The standards remain high for the Fenway Faithful, but many are wondering why the front office doesn’t feel the same way. The dominoes started to fall with the Mookie Betts and David Price trade to the Dodgers back in 2020 and it seems like it has just been bad news since. Alex Verdugo has been a decent big-leaguer, but he never had a 2-WAR season for the Red Sox. It’s six years later and Jeter Downs has 50 career MLB plate appearances and spent last season playing in Japan. Connor Wong is a .245/.303/.377 player in 1,148 career plate appearances.
Failing to maximize an asset like Betts could be a kiss of death for other organizations, but not the Red Sox, right? Despite the Betts deal fallout, the Red Sox got Alex Cora back from his yearlong suspension and went to the ALCS in 2021. Then the bottom fell out. Back-to-back last-place finishes, an ill-fated decision to prioritize keeping Rafael Devers over Xander Bogaerts, only to ultimately lose both of them, a front office fiasco, and a fair amount of bad luck have led to a total of three playoff games in the last four seasons.
While the headlines painted a dark and murky picture, the Red Sox were busy developing some legitimate talent from within and are hoping that the major acquisitions of Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray via trade and the signing of Ranger Suarez fill last season’s holes.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
We’ll have to wait and see what Jose Bello and James Tibbs ultimately become for the Red Sox, but to lose a career 127 wRC+ player in Devers in mid-June and still make the playoffs is an impressive accomplishment. (Kyle Harrison from that trade was part of the package to acquire 3B Caleb Durbin from the Brewers in February.) The curve placed on playing in a hitter’s haven like Fenway Park did lower Boston’s wRC+ to 103 since park factor is a major part of the equation, but they were top 10 in BA, OBP, SLG, SB, and runs scored. And, incredibly, the pitching staff allowed fewer runs per game in that environment than on the road, so the offense benefitted in a much bigger way.
The Red Sox posted a 86 wRC+ from the first base position, which was the fifth-lowest in the league. Enter Contreras, who owns a career 122 wRC+ and should see his BB% spike back towards his 9.8% career mark after a down year at 7.8% last season that cut into his on-base percentage and other metrics. If Carlos Narvaez, who was an elite defensive catcher, hits too poorly, Triston Casas should return in the first quarter of the season and Contreras can catch. Roman Anthony had a 140+ wRC in his first 71 MLB games and looks like a bona fide star. With a lineup that was in the top five in Hard Hit%, top 10 in Barrel%, and terrific defensive numbers from guys who might not hit, this is one of the best position player groups in baseball.
PITCHING
It is rare when a pitcher who had a 3.12 ERA goes on to have a better career as a coach than he did as a player, but Andrew Bailey is on that path. The third-year pitching coach inherited a Red Sox staff that had just posted a 4.52 ERA with a 4.18 xERA and a 4.37 FIP in 2023, along with the ninth-highest Hard Hit% at 40%. Bailey came to the team with some shocking suggestions, such as “Throw your best pitch more often” and “Let’s throw fewer fastballs”. Early-season reporting highlighted how Bailey wanted to relax the staff’s usage of fastballs because they are often hit harder than offspeed pitches. It should also be noted that the Red Sox defense was -50 in Outs Above Average in 2023, worst in the league by far.
The 2024 Red Sox didn’t see a big spike in K% from throwing more breakers and benders. In fact, their K% was lower, but they allowed a 4.05 ERA with a 4.00 xERA and a 4.10 FIP. The trend of improvement continued in 2025 with a 3.72 ERA, 4.10 xERA, and a 3.98 FIP, posting a second straight season with a Hard Hit% below 40%. Of course, the Red Sox also got over 200 innings of dominance as a result of their gamble to acquire Garrett Crochet and keep him stretched out as a starter. With the immediate results from better pitch mixes, the Red Sox have gone all-in acquiring two deep-arsenal arms in Suarez and Gray, not to mention Johan Oviedo, whose fastball was worth -14.6 Pitching Runs in 2023, but he had good returns on his sinker, slider, and curveball returning from Tommy John last season.
