Sunday Night Baseball: Red Sox vs. Yankees
For the 6,524th time in MLB history, Red Sox vs. Yankees draws the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball spotlight. Alright, maaaaybe that’s a bit of a stretch, but it is arguably baseball’s most storied rivalry and a game that will always draw eyeballs. The Dodgers and Padres certainly have a case for the present-day top rivalry, but these two AL East rivals have lost no love over the years.
History could be made tonight. The Red Sox have won the first three games of this series in the Bronx. They haven’t swept a four or more game series in the Bronx since a five-game sweep in 1939 per MLB.com’s Ian Browne. And, for good measure, the Red Sox have actually won eight in a row in the head-to-head battle.
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How to Watch Red Sox vs. Yankees
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday, August 24, 7:00 p.m. ET
Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Odds
Boston Red Sox +138 // New York Yankees -168
Total: 8.5 (-112/-109)
Red Sox vs. Yankees Game Preview
Trade Deadline acquisition Dustin May will get his first taste of the rivalry, as he takes the ball in the bottom of the first. Carlos Rodon will throw the first pitch of the game, as the Yankees turn to one of their two expensive left-handed starters in hopes of ending this run of futility against Boston.
For the season, Rodon boasts a 3.24 ERA with a 3.17 xERA and a 3.81 FIP. Most importantly, in a season where Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt have needed Tommy John surgery, Rodon has made 26 starts covering 152.2 innings. Opponents are only batting .186 against the veteran southpaw and he’s struck out over 27% of batters faced.
Rodon has also been nails at home, holding opponents to a .150/.234/.296 slash with a .239 wOBA. He has allowed 12 of his 19 homers at home, but has only allowed one double. He’s allowed 20 doubles on the road. In fact, in 73 innings at Yankee Stadium, Rodon has only surrendered 38 hits in total.
Boston has struggled against lefties over the last two weeks with a .231/.308/.317 slash and a .278 wOBA. But, that’s in just 117 plate appearances, as they’ve seen a much higher volume of righties. For the season as a whole, Boston is fifth in wOBA at .329 against lefties.
The Yankees draw a righty here after getting stymied by southpaw Garrett Crochet yesterday. May has allowed five runs on 19 hits in 15.2 innings with the Red Sox with 17 strikeouts against just four walks. The impending free agent was sent to Boston in the July 31 deal that sent James Tibbs and another prospect to the Dodgers. For the season as a whole, May has a 4.59 ERA with a 4.81 xERA and a 4.48 FIP after missing most of 2021, 2022, 2023, and all of 2024.
Boston pitchers have shut down the New York offense in this series, but the Yanks still have a .356 wOBA over the last two weeks against righties. Since the Red Sox got their hands on him, we’ve seen an increase in cutters and a decrease in sweepers out of May. I’m not sure about that move long-term, as the cutter has been May’s worst offering this season, but he’s been effective in his three starts.
The cutter has been as well, as he’s bumped the Whiff% on the pitch to 28% this month and opponents have one hit in 10 batted ball events this month. A trend that developed with May in July and has carried over to August is trading his poor sinker for more four-seam fastballs. The Red Sox, who have encouraged many of their pitchers to throw fewer four-seamers, are pushing May to go with the four-seam against lefties and sinkers against righties.
From a relief standpoint, yesterday’s blowout was big for the Red Sox. They used eight relievers on Tuesday and five on Thursday to set up a very busy week. Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock had worked three times in four days, but got a much needed day off yesterday. The Yankees bullpen is pretty fresh after Paul Blackburn saved them with 71 pitches in yesterday’s rout.
I don’t have a full-game side or total play here, but I do think Red Sox 1st 5 Run Line +0.5 (-110) is a decent look. May has been effective. The Red Sox are playing with a lot of confidence, but Rodon has been terrific at home and solid in his last three starts.
Pick: Red Sox 1st 5 Run Line +0.5 (-110)
Red Sox vs. Yankees Player Props
Carlos Rodon Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Rodon comes into this start with a season-long SwStr% of 12.6%. He has a Chase Rate of 28.9% and a Z-Contact% of 82.7%. Z-Contact% can be a good indicator of stuff quality because it shows the rate of swings and misses on pitches in the strike zone.
Over his last nine starts, though, Rodon has a SwStr% of 11% and one 20% outlier is doing a lot of heavy lifting, as only three of his nine starts are above his season average in that span. His Chase Rate is down to 27% and his Z-Contact% is up to 85.4%, which is still very good by league average standards, but obviously a bit of a downturn for him.
Rodon has struck out 5, 5, and 3 over his last three starts. In fact, he’s only gone Over 6.5 Strikeouts four times in his last 13 starts and three of them were against NL teams who don’t see him often at all.
