Sunday Night Baseball: Padres vs. Astros
The Houston Astros are in search of a weekend sweep of the San Diego Padres on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball this evening. Houston’s win last night marked the first time this season that the Astros won consecutive games and just the second time this season that the Padres lost consecutive games, so Padres vs. Astros has some high stakes.
We’ve got a banger of a pitching matchup tonight at Daikin Park, as it will be Dylan Cease for the visitors and Framber Valdez for the hosts. By the way, did anybody realize it wasn’t called Minute Maid Park anymore? I certainly didn’t until yesterday, but I digress. Let’s talk about this one with a pick on the game and a player prop to consider.
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How to Watch Padres vs. Astros
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday April 20, 7:10 p.m. ET
Padres vs. Astros MLB Odds
San Diego Padres +105 // Houston Astros -125
Total: 7.5 (-102/-118)
Padres vs. Astros Game Preview
The Padres are definitely looking for a boost from Cease in order to avoid the sweep. He’s struggled a bit over four starts to start the year, as he comes in with a 6.64 ERA. However, his 2.97 FIP and 3.41 xFIP suggest greener pastures ahead. He gave up nine runs to the Athletics on April 8 over just four innings and that type of ERA killer is going to linger for a while with the early-season small sample sizes.
Ironically, Cease, who has allowed a 41.7% Hard Hit% and a 13.3% Barrel% this season, had his best start from a contact management standpoint in that outing against the A’s, as it remains his only effort with a Hard Hit% under 40% for the game. Baseball is just funny like that. But, with his stellar strikeout rate and only a couple of homers allowed, all of his advanced metrics, including his 3.82 xERA, make it seem like he’ll get things turned around in short order. But, will it be tonight?
The Astros came away with a 3-2 win last night, but we saw a lot of their issues on display. Offensively, this team has been quite poor, coming into tonight with a .223/.303/.334 slash and just a .286 wOBA. Christian Walker hit a big game-tying two-run homer last night, but extra-base hits have been few and far between otherwise.
Cease is not the only pitcher looking for better returns in this game. Valdez is coming off of a hideous start himself, as he allowed seven runs on 10 hits to the Cardinals over just four innings in his previous outing. Valdez has had two spectacular starts with 13 shutout innings and has allowed 12 runs on 14 hits in his other two starts. So, it is a bit of a toss-up as to which guy we will get this evening.
One constant across pretty much all four outings is that Valdez has been hit hard. He’s allowed a 50% Hard Hit% with a 10% Barrel%. As an extreme ground ball guy, you can typically deal with the hard contact allowed, but the double-digit Barrel% is a bit surprising, a sign that Valdez simply isn’t locating well enough right now. Teams are pulling the ball against Valdez at the highest rate of his career and that’s even with a bump in his sinker velocity.
The Padres bring a top-five offense into this tilt, as they are slashing .275/.344/.419 with a .336 wOBA that ranks fourth. However, they are missing superstar outfielder Jackson Merrill as well as Jake Cronenworth. San Diego has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league and leads the league in making contact on pitches in the strike zone, so they’ve been able to parlay those attributes into a good start to the season.
I do like the Padres tonight in an underdog role. Cease has a lot of swing-and-miss upside, even if the command has wavered a bit. Valdez could be good today, as he’s followed the “every other start” plan thus far, but San Diego’s offense has been a lot more potent and I’m a big fan of their bullpen, even though they had a couple rough days as a group last week.
Pick: Padres +105
Padres vs. Astros Player Props
Framber Valdez Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+105)
The Padres rank seventh in Swing%, sixth in O-Contact%, first in Z-Contact%, and second in Contact%. They have prioritized guys that have a lot of bat control and they like to put the ball in play as much as possible, as evidenced by their very low K%. Valdez is a guy that is normally around the plate quite a bit and he’s gone under this number in back-to-back starts after issuing six walks over his first two starts. I would expect that he’ll be comfortable back at home, where he only had a 7.2% BB% last season and a 4.9% BB% back in 2023
