantage in the series, is playing on the road, and the lesser host often has its fourth starter going. However, the Yankees did win their only game of last year’s World Series at home in Game 4.
WORLD SERIES system #8:
Incredibly, since the start of the 2014 World Series, teams that scored 2 or fewer runs in the prior game are on an incredible 24-10 surge. (+15.69 Units, 46.1% ROI)
Analysis: These teams that didn’t score well in the prior outing would tend to be the least attractive wagers in the betting public’s eyes; however, they have proven to be quality teams highly capable of bouncing back. In fact, they have averaged over 5.0 RPG in the follow-up game, which includes the Yankees, who put up 11 in Game 4 last year.
WORLD SERIES system #9:
Washington’s improbable Game 7 win in the 2019 World Series snapped a streak of nine straight road underdogs losing after hitting 3 or more home runs in the prior WS game. The Dodgers also completed the feat in Game 3 last year. The record is now 2-9 (-6.32 Units, 57.4% ROI)
Analysis: This is a strange one when you consider that power surges can be big momentum builders in other postseason or regular season stretches.
