Sunday Night Baseball: Yankees vs. Red Sox:
For the third time in less than two months, the Red Sox and Yankees will square off on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. The venue has changed back, as the last game at Fenway Park was June 16, but the most recent one was July 7 at Yankee Stadium. This is Boston’s third straight SNB appearance, as there was no game on July 14 and they played the Dodgers in this slot last week.
The Red Sox are 2-0 this season in these meetings and we’ll see if they can make it three, as sportsbooks seem split on who should be favored, with some lining the game as virtually a pick ‘em and others favoring the visitors and Carlos Rodon over Tanner Houck.
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How to Watch Yankees vs. Red Sox
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday July 28, 7:10 p.m. ET
Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Odds
New York Yankees -115 // Boston Red Sox -105
Total: 9 (-102/-112)
Yankees vs. Red Sox Game Preview
The Yankees and Red Sox have split the first two games of this high-scoring series. Boston drew first blood with a 9-7 win on Friday and the Yankees evened things up with an 11-8 triumph on Saturday.
The biggest story to me in this game is that both bullpens are gassed. The Yankees used six relievers to throw 115 pitches after using four guys on Friday with 80 pitches. Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, and Tim Hill have all worked back-to-back days.
On the Boston side, seven relievers were deployed on Saturday and six on Friday, leading to 184 total tosses. Kenley Jansen, Zack Kelly, Brennan Bernardino, Josh Winckowski, Cam Booser, and Bailey Horn have all worked back-to-back days. I think that makes this game a very, very challenging handicap over nine innings.
Rodon had seven masterful innings last time out against the Rays with 10 strikeouts and just a solo homer on his ledger. He was quite bad going into the All-Star Break with a 9.67 ERA and a 6.33 FIP over his last six starts, going 0-6 with 30 runs allowed in 27 innings. Perhaps the extra rest was exactly what he needed and he’ll be pitching with an extra day’s rest here.
Houck has been great this season and a big reason why the Sox control their own destiny for a playoff spot. He has a 2.71 ERA with a 3.82 xERA and a 2.83 FIP in 123 innings, which is 17 more than he’s thrown in any other MLB season. Houck did show some rust in his first start back with four runs allowed on 10 hits, but he did make that start at Coors Field.
With this weekend’s numbers influencing the totals, the Red Sox and Yankees rank first and second in wOBA at .381 and .380, respectively, here in the second half. A sight for sore eyes for Yankee fans to be sure.
What is not a positive sight is that the Red Sox bullpen has allowed a .299/.366/.511 slash this month and we’ve certainly seen their struggles firsthand this weekend. Somebody must have turned the offensive slider up because we’ve seen 305 runs across Friday and Saturday’s 31 games.
Betting a side is tough and I don’t like anything for the 1st 5, so I’ll default to a look at the Over given all the runs we’ve seen thus far.
Pick: Yankees/Red Sox Over 9 (-102)
Yankees vs. Red Sox Player Props
Tyler O’Neill Over 0.5 Home Runs (+330), Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
I typically like to find a higher price on a HR prop, but O’Neill has been locked in from a power standpoint and has hit nine homers off of left-handed pitching in 113 plate appearances. O’Neill draws Rodon tonight and he’s allowed 18 HR to right-handed batters in 409 PA and has allowed a .455 SLG overall. He’s given up 11 of those 18 on the road and has yielded a .491 SLG.
If nothing else, the total bases prop feels like some double protection on O’Neill, who has a .333/.442/.710 slash against lefties on the year, including eight doubles.
