Sunday Night Baseball: Dodgers vs. Braves:
The NFL definitely takes center stage every Sunday from now through the Super Bowl, but ESPN Sunday Night Baseball is still a weekly ritual for some and we’ve got a good one tonight. The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves continue their series at Truist Park with Walker Buehler and Charlie Morton on the mound.
This game is lined pretty much as a moneyline pick ‘em across the board, as the Braves have won the first two games in the series and are looking to secure a series victory in advance of tomorrow’s finale.
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How to Watch Dodgers vs. Braves
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday September 15, 7:10 p.m. ET
Dodgers vs. Braves MLB Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers -108 // Atlanta Braves -112
Total: 8.5 (-115/-105)
Dodgers vs. Braves Game Preview
Not only have the Braves won the first two games in the series, but they’ve outscored the Dodgers by a combined 16-3 over the last two nights. Atlanta jumped all over Jack Flaherty last night and put the game out of reach against Evan Phillips in the sixth. Chris Sale threw six more masterful innings and followed up Spencer Schwellenbach’s quality start from Friday to set the tone.
As a result, the Dodgers entered Sunday with a 3.5-game lead in the NL West. The Braves are desperately fighting with the Mets and Diamondbacks for a Wild Card spot. Atlanta and New York went into Friday with identical 81-67 records and a huge head-to-head series looming in the middle of next week.
The potent LA lineup is the reason why this game is lined the way it is. It has nothing to do with Buehler, who comes in with a 5.95 ERA, 5.19 xERA, and a 6.09 FIP in 59 innings of work. It has been another throwaway season for the right-hander, who missed all of last year with Tommy John surgery and has missed a good chunk of this season between that rehab and other ailments.
Since returning to the rotation on August 14, Buehler sports a 6.14 ERA with a 6.13 FIP over 22 innings. He hasn’t gotten more than 15 outs and has allowed five homers to go with 11 walks and 30 hits. He only has 18 strikeouts. We’re really talking about a shell of what he used to be. That said, his 32.9% Hard Hit% and 7.9% Barrel% do suggest some positive regression with some pretty solid contact management numbers in that span.
The 40-year-old Morton has a 4.11 ERA with a 4.51 xERA and a 4.44 FIP in 149 innings. He has actually allowed a .286/.362/.478 slash with a .364 wOBA in the second half. He’s allowed 10 homers in 51.2 innings after allowing 11 in 97.1 innings prior to the All-Star Game. Morton, who just crossed 15 years of MLB service time, has a 2.88 ERA with a 3.38 FIP in his last six starts, but he does have an 85.2% LOB% in that span, so he’s been very fortunate to limit the damage to the degree that he has.
Over the last 30 days, the Braves have the lowest relief ERA (2.01) and FIP (2.32), so the bullpen has been spectacular. The Dodgers rank 13th in ERA (3.50) and 16th in FIP (3.90). Over the last two weeks, the Braves pen has a 0.83 ERA with a 1.86 FIP. Both marks lead the league.
I think both starters could find some bumps in the road here. Buehler’s low strikeout rate and lack of swings and misses are concerning. Morton’s got some negative regression signs and faces a patient lineup that is definitely capable of setting up innings with walks. I won’t touch either bullpen here, but I like some early runs.
Pick: Dodgers/Braves 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-120)
Dodgers vs. Braves Player Props
Charlie Morton Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+115)
Morton has walked at least two batters in each of his last five starts and has gone over this number twice. He’s a guy who can get erratic and I do think that his 40-year-old arm may be wearing down a little bit here late in the season. His first-pitch strike percentage is just 54.1% here in the second half and he’s had three straight starts with a Chase Rate under 29%. I believe the Dodgers will make him work really hard here.
