Following back-to-back playoff appearances with 192 combined regular season victories, the Orioles were one of baseball’s most disappointing teams in 2025. It was a season, ahem, for the birds, as Baltimore went just 75-87 and got outscored by more than 100 runs. A total of 70 players and 41 pitchers appeared on the roster, as the Orioles dropped off in the batter’s box and on the pitcher’s mound.
Only two players – Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday – had more than 365 plate appearances. Five pitchers threw over 100 innings and four of them had an ERA of 4.19 or higher and two of them had ERAs of 5.21 and 5.42. In total, 16 different pitchers made a start. Maybe it was unfair of the organization to make manager Brandon Hyde a casualty for a situation that was about way more than him, but the reset button has been pushed with highly-respected Craig Albernaz, who had been AL Manager of the Year Stephen Vogt’s bench coach the last two seasons in Cleveland.
Where the reset button was not pushed was with the roster. Baltimore locked in free agent slugger Pete Alonso and high-leverage reliever Ryan Helsley, but was unable to get the front-of-the-rotation starter that they desperately needed.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
The Orioles finished the 2024 season with a 114 wRC+, meaning they were 14% above league average when adjusted for the run environment and park factor. The 2025 Orioles had a 96 wRC+. Hitting 44 fewer homers will do that. The loss of Anthony Santander, who, ironically, hit 44 HR in 2024 was part of the problem, but Henderson also saw his homer output cut by more than half. There were 94 players that hit 20+ HR last season. Baltimore had zero of them.
Despite a higher Barrel% as a team and a nominal drop in Hard Hit%, the O’s scored 109 fewer runs, a major problem with a shaky pitching staff. That is really all the justification needed for the Alonso signing, as he’s ranked in the 84th percentile or higher in Barrel% in every season of his career and just ranked in the 98th percentile for the first time last season. To further address their Barrel problem, Baltimore traded for Taylor Ward, who has been in the 84th percentile or higher in Barrel% in three of the last four seasons. In today’s high-strikeout, fielding-optimized environment, home runs matter a lot and this offense should perk up.
PITCHING
While the O’s didn’t get Ranger Suarez, Dylan Cease, or Framber Valdez, count me in on this rotation. Getting a ground ball merchant like Valdez in the rough-and-tumble AL East would have been spectacular, but a healthy rotation could be really special for Baltimore. Unfortunately, health is a skill and one that is hard to maintain. Kyle Bradish has been outstanding when healthy, but he’s made 14 starts over 71.1 innings in the last two seasons. Trevor Rogers had his second career breakout season with 3.3 fWAR and a 1.81/3.39/2.82 pitcher slash (ERA/xERA/FIP). The last time he did something like that was 2021 when he had 4.3 fWAR in 133 innings. In between, he had 2.1 fWAR over three seasons and made just 52 starts.
Interdivision trades are rare and any trade with the Rays carries inherent pessimism, but Shane Baz, one of four projected rotation members who have had Tommy John surgery, has high upside with a 24.5% K% over 1,196 batters faced and is coming off of his best season by GB% at 46.7%. Add in Zach Eflin back from a lumbar discectomy that cut short a wasted 2025 season and innings muncher Dean Kremer and I like the core group, but they’ll need to stay healthy since depth from below is limited, even with the Bassitt addition, and the retooled bullpen is limited on leverage arms beyond over-30 relievers in Helsley and Andrew Kittredge.
PROSPECT WATCH
While many will focus on C/DH Samuel Basallo, and deservedly so, my focus is on SP Trey Gibson. The undrafted free agent already touched Triple-A by essentially his second season in pro ball at the end of last year and probably just ran out of gas coupled with the increase in the degree of difficulty. I mentioned a ground ball merchant like Valdez? Well, Gibson isn’t quite that, but with well over a punchy per inning and a high rate of ground balls is an enticing arm. He also has roughly 90th percentile Extension to help his stuff play up. If injuries hit – and they will – expect him to debut.
2026 OUTLOOK
Albernaz got a managerial interview in Cleveland before agreeing to come on and work alongside Vogt, so I have no doubt that the Orioles got a good one, even if the heavy Boston accent turns off the fans a bit. I would like to think that the Orioles stay healthier, at least in the lineup, where a budding star like Colton Cowser battled busted ribs and saw drops in contact and power. Basallo should also hit regardless of position on the field or in the batting order. And the rotation has upside. Outlooks are predicated on health and good fortune for all teams, but even more so for the O’s in this division and with the thick medical files on these guys.
BOLD TAKE: Gunnar Henderson returns to his 2024 form (dealt with a shoulder impingement in 2025) and wins the AL MVP (22/1)
—
Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
For a lineup with so much momentum and promise at the end of the 2024 season, the 2025 campaign sputtered and stalled out by about mid-May, falling 10+ games out of first place in the AL East for the rest of the year. Can the “future-is-now” foundation of SS Gunnar Henderson, 2B Jackson Holliday, 3B Jordan Westburg, and C/DH Samuel Basallo revitalize their attack in 2026? Survey says: Yes, especially bolstered by the big bat of Alonso in a splash signing by the Orioles front office. Add in the shocking trade of Rodriguez that brought in Ward from the Angels and you’ve got a legit chance at Westburg, Henderson, Alonso, and Ward combining for over 110 HR. That’s an offensive surge you can buy. Adley Rutschman needs a major bounce-back campaign to help lengthen a lineup that will also feature young phenoms Holliday and Basallo, as well as 2024 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up OF Colton Cowser. The sky is the limit in Baltimore’s offense and they show every indication of rebounding in the runs scored department.
PITCHING
Orioles fans have been screaming for president of baseball operations Mike Elias to go get a top-line starter. Did he do that by acquiring Baz from the Rays? It’s definitely a good start, adding the power right-hander into the fold alongside holdovers Trevor Rogers and Dean Kremer. Staff ace Zach Eflin re-upped for one more year and a healthy Kyle Bradish could be the elixir the top of the rotation so desperately needs. A couple seasons ago, the Orioles bullpen was the envy of the baseball world, featuring arguably the most dominant closer at that time in Felix Bautista. Shoulder surgery in August last year will sideline him, forcing the O’s to go after veteran leverage relievers. Kittredge comes over from the Cubs to join Keegan Akin, who assumed the 9th inning duties at the end of 2025. Baltimore took a gamble signing Helsley, hoping that a change of scenery for the stopper is exactly what the doctor ordered.
PROSPECT WATCH
Most of the top players are in the big leagues, with Basallo and OF Dylan Beavers the latest graduates in 2025. OF Enrique Bradfield Jr. and P Trey Gibson are the next in line, should reinforcements be needed. Top 2025 draft pick and Golden Spikes Award winner, as well as SEC Player of the Year, SS Wehiwa Aloy, can probably speed through the system with his advanced skill set and notable power for a middle infielder.
2026 OUTLOOK
Craig Albernaz comes over from being bench coach with the Guardians to take over as skipper for the Orioles. There’s a lot of buzz already about his personality, impact, and attention to detail, after being highly sought after just a year ago for managerial openings. Don’t be shocked if he is a finalist for AL Manager of the Year. The acquisition of Alonso can’t be understated and cements the “aircraft carrier” this lineup needs. There’s balance, depth, and explosiveness up and down the order. A top-five offense after what we just witnessed a year ago would be as big a story there is this season.
Bold Take: Alonso hits 40+ HR and the Orioles win the AL East
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
