Sunday Night Baseball: Twins vs. Tigers
We’ve got some fresh blood on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball for June 29, as the Twins vs. Tigers matchup represents the first time since May of 2017 that Detroit has hosted the prestigious standalone game to wrap up the weekend. And, it just so happens that Tigers ace and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal will be on display for the national audience. The Twins will counter with Chris Paddack for this AL Central showdown.
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How to Watch Twins vs. Tigers
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday June 29, 7:10 p.m. ET
Twins vs. Tigers MLB Odds
Minnesota Twins +217 // Detroit Tigers -274
Total: 7.5 (-101/-120)
Twins vs. Tigers Game Preview
This is as good of a time as any to have the Tigers on SNB. Detroit had opened up a 10.5-game lead in the AL Central as of Sunday morning and it really doesn’t look like the Guardians, Twins, or Royals are going to have nearly enough to run them down. Detroit is the only team in the division with a positive run differential and they came into Sunday with the third-best one in the league.
In hopes of widening that figure today, they’ll turn to Skubal, who owns a 2.29 ERA with a 2.62 xERA and a 2.13 FIP in his 102 innings of work. On the heels of taking down the Cy Young Award, he actually has better numbers in terms of ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, K% and BB% this season, so he’s very much trending towards being the first repeat winner of the award since Clayton Kershaw in 2013-14 and first in the AL since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000.
He is coming off one of his lesser outings of the season and first since Opening Day against the Dodgers in which he allowed two homers in a start. He gave up four runs on six hits to the Athletics on June 24, his first start with more than three runs allowed since May 14 and just his third of the season in 16 outings. After averaging 98+ mph with his fastball in six straight starts from April 27 to May 25, he’s cut it back a little bit, likely to pace himself as he’s just halfway through the 2025 campaign.
Paddack, who comes in with a 4.64 ERA, 4.39 xERA, and a 4.28 FIP has the unenviable task of going toe-to-toe and pitch-to-pitch with Skubal to keep his team in the ballgame. Paddack only has 60 strikeouts over his 85.1 innings and his 64.4% LOB% showcases how hard it can be to strand runners without some swing-and-miss upside in the profile. His 9.1% SwStr% is well below league average and, as a point of comparison, Skubal has been below that number one time in 16 starts.
The Tigers offense, which deserves a lot of credit for this start to the season, may be catching Paddack at a really good time. He’s allowed 18 runs over his last 14 innings of work. Prior to this stretch, Paddack had only allowed four or more runs in a start twice and they were his first two starts of the season. Detroit entered play today fifth in wOBA at .328, as they’ve gotten above average production from most of the regulars and really hit a home run with the Gleyber Torres signing.
Minnesota boasts a slightly above average offensive group on the whole, but they have a sub-.400 SLG and a 102 wRC+. Against lefties, specifically, the Twins have a .303 wOBA and a 94 wRC+, so they are below average in that department and have a K% near 25%.
As hard as it is to “lay the double negative” of a -1.5 run line at a minus price on a home team, Skubal and the Tigers have the chance to shine in a spotlight game with Comerica Park packed to the extreme.
Pick: Tigers -1.5 (-127)
Twins vs. Tigers Player Props
Tigers 1st 5 Over 2.5 Runs (+105)
Not a player prop, but Paddack has only racked up 10 strikeouts over his last four starts, a span of 92 batters faced. Historically, his best pitch has been a changeup and the Tigers are tops in the league with +14.9 batting runs versus changeups per Statcast data. The offense should be plenty juiced up to face a guy that has been as bad as Paddack has over his last three starts. Paddack Under 3.5 Strikeouts at +115 is also of interest to me.
