Sunday Night Baseball: Cubs vs. Red Sox
A busy weekend on the diamond wraps up with ESPN Sunday Night Baseball between the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox. Jordan Wicks was originally supposed to start for the Cubs, but he has been scratched, so Hayden Wesneski will draw the assignment against Tanner Houck. This is the rubber match after a couple of lopsided games between the two teams.
How to Watch Cubs vs. Red Sox
Where: ESPN
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When: Sunday April 28, 7 p.m. ET
Cubs vs. Red Sox MLB Odds
Chicago Cubs +124 / Boston Red Sox -148
Total: 9.5 (+100/-120)
*All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook current at time of publish
Cubs vs. Red Sox Game Preview
The 28-year-old Houck just might be sitting on a breakout season under the tutelage of first-year pitching coach Andrew Bailey. Houck and his rotation mates have changed their pitch arsenals and pitch usage under Bailey’s advice, which has led to a 1.65 ERA and a 3.03 FIP for Houck over his first 32.2 innings of work. A lot of his stats stand out in positive ways, but the one that stands out the most is a 3.8% BB% after posting back-to-back years around the league average at 8.9%.
Without the walks, Houck has been able to rely on his ground ball-heavy arsenal and an above average K% (24.6%) to limit potential damage. He has allowed a lot of hard contact to this point, but hard ground balls are much better than line drives and well-struck fly balls, even with a Red Sox infield defense that has struggled in the absence of Trevor Story.
With yesterday’s 17-run barrage as a key driving force, the Red Sox now rank 12th in wRC+ at 105, which is the same score that the Cubs have. wRC+ is a measure of offensive performance relative to league average that is adjusted for park factor and the league-wide run environment, so 105 means both teams are performing 5% higher than league average.
Fenway Park is graded on a steep curve as one of the best offensive venues in baseball, but the Red Sox have been able to overcome a high K% and a low BB% thanks to their power production. The Cubs are walking a lot, which makes Houck’s improvements in that department particularly interesting here.
Wesneski failed to make the Major League roster out of Spring Training and went to the minors, where he allowed three runs on nine hits over 10.2 innings, including two starts and one bulk relief appearance. Since his recall, he’s pitched twice and only allowed one hit to 20 batters faced. He’s also only recorded three strikeouts in those 6.1 innings, but has not allowed much hard contact.
The 26-year-old worked 89.1 innings last season with the big-league club and had a 4.63 ERA with a 5.48 FIP. He’s really increased his slider usage based on his two appearances this season and hopes that his best pitch will be the one that allows him to stick.
Despite Houck’s success this season, I lean slightly towards the Cubs given the price point. A line of nearly -150 feels a little steep, but there are some player props that I like more.
Lean: Cubs +124
Cubs vs. Red Sox Player Props
Michael Busch Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-125)
By Pitch Type Batting Value, Busch ranks third on the Cubs against sliders, of which Houck will throw a lot. Busch is also slashing .307/.360/.600 against righties here in the young season with a 160 wRC+ and a .407 wOBA. He’s struggled against lefties, but when he’s made contact against righties, special things have happened. That includes six home runs and that Pesky Pole is not very far away from home plate. Houck is typically stingy with homers, but +500 may not be a bad long shot on Busch either.
Jarren Duran Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Duran is struggling against righties this season with a K% over 24% and a walk rate around 4%, so he’s not being very selective with the pitches that he is swinging at. Furthermore, his low Hard Hit% of 35.6% is a sign of bad contact authority and bad pitch selection in that regard as well. He has only been a plus hitter against fastballs and he likely won’t see a lot of them, as Wesneski is about 49% with the slider and he’ll probably see him twice, followed by relievers, who will either throw higher-velocity fastballs or also slant towards the breaking ball side.
Duran is only batting .222/.253/.356 with a 65 wRC+ against righties on the season.
