Things have changed, but they’ve also kind of stayed the same for the Braves. Ex-manager Brian Snitker was forced out/stepped down after the season and has taken on an advisory role in the front office. Atlanta simply promoted bench coach Walt Weiss to take over and he shuffled things around, including the appointment of new pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, who was fired by the Mets at the end of last season. The Braves hired Hefner about a month after he was let go, so they moved quickly on the soon-to-be 40-year-old.
Hefner has ties to the Twins, along with new bullpen coach JP Martinez and new third base coach Tommy Watkins. New bench coach Tony Mansolino has ties to the Cleveland system, as well as the Orioles. These are all organizations that are very forward-thinking, as the Twins were led by former high-ranking Cleveland exec Derek Falvey before he was fired prior to Spring Training, and the Orioles went heavy on analytics when they hired Sig Mejdal and Mike Elias from the Astros. The 62-year-old Weiss had a tough go of it as manager of the Rockies from 2013-16, but he has a way stronger roster here and doesn’t have to deal with Coors Field.
While Weiss calls the shots, the most important coach is Hefner, as the drop-off for the Braves pitching staff, which allowed 127 more runs in 2025 compared to 2024, had a lot to do with last season’s poor finish.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
The three-year tumble for the Atlanta offense is something to discuss as well. The 2023 version led MLB in wOBA by 18 points, posting an obscene .359 mark with a 126 wRC+, slashing .276/.344/.501. To put that into perspective, the 2023 Braves are the only MLB team to ever slug over .500 as a group. The closest is the 2019 Astros during the juiced ball season, a season in which four teams broke the league record for home runs in a season. The 2023 Braves tied that record with 307. Rafael Devers had a .271/.351/.500 slash that season, so Atlanta hitters collectively performed at his level.
Since then, the Braves have had wOBAs of .315 (12th) and .315 (13th). Admittedly, I have no idea why 2023 was such an extreme outlier, with three 40+ homer guys and two more with 33+. Things have very much leveled off since then and the Braves had four guys with 20+ dingers last season, but nobody hit 30. Ronald Acuna Jr. would have, but he was limited to 95 games recovering from an ACL tear and then from some Achilles inflammation. Most of the lineup is pretty similar heading into 2026, though the Braves did get rid of Marcell Ozuna and picked up Mike Yastrzemski and Mauricio Dubon. Based on their batted ball data, the Braves were pretty unlucky last season with a .399 SLG and a .418 xSLG. They’re banking on track records and it’s hard to argue.
PITCHING
While there are some players who may need to revamp their swings, work on their launch angles, or simply find another way to get back to their usual standards on the offensive side, the pitching staff just needs to stay healthy. Bryce Elder led the team in starts with 28 and innings with 156.1 last season and hung a 5.30 ERA with a 4.72 xERA and a 4.55 FIP. It was a wasted season for Spencer Strider, who came back from Tommy John surgery, only to lose time to a strained hamstring. Spencer Schwellenbach suffered a fractured right elbow that cut his season short and will start the 2026 season on the 60-day IL, a huge blow before the team even started Grapefruit League play.
I cautioned buying stock in Reynaldo Lopez entering last season, as he threw 135.2 innings and made 25 starts in his first full season as a starter since 2019. He made one start for the Braves. Chris Sale was limited to 20 starts, but he was awesome when he was out there with a 2.58 ERA, 2.85 xERA, and a 2.67 FIP. In total, the Braves needed 19 different starting pitchers. When healthy, this is a good group and Grant Holmes proved his worth as a starter if need be. Didier Fuentes is also knocking on the door. The bad luck on the health front coincided with a big drop in performance by the bullpen, going from a 3.32 ERA and a 3.41 FIP to a 4.19 ERA and a 4.26 FIP.
PROSPECT WATCH
The Braves are in a tough spot. Most of their best prospects are in the lower levels of the minors and virtually none of them are position players, so it will be up to the proven big leaguers to play to their usual standards. The top pitching prospect is the aforementioned Fuentes, who made his MLB debut last season with four rather poor starts, allowing 20 runs on 23 hits in 13 innings of work. Atlanta has never had a problem with service time or putting kid gloves on prospects. They aggressively move them up the system. Fuentes won’t turn 21 until June and has 202.2 minor league innings to his name. I’d expect to see the Braves with a long list of non-roster invites to try and find depth in case of injury because it’s unlikely to come from below.
