Sunday Night Baseball: Dodgers vs. Braves
In previous seasons, a matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves could have been billed as a potential NLCS preview. This season, the Dodgers are holding up their end of those expectations, but the Braves are not, as they sit four games below .500 heading into the series finale at Truist Park. So, while Dodgers vs. Braves isn’t quite the marquee matchup on paper that it should be, these are two very talented teams on display on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.
The Braves have dropped three in a row, which means that the Dodgers are going for the weekend sweep and actually their eighth win in a row before continuing their road trip in Miami tomorrow.
Top MLB Resources:
How to Watch Dodgers vs. Braves
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday May 4, 7:10 p.m. ET
Dodgers vs. Braves MLB Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers -135 // Atlanta Braves +114
Total: 9.5 (-102/-118)
Dodgers vs. Braves Game Preview
Dustin May makes his sixth start of the season and first in the month that bears his name for the Dodgers this evening. May hasn’t made a May start since 2023 and only has three MLB starts in the month, even though he debuted back in 2019. It will be interesting to see which version of May is on display today. His first start of the season came against Atlanta and he went five innings with an unearned run on one hit with six strikeouts and three walks.
His first three starts were all pretty solid, but the Cubs took him to the woodshed two outings ago to the tune of seven runs on 10 hits over five innings. Last time out, his struggles continued, as he surrendered three runs on five hits over 5.1 innings against the Marlins, posting a 3/3 K/BB ratio.
Under the hood, everything seems fine, as his release point and arm angle have been pretty consistent on the whole, so I don’t think it’s an injury situation. He’s just having a hard time finding consistency after missing all of last season and most of the last few seasons, as this will be just his 26th start since the 2020 COVID season.
Speaking of consistency, Bryce Elder has it, but not in a good way. He’s got a 5.33 ERA with a 4.54 xERA and a 5.87 FIP in his 27 innings of work this season across five starts. He has not been able to replicate his career year back in 2023 when he posted a 3.81 ERA over 31 starts and 174.2 innings. With Spencer Strider and Reynaldo Lopez down, Elder has been called upon to fill in.
He has thrown a couple of back-to-back quality starts with four runs on 10 hits over his last 12 innings, but his paltry 13.7% K% means that he has to run on the right side of batted ball variance to have any shot at success. That makes him a tough guy to back.
The Dodgers boast a top-five offense with a .347 wOBA and a 122 wRC+, while the Braves have gotten it going a bit after a very slow start. Atlanta ranks 14th in wOBA at .316, but has a below average offensive profile with a 99 wRC+ when accounted for park factor and the 2025 run environment. Over the last 14 days, Atlanta does have a .331 wOBA and a 109 wRC+, but the Dodgers have a .385 wOBA, a 148 wRC+, and lead the league with a .517 SLG in that span.
So, this looks like a very challenging assignment for Elder given his lack of bat-missing pitches. I don’t have much faith in May at this high of a number either, so I’ll take the Dodgers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs at -115 and see if an in-game opportunity arises for betting on the side or total.
Pick: Dodgers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-115)
Dodgers vs. Braves Player Props
Bryce Elder Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Elder has only gone Over this number twice and has had four strikeouts in each of those starts. Last time out, he struck out four over six innings against a Rockies team that swings and misses at one of the highest rates in baseball. The Dodgers have the seventh-lowest K% over the last 14 days and the third-lowest Chase Rate. Elder’s stuff isn’t good enough in the zone to induce Whiffs like that.
