Sunday Night Baseball: Braves vs. Phillies:
Boy, do we have a good one here or what for ESPN Sunday Night Baseball? The final Sunday without the NFL deserves a great game in primetime and the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will look to provide just that in the standalone spotlight.
Rookie upstart Spencer Schwellenbach and grizzled veteran Aaron Nola are the probable starters, so we’ve got the right type of pitching matchup to live up to the stature of this game, as the month of September begins and the pennant races heat up.
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Rain is a definite possibility for tonight, but hopefully Mother Nature allows this one to be played.
How to Watch Braves vs. Phillies
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday September 1, 7:10 p.m. ET
Braves vs. Phillies MLB Odds
Atlanta Braves +120 // Philadelphia Phillies -142
Total: 8 (-112/-108)
Braves vs. Phillies Game Preview
The Braves probably don’t have enough games or enough firepower to catch up to the Phillies in the NL East, which would break a string of six division titles, but they’re in a major Wild Card fight that requires all of their attention. The Padres and Diamondbacks have been outstanding since the Trade Deadline and the Mets will not go away, so every game is magnified for Atlanta at this time.
The Phillies still need to take care of their affairs in the division by keeping the Braves at arm’s length or a little bit more, but they’re also in a fight for one of the two coveted byes in the NL playoffs. The top two division winners are idle for the Wild Card Round, while the division winner with the fewest wins takes on the No. 6 seed and the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds go head-to-head in a best-of-three setting.
To say that Schwellenbach has been a godsend for the Braves would be an understatement. With Spencer Strider out and a glut of youngsters like AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Allan Winans, Bryce Elder, and Dylan Dodd that haven’t really separated themselves one way or another, the 24-year-old Schwellenbach has pitched 87 outstanding innings for Atlanta.
He comes in with a 3.72 ERA, 3.04 xERA, and a 3.11 FIP in his 15 starts with a stellar 102/18 K/BB ratio. He’s given up 10 homers, which comes with the territory as a strike-thrower, but the second-half K% bump has been impressive. He’s racked up 61 punchies in seven starts with a 36.3% K%, including nine strikeouts over 6.2 solid innings against the Phillies 10 days ago.
Nola has had a better season than what he put forth last year, as he’s shaved more than a run off of his ERA, while also having a lower FIP. Nola hasn’t had the same K% success, but his 70% LOB% is the best mark he’s had in that department since 2018 and that’s why he has a 3.30 ERA with a 3.87 xERA and a 3.94 FIP.
There are some modest regression signs in the profile based on his second-half performance, which is where the K% decrease has occurred. He has a 37/15 K/BB ratio in eight starts with a 3.09 ERA and a 4.35 FIP. Like Schwellenbach, he can be susceptible to the long ball by throwing so many strikes. He has a .343 BABIP, but an 86.5% LOB% to offset the batted ball misfortunes. He hasn’t allowed a Barrel in three starts, but did allow 14 in his first five starts of the second half.
The Braves have had issues with righties throughout the season, but they are actually performing at a higher level against RHP here in the second half than the Phillies. Philadelphia’s offense has actually been a big disappointment for a while now in that split, as they’ve leaned heavily on the pitching.
In this one, with some regression signs for Nola and the way that Schwellenbach is rolling, coupled with the recent offensive returns of these two teams, the underdog Braves look to be worth a shot to me.
Pick: Braves 120
Braves vs. Phillies Player Props
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-130)
Nola hasn’t had the greatest command here in the second half, as he’s allowed a 40.9% Hard Hit% and a 9.4% Barrel%. He’s allowed at least six hits in every start but one in the second half and had a run of five straight starts with at least seven hits allowed. He’s down to an 18.2% K%, which means that the Braves should be able to put some more balls in play and get their hits in this matchup.