2026 OUTLOOK
Like I mentioned above, the pitching staff is the key for Atlanta and if the Spencers can get and stay healthy, they’ll greatly improve upon last year’s numbers. Offensively, it’s about bounce back seasons for Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies. Most of the others were solid, but Albies was second in PA with an 87 wRC+ and Harris was third in PA with an 83 wRC+, so 13% and 17% below league average, respectively. It’s the third season out of four for Albies as a below average bat and second in a row for Harris. To reach the expectations placed upon this team, it would help a lot for those two to be better.
BOLD TAKE: The Braves are in contention, but trade Chris Sale at the August Trade Deadline to get more prospects into the system (note: this bold take appeared in the MLB Betting Guide, released in mid-February, before the Braves signed Sale to an extension)
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
When healthy, this lineup is one of the most prolific in all of baseball. The operative phrase “when healthy” is front and center the last couple years with so many high-profile injuries, hindering the production over the last two seasons. All-stars RF Ronald Acuña Jr., 1B Matt Olson, 3B Austin Riley and 2B Ozzie Albies return with veteran DH Jurickson Profar taking over for free agent DH Marcell Ozuna. 2025 NL Rookie of the Year backstop C Drake Baldwin solidifies the middle of the order while 2022 Rookie of the Year CF Michael Harris II slots towards the bottom of the order. Offseason acquisition SS Ha-Seong Kim sustained a torn tendon in his right middle finger, so the earliest he might return will be mid to late-May, meaning INFs Jorge Mateo, Nacho Alvarez or Mauricio Dubón likely get the first shots to start. C Sean Murphy is recovering from hip surgery last September, so the bench consists of new signees C Jonah Heim and LF Mike Yastrzemski, with OF Eli White rounding out the depth options. On paper, this lineup should improve dramatically over a very average 2025 campaign (if healthy). I’d target Olson for another 30+ HR season and take shots on Riley at 25+ HR, as well as Harris II at 20+ HR too.
PITCHING
Health. That’s it. If this rotation stays healthy, it’ll be one of the best bounce-back years for a starting five in recent memory, as 2024 NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale anchors the top of the rotation, alongside Spencer Strider. Keep an eye on the velocity drop with Strider last year, as the post-injury problems presented themselves and affected performance significantly. Getting Reynaldo Lopez back to full strength will be a huge boost with the news early in camp that Spencer Schwellenbach will miss significant time with bone spurs. AJ Smith-Shawver is recovering from Tommy John surgery and likely won’t be available until after the All-Star Break either. Re-signing closer Raisel Iglesias AND getting free agent stopper Robert Suarez from the Padres makes the Braves back-end about as potent a 1-2 punch there is. Dylan Lee and Tyler Kinley will fill the early setup roles, alongside Aaron Bummer and Joel Payamps. The potency of the pitching staff takes a big hit with the early loss of Schwellenbach, so guys like Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder get opportunities to earn rotation spots. With rotation health already a prominent question mark, how many starters will be standing in September?
PROSPECT WATCH
Lots of intrigue atop the pitching prospect list for the Braves in LHP Cam Caminiti (cousin of the late Ken Caminiti), RHP JR Ritchie and RHP Didier Fuentes. All three are 22 years old or younger, but can provide impact anywhere from late 2026 to early 2027. There’s no question the bedrock of the Atlanta minor league system is rooted in their arms. Keep an eye on position players developing the next couple years in SS/OF Tate Southisene & SS Alex Lodise.
2026 OUTLOOK
Longtime manager Brian Snitker retired and Walt Weiss took over as the leading man in the Braves dugout. He’s incredibly familiar with the culture, expectations and urgency to get Atlanta back to prominence atop the NL East. There’s no sugar-coating where this organization is: the stars must be healthy and return to producing like the back of their baseball cards show. The excitement is worthy for a group that has championship DNA. No excuses for this team in 2026: challenging the Phillies and Mets for the top spot in the division is not only viable, but expected.
BOLD TAKE: The Braves win the NL East and fly over their win total, taking home 92+ victories
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
