Sunday Night Baseball: Braves vs. Padres:
It has been a rough start for the Atlanta Braves on the West Coast, as the San Diego Padres have the chance at a rare four-game sweep to open up the season. With a series against the currently unbeaten Los Angeles Dodgers on the horizon, we could see a very desperate Braves team tonight, as they take the field in an underdog role on Sunday Night Baseball.
AJ Smith-Shawver gets the call for the visitors and newcomer Nick Pivetta will make his Padres debut for the hosts.
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How to Watch Braves vs. Padres
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday March 30, 7:10 p.m. ET
Braves vs. Padres MLB Odds
Atlanta Braves +105 // San Diego Padres -125
Total: 8 (-105/-115)
Braves vs. Padres Game Preview
It is pretty clear what the issue is for the Braves in this series, as they are 1-for-22 with runners in scoring position. After an 0-for-7 start in the 7-4 loss in the opener, Atlanta has only scored three runs in the last two games, with Marcell Ozuna’s two-run single in the third inning on Friday as the lone knock with RISP.
The Braves were 0-for-6 in last night’s 1-0 affair, as they squandered six shutout innings from Spencer Schwellenbach by failing to capitalize on four walks issued by Randy Vasquez over his six shutout innings. The Braves are missing Ronald Acuna Jr. as he continues to rehab from a torn ACL, but there are more than enough pieces in this lineup to generate some more offense.
The Padres are 6-for-18 in the RISP department to go along with three solo homers. The other big difference in this series has been the bullpen for San Diego. Their relievers have been spectacular, posting 14 innings of work with just one run allowed. The only run they’ve allowed came in the third inning on Opening Day, so all of the leverage arms have been stellar. The Braves, meanwhile, have allowed six runs in just eight innings of work.
Smith-Shawver only threw 4.1 innings for the Braves last season in one spot start. He made 20 starts in Triple-A and posted a 4.85 ERA with a 5.26 FIP. He allowed 20 home runs in just 87 innings of work. He had a strong Spring Training with a 3.94 ERA and a 2.17 FIP in 16 innings across four starts and one relief effort. He’s only 22 years old and was fast-tracked to the big leagues with 25.1 innings at the age of 20, so it’s hard to know exactly what his ceiling can be, but he’s a good arm that ranked second on FanGraphs’ prospect list for the Braves coming into the season.
Many praised the Padres’ signing of Pivetta, who gets away from the AL East and into a much friendlier ballpark. Pivetta, who has never posted an ERA under 4.04 in his MLB career, has been a guy with better advanced metrics, specifically xERA and xFIP. He throws a lot of strikes and is more of a fly ball guy, so Fenway Park was rather unkind and there are some other good hitting venues within the division. Petco Park’s marine layer should assist with some of the fly balls that would’ve left the yard in other places.
Pivetta has seen a big uptick in strikeouts over the last couple of seasons and followed up a career-best 31.2% K% in 2023 with a second-best 28.9% last season, while also posting a career-best BB% of just 6.1%. He still gave up 28 homers in 145.2 innings, but between the good K/BB stats and less than a hit allowed per inning, 22 of them were solo shots. You can deal with those given the other good things he provides. It’s worth noting that in 13.1 MLB innings in the Spring, Pivetta did not allow a home run, even in hitter-friendly Arizona.
I’m not sure what we’re going to get from Smith-Shawver here, but I do think the steam behind Pivetta with the change of scenery is very reasonable and the Padres bullpen has been lights out in the series. I think they’ve got a great shot at completing the sweep.
Pick: Padres -125
Braves vs. Padres Player Props
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Tatis has feasted on fastballs in his MLB career, posting +46.6 batting runs per Statcast. Smith-Shawver does not have a particularly deep arsenal, as he’s thrown 54% fastballs in his two MLB cups of coffee. He allowed five homers and a .482 SLG on the fastball in 2023, where we have a little more data because his stint at the MLB level was much longer.
In the minors last season, righties hit 12 of the 21 homers Smith-Shawver allowed and nine of the 13 doubles, finishing with a .491 SLG.
