Sunday Night Baseball: Rangers vs. Padres
A holiday weekend doubleheader on ESPN brings us the Cardinals vs. Cubs and also the Rangers vs. Padres, as we also have a late game between the Giants and Athletics that will not be picked up by the network. Even though that Giants and A’s series has had some fireworks, which is pretty apropos of the time of year, I’ll take a look at the Rangers vs. Padres game, since it will have a national audience.
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How to Watch Rangers vs. Padres
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday July 6, 9:10 p.m. ET
Rangers vs. Padres MLB Odds
Texas Rangers +107 // San Diego Padres -131
Total: 8.5 (-112/-108)
Rangers vs. Padres Game Preview
TBD is still listed as the starter for the Padres today, as the expectation is that Kyle Hart will be recalled from Triple-A to get the nod. Hart has a 6.66 ERA with a 4.67 xERA and a 6.52 FIP over 25.2 innings of work across six MLB starts this season. He has a 4.67 ERA with a 5.29 FIP in his nine starts over 44.1 innings in Triple-A. The Padres signed him out of the KBO after he spent the 2024 season there when he was let go by both the Mariners and Phillies in 2023.
The teams have split the first two games of this series and the Rangers will turn to Jack Leiter in hopes of picking up a series victory and also getting back to .500. Leiter checks in with a 4.29 ERA, 4.92 xERA, and a 4.53 FIP over 71.1 innings of work. He’s had major walk problems this season with a 10.5% BB%, but opposing batters are only hitting .226 with a .256 BABIP, so he’s been able to partially neutralize the control woes as a result.
He’s coming off of one of his best starts of the season, as he held the Mariners to one run over six innings with seven strikeouts last time out. It was a good bounce back performance after allowing 13 runs on 18 hits in 13.2 innings in his previous three starts. He only had nine strikeouts against eight walks in that span.
Leiter has actually been very good early in his starts, holding opponents to a .180/.278/.270 slash with a .254 wOBA the first time through the order. He’s also been solid the second time through, posting a .225/.287/.360 pitcher slash with a .286 wOBA. The third time through? Much different story. So it does seem like the Rangers might have the chance to play from in front here, though I guess we’ll see if the Padres opt to use an opener in front of Hart.
That said, the Rangers are 29th in wOBA against LHP at .275, batting just .219 with a .284 OBP. All in all, this is a pretty unattractive pitching matchup, especially for an ESPN game, but that’s what happens from time to time. It certainly won’t be as exciting as seeing Tarik Skubal like we did last weekend.
As far as a play, the Rangers have led after five innings in each of the two games in this series and Leiter’s early-game splits are good enough to provide some confidence.
Pick: Rangers 1st 5 (-105)
Rangers vs. Padres Player Props
Xander Bogaerts 1+ Walks (+145); Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Walks (+165)
Bogaerts only has a 95 wRC+ against RHP this season, but he and Fernando Tatis Jr. have double-digit walk rates in righty vs. righty matchups. Bogaerts has a 10.4% BB% in 240 PA against righties and Leiter has allowed a .352 OBP to righties this season with a 10.7% BB%.
Tatis has a 10.6% BB% in that split, but he’s done a lot more damage offensively with 14 homers. In other words, he’s a guy that you’d probably like to pitch around if possible. With Leiter’s control concerns, I think there’s a good chance one or both of these guys draws a free pass.
