Sunday Night Baseball: Cardinals vs. Cubs:
For the first time in quite a while, we won’t have an AL East team in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball spotlight. Instead, we will have a different storied rivalry, as the St. Louis Cardinals take on the Chicago Cubs.
Miles Mikolas and Justin Steele are the projected starters for the series finale, as the Cardinals head home for a makeup game against the Mets and the Cubs open up interleague action with the Twins. Before we get to those games, though, we’ve got tonight’s primetime telecast.
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How to Watch Cardinals vs. Cubs
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday August 4, 7:10 p.m. ET
Cardinals vs. Cubs MLB Odds
St. Louis Cardinals +124 // Chicago Cubs -148
Total: 9 (-105/-115)
Cardinals vs. Cubs Game Preview
The Cubs took the first two games of what has been a fascinating four-game set, but the Cardinals have a chance to split the series after last night’s dramatic 5-4 win. Chicago led 4-1 going into the eighth, but the Cardinals scored three to tie it and then pushed the winning run across in the final frame.
That was payback for what happened on Thursday night in the series opener, when the Cubs scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. This series has not lacked drama and we’ll see if we get some compelling TV tonight. Every game is important from here on out for the Cardinals, who started the day two games back in the Wild Card race. The Cubs are six games out and have a lot of teams to leapfrog, so their playoff chances are certainly light.
Mikolas has had a rough season, as his 4.99 ERA over 124.1 innings is a byproduct of a low strikeout rate and an inability to get out of innings. His 65.7% LOB% is the fourth-worst mark among qualified starters, leading to that ERA of near 5, but he does have a 4.39 xERA and a 4.27 FIP, so a little more sequencing luck and he could find some better fortunes.
Steele is doing what he usually does. Over 17 starts and 101.1 innings of work, he has a 3.38 ERA with a 3.08 xERA and a 3.31 FIP. His K% is down a touch from last season, and he has also had some issues getting out of innings with a LOB% of 68.7%. In other words, his ERA would be even stronger without some of the negative sequencing luck that he has had.
So, both pitchers are mild positive regression candidates rolling forward, but Steele’s higher strikeout rate and overall stronger profile suggests he’s more likely to experience it.
Even though we’ve had close games in this series, neither bullpen is in that bad of shape. The Cubs had to use Hector Neris back-to-back days, including yesterday’s loss, and Drew Smyly has appeared in three of the last four. All other hands should be on deck. The Cardinals do not have anybody in that boat and only got 19 pitches from relievers yesterday.
Steele does have the stronger numbers, but he has allowed 12 runs on 21 hits in his three starts since the All-Star Break with nine walks against 17 strikeouts. The Cardinals are a slightly above average offense against lefties over the last 30 days. Mikolas has allowed five runs in his two post-Break starts. Steele is definitely better, but this line feels a little heavy.
Pick: Cardinals +124
Cardinals vs. Cubs Player Props
Miles Mikolas Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
This is a low number, but at plus money, it seems like a reasonable endeavor. Mikolas has only struck out four or more batters once dating back to June 22. He has 19 strikeouts out of 170 batters faced for an 11.2% K%. He only has a 2.9% BB% in that span as well, so he’s filling up the strike zone and hitters are putting balls in play. His last four starts have gone 3, 3, 2, 3 and the Cubs only have a 20.4% K% against RHP over the last 30 days.
Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 Hits (+145)
This is another plus-money price that caught my eye. Donovan is only batting .208 over 57 plate appearances here in the second half and draws a tough assignment in Steele, as he’s only hitting .238/.284/.320 in left-on-left matchups. Donovan has a .342 wOBA and a 124 wRC+ against righties, but lefties have effectively neutralized him this season and Steele is certainly an above average southpaw.
