Sunday Night Baseball: Braves vs. Phillies

When this series was scheduled and this game was picked for ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, the prevailing thought was probably that Braves vs. Phillies would mean a ton this late in the season. Well, it still means something to the Phillies, who are back out to a six-game lead in the NL East after giving up three games to the Mets earlier this week. The Braves, however, are 14 games under .500 and will have their first losing season since 2017.

That was also the last time that the Braves missed the playoffs, so it’s fair to wonder how engaged they will be the rest of the way. Tonight’s starter, Hurston Waldrep, still has plenty to prove, though, and he’ll look to set the tone tonight, as the Phillies counter with Jesus Luzardo.

 

See how others are wagering on the game with our VSiN MLB Betting Splits.

How to Watch Braves vs. Phillies

Where: ESPN

When: Sunday, August 31, 7:00 p.m. ET

Braves vs. Phillies MLB Odds

Atlanta Braves +138 // Philadelphia Phillies -168

Total: 9 (-101/-121)

Braves vs. Phillies Game Preview

Waldrep was a late arrival to the party for the Braves, as he worked 91.2 innings at Triple-A before getting called out. The 24th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft out of Florida has worked 30 MLB innings with a 0.90 ERA and a 2.32 FIP over four starts and one relief appearance. He failed to record the win in his last appearance, which was the first time he did not have the ‘W’ next to his name in an MLB game.

Waldrep has 24 strikeouts against seven walks and there are some regression signs in the profile, as you would expect with an ERA under 1.00. He has an 89.7% LOB% and a .259 BABIP against. He allowed eight hits and failed to strike out any of the 24 batters he faced last time out against the Marlins, but still only allowed one run over 5.1 innings of work. He has done a tremendous job with contact management, allowing just a 32.1% Hard Hit% and a 3.7% Barrel%, so there may be more staying power to his BABIP than most.

Luzardo owns a 4.23 ERA with a 3.55 xERA and a 3.08 FIP, so he should be faring a bit better than he is, but a .341 BABIP and a 69.8% LOB% are two main culprits. Luzardo has pitched 149 innings this season, a huge bump from last year’s 66.2 innings at the MLB level. It’s fair to wonder if that workload is starting to catch up with him, as he allowed seven homers in 104.1 innings in the first half and has allowed seven homers in just 44.2 innings here in the second half.

The southpaw has actually fared better in the second half in BA, OBP, and SLG than he did in the first half, but he has a 4.43 ERA compared to a 4.14 ERA before the All-Star Break. Luzardo did not allow a home run last time out, but did give up four runs on five hits over four innings to the Mets. He walked three and only struck out five.

As August comes to a close, the Phillies rank fifth in wOBA at .342 and have a 118 wRC+. The Braves have been hitting better of late, posting a .324 wOBA and a 107 wRC+ this month. They were just 19th in wOBA in the first half of the season, a big reason why they will fall short of their goals this year.

Against lefties, Atlanta grades 6% below league average with a 94 wRC+. The Phillies are a top-10 lineup against righties, but Waldrep is a good one, so we’ll see if they can find some success tonight.

After a 19-4 drubbing in Game 1, the last two games in this series have been one-run wins by the Phillies. Atlanta used six relievers yesterday, while Philadelphia only used three. I typically don’t like to play home team run lines because that team is likely to only bat eight times, giving us one fewer opportunity for them to score, but Waldrep has faced the Marlins twice, White Sox, Guardians, and Reds in his five outings. This is a step up in class.

Pick: Phillies Run Line -1.5 (+129)

Braves vs. Phillies Player Props

Hurston Waldrep (ATL) Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+115)

Waldrep has a 10.4% SwStr% in his MLB work, so he’s right around league average for starters in that department, but he doesn’t get a lot of chases outside the zone. As mentioned, the Phillies are a pretty big step up in class here and he’s a guy that throws a lot of pitches in the strike zone. This is the best offense he’s seen in terms of being able to take advantage of all the contact that they should make.