Sunday Night Baseball: Dodgers vs. Mets
For the second straight week, the New York Mets draw a Sunday Night Baseball assignment, this time against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Last week’s appearance was the final game of the Subway Series against the rival Yankees, but this one is against a National League opponent in what could very well be a preview of a Dodgers vs. Mets NLCS.
The teams have split the first two games, with LA drawing first blood in a 7-5 extra-inning affair on Friday and NY getting back in the win column with a 5-2 dub on Saturday. So, what does Sunday’s rubber match have in store?
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How to Watch Dodgers vs. Mets
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday May 25, 7:10 p.m. ET
Dodgers vs. Mets MLB Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers +105 // New York Mets -125
Total: 8.5 (-115/-105)
Dodgers vs. Mets Game Preview
These two teams play a four-game series in Los Angeles during the first week of June, which will complete a seven-game series of sorts, so this could very well be a preview of what we might see in October, as I mentioned above. Very little seems to separate these two teams right now, as the Mets are 31-21 and the Dodgers are 32-20. New York has a +57 run differential and Los Angeles has a +61 run differential.
However, look a bit deeper and you see some differences. The Dodgers rank just 23rd in ERA at 4.14, as they’ve had a Major League-caliber pitching staff on the IL all season long. They are also just 20th in FIP, cobbling things together as they go along. Sunday starter Landon Knack is proof of that, as he would probably be in the Triple-A rotation if the Dodgers had all of their arms in working order.
Knack has made four starts and two relief appearances at the big league level this season with a 6.17 ERA, 5.23 xERA, and a 5.18 FIP over 23.1 innings of work. He has nearly a strikeout per inning, but has surrendered a .313 BABIP while still giving up five home runs out of his 26 hits. He’s allowed a 52.8% Hard Hit% and a 12.5% Barrel%, so he’s thrown far too many hittable pitches.
While the Dodgers staff has struggled as a whole, the Mets staff has not. Their pitchers collectively have the best ERA in the league at 2.88 and also the top FIP at 3.31, a feat made more impressive by the fact that Sean Manaea has yet to make his season debut after straining an oblique in Spring Training about three months ago. Manaea and Frankie Montas are on the comeback trail, but there may not be an easy spot for either of them with how the Mets’ main five have done.
That includes Kodai Senga, who boasts a terrific 1.43 ERA with a 3.18 xERA and a 2.84 FIP over his nine starts and 50.1 innings of work. After a stellar rookie season at the age of 30 after coming over from Japan for the 2023 season, Senga only pitched 5.1 innings last year in the regular season, as he got hurt in his return start and didn’t appear again until October. In direct contrast to Knack, Senga has allowed just one home run and a 5.2% Barrel%.
While the Mets have those elite pitching numbers as a team, they’ve been underwhelming offensively, coming into this one ninth in wOBA at .324 and ninth in wRC+ at 109, meaning they are about 9% better than league average with the bats. The Dodgers are second in wOBA at .349 and second in wRC+ at 124. So, the records may be similar, but the paths to getting there have not been.
I certainly prefer Senga and his hopes of shutting down the Dodgers lineup over Knack’s hopes of corralling the Mets. New York only used one reliever yesterday in Edwin Diaz after getting some very much needed length from David Peterson. I’ll take the Mets in the rubber match.
Pick: Mets -125
Dodgers vs. Mets Player Props
Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+100)
Righties have had a better knack for hitting Knack this season, posting a .311/.340/.622 slash with a .412 wOBA in 47 plate appearances. Last season, righties slugged .452 against Knack. Alvarez got off to a slow start this season due to injury, but he owns a .291/.381/.382 slash against righties thus far.
Kodai Senga Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Senga has some stellar run numbers, but the strikeouts have been a little bit erratic. He has a 12.1% SwStr%, but just a 54.4% F-Strike% and a 14% CStr%. Among 88 starting pitchers with at least 50 IP this season, Senga’s F-Strike% ranks dead last and his CStr% ranks 82nd. He has only gone over 5.5 strikeouts in three of his nine starts and the Dodgers have the fourth-lowest K% over the last 14 days at just 18.4%.
