MLB Postseason Bullpen Betting Systems Update for September 29:
We have wrapped up another full regular season of MLB, and I am here to deliver the final MLB Bullpen Systems Update of the year. Hopefully, with all the football going on, you stuck with these angles in the month of September, as we had a rousing conclusion to the season. The easiest bullpen angle brought in +19.82 units over the last week of the season, and we finished in the black! Why is this such a big deal to me? Considering the system offers a play for almost every game on the MLB season schedule, finishing at +0.15 units for such a simplistic concept is nothing short of extraordinary. The Better Bullpen Underdog angle also had a massive conclusion to the regular season and finished just shy of +60 units for ’25. In all, there were so many season highlights that it’s going to be just an update of sharing those and the final stats, movers, and ratings.
Before I proceed, however, I’d like to thank you for all the great feedback throughout the season, and I assure you that we will continue to provide the qualifying plays on the systems for the full month of October postseason games. If you were utilizing these bullpen systems all season, I trust your bankroll is in great shape for a playoff run.
Looking quickly at the bullpen systems’ results of last week and the season in general, I am gushing with excitement at delivering the results: I already shared that the easiest angle brought in +19.82 units last week alone, but the +22 unit return of the month got us into positive territory for the season. Here are some other great highlights:
– All three fade correlation systems discovered at mid-season this year finished with unit returns of at least -22.9 units and at least -8.4% ROI. Remember, fading bad spots can be just as rewarding as backing a good one.
– The elite pitching correlation system (#3) brought in +30.55 units for the season and a ROI of 5.4%
– The importance of pitching system I discovered last year had a huge 2025 campaign, producing +48.41 units in 2025. Its two-year return is over 83 units of profit!
– Our BP system, indicating to back huge favorites of -190 or more with better bullpen ratings and winning >=19% more of their games than their opponents, went +25 units in 2025.
– The angle that has been our most popular bullpen system for a few years running now, the better bullpen underdog angle overcame a sluggish start to 2025 to post a return of +59.39 units! Doing the math of that one, $100 per game bettors would have netted $5,939! Were you one of those bettors?
If you’re new to VSiN for the football season, and thus new to this MLB Bullpen Systems Report, to fully implement these bullpen focused strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. Of course, you can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our awesome VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 9/28:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1,138-1,004 for +0.15 units and an ROI of 0%. We got back 19.82 units over the last seven days in what turned out to be the best week of the season, and it pushed us into the black! When you consider that almost 2,100 games have qualified on such a simple, idealistic angle, the advantage of this angle over simply blindly playing teams is extraordinary. In fact, the average MLB bettor not using it and playing all MLB games this season would theoretically be down over -130 units, or -6.1% ROI. Try finding another simplistic concept that can keep a bettor afloat like this playing nearly every game on the board.
Although I always remind readers that easiest isn’t always best, the nearly dead even returns on 2,142 games validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, most or all are still faring very well. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season. I named them correlation systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the final regular-season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so in the postseason and into next year:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games.
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching.
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks.
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represented an ROI of -8.4%!
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-2025 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%!
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 705-754 record, for +23.82 units (ROI 1.6%) in the full 2024-25 seasons. I believe this angle has some merit in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but wound up 377-404 for +13.98 units.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For 2025, they were an unusual 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L2 regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so the ‘25 results of 107-100 for +3.03 units were disappointing.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in ’25 and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Although it lost -5.28 units in 2025, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2025 disappointing results aside, I will continue to track this one in 2026 as well.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have accumulated throughout the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings and the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams for the week.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 9/29)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN DIEGO: 3.06
2. BOSTON: 3.41
3. CLEVELAND: 3.44
4. SAN FRANCISCO: 3.48
5. TEXAS: 3.62
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. WASHINGTON: 5.59
29. COLORADO: 5.18
28. LA ANGELS: 4.86
27. ARIZONA: 4.82
26. MINNESOTA: 4.6
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN DIEGO: 1.15
2. TEXAS: 1.22
3. HOUSTON: 1.22
4. CLEVELAND: 1.23
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 1.23
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. WASHINGTON: 1.52
29. COLORADO: 1.51
28. BALTIMORE: 1.42
27. LA ANGELS: 1.41
26. ARIZONA: 1.41
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.05
2. TAMPA BAY: 9.87
3. TORONTO: 9.7
4. SAN DIEGO: 9.58
5. NY YANKEES: 9.51
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. DETROIT: 7.71
29. KANSAS CITY: 7.76
28. COLORADO: 7.86
27. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.93
26. ARIZONA: 8.09
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. CINCINNATI: 0.81
2. MINNESOTA: 0.87
3. TORONTO: 0.89
4. CLEVELAND: 0.94
5. NY METS: 0.94
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.59
29. ARIZONA: 1.57
28. WASHINGTON: 1.5
27. ST LOUIS: 1.45
26. BALTIMORE: 1.45
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday 9/22:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. TORONTO: +7 points
1. NY YANKEES: +7
3. BOSTON: +6
3. COLORADO: +6
3. MINNESOTA: +6
3. CINCINNATI: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -11 points
2. TAMPA BAY: -7
2. ST LOUIS: -7
4. WASHINGTON: -6
5. TEXAS: -4
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 9/15)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. MILWAUKEE: 30
2. SAN DIEGO: 30
3. CLEVELAND: 29
4. CHICAGO CUBS: 22
5. BOSTON: 22
6. ATHLETICS: 19
7. PITTSBURGH: 18
8. SEATTLE: 14
9. KANSAS CITY: 14
10. NY YANKEES: 13
11. TORONTO: 13
12. HOUSTON: 13
13. TEXAS: 13
14. LA DODGERS: 10
15. ST LOUIS: 9
16. SAN FRANCISCO: 8
17. MIAMI: 8
18. ATLANTA: 6
19. TAMPA BAY: 6
20. PHILADELPHIA: 5
21. CINCINNATI: 5
22. NY METS: 4
23. LA ANGELS: 4
24. BALTIMORE: 1
25. DETROIT: 0
26. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -1
27. ARIZONA: -7
28. MINNESOTA: -9
29. COLORADO: -26
30. WASHINGTON: -35
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating. The teams in bold are those that are going to compete in the 2025 MLB Postseason.