PROSPECT WATCH
There are so many ways to go here, as Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell are all still youngsters and technically could be considered prospects. Connelly Early and Payton Tolle are also listed in AL Rookie of the Year markets. But, I want to talk about the next middle infield hotshot in Franklin Arias as an elite contact bat and plus defender. The 20-year-old finished the season at Double-A in his second full year of pro ball and has just 132 K in 1,057 career PA. There may be a logjam eventually, and the Red Sox have an embarrassment of riches they can use as currency to make a World Series push.
2026 OUTLOOK
When we get “super teams” in the NBA, the common sentiment is, “There’s only one ball”. Well, we’ll have to see how Cora distributes playing time here, as the young guns are beating on the door and some have already broken through it. Strikeouts could be a problem, especially with some impatient hitters towards the bottom of the order, but this should be a high-SLG lineup with plenty of plus defenders, and a much improved, more durable pitching staff. The Red Sox are also making a substantial push again with analytics and they’re likely to find surplus value on players as a result.
BOLD TAKE: The Red Sox are actually the main threat to the Blue Jays and the best World Series value bet from the division at 15/1
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
Welp, it’s not the offseason offensively that this Red Sox fan base had in mind. Alex Bregman is gone to Chicago, leaving a gaping hole of leadership in the Boston clubhouse and on the field. Enter 1B Willson Contreras, coming over with former Cardinals teammate Sonny Gray, to fill a much needed void at first base. He’ll position squarely in the middle of a lineup alongside Red Sox regulars DH Jarren Duran and SS Trevor Story. One of the brightest young stars in the game, LF Roman Anthony, returns after a terribly timed injury, ending his second half of 2025. RF Wilyer Abreu, the speculation of much trade talk along with Duran, remains in Beantown and lengthens a lineup that features C Carlos Narváez, newly-acquired 3B Caleb Durbin, 2B Romy Gonzalez and speedy CF Ceddanne Rafaela. Veteran OF Masataka Yoshida provides depth off the bench and 1B Triston Casas is hopeful to return from knee surgery he underwent last May. What will the drop-off (if any) be without Bregman? He seemed to be such a keystone in the Red Sox lineup and those responsibilities will fall on a handful of Boston thumpers to pick up the slack. It’s still a lineup with plenty of speed and versatility, but the expectations are far higher now with the momentum of 2025.
PITCHING
Is this the best rotation in baseball? On paper, it just might be. Ace and 2025 AL Cy-Young runner-up LHP Garrett Crochet will be right back in the running for the award in 2026. He’ll be flanked by standout LHP Ranger Suárez, who signed a 5-year/$175M deal in January, as well as veteran standout Sonny Gray, acquired in a November 2025 trade with St. Louis. It makes for a top three starting trio that’ll stack up against any in the Junior Circuit. Rounding out the rotation will be Brayan Bello and RHP Johan Oviedo, brought over in a deal with Pittsburgh. Closer Aroldis Chapman statistically stacked up as the best overall reliever in the game last year. His primary setup man, Garrett Whitlock, returns with Justin Slaten and Greg Weissert to boot. Quite the arsenal of arms that pitched Boston to the second lowest bullpen ERA in 2025.
PROSPECT WATCH
Plenty of top tier talent abounds in the Boston farm system, highlighted by top organizational prospects LHP Payton Tolle and SS Franklin Arias. Tolle, the Red Sox 2024 second round pick, will be a factor at some point this year, as will Connelly Early, who burst on the scene in the second half of 2025. Arias is almost a carbon copy of Marcelo Mayer, as far as the offensive tools are concerned and he’ll begin the year at Double-A. The real excitement beckons in a couple years when 2025 No.15 overall selection, RHP Kyson Witherspoon, potentially rockets through the minor league system. He’s got frontline starter stuff and a little seasoning with his slider and curveball will do him wonders when he reaches the big leagues.
2026 OUTLOOK
Manager Alex Cora returns to head a Red Sox team that’s come under fire for a lack of top target offensive additions this offseason. Can he lean on a starting rotation that should have its way with most opposing lineups, while getting a quick offensive start from Anthony, Story and Duran? Will Chapman keep defying Father Time and continue at his dominant pace? If that all materializes, Boston will put immense pressure on the rest of the AL East right out of the gates, firmly entrenched in a battle for the division title.
BOLD TAKE: Roman Anthony receives MVP votes and Boston makes a deep October run
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
