It is amazing how one season can dramatically shift a narrative. Had the Cubs not won the 2016 World Series to snap their 108-year drought, how would this team and this organization be viewed in present day? Since winning Game 7 that year, the Cubs have four postseason appearances and two playoff series wins. While they haven’t partaken in the immense spending sprees that some teams have, this was a top-six Opening Day payroll in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 before ownership pulled back a bit as that mid-2010s core aged out.
Still, this was a top-10 payroll in 2024 with a team that went just 83-79. With some of the talent that has rolled through the North Side of the Windy City, doesn’t it feel like pundits and prognosticators haven’t been tough enough on the Wrigley dwellers over the years? Coming off of a 92-win season – the most since 2018 – the Cubs have decided to spend and try and build on that success.
Armed with a retooled bullpen, a new third baseman, and a taste of the postseason, the push for NL Central supremacy seems a bit more aggressive this time around.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
No park in baseball is more impacted by the wind than Wrigley Field. When the wind is blowing out, hitters have the chance to put up video game numbers and we regularly see totals in the 11+ range. When the wind is blowing in, you’ll get a rogue 5.5, but a lot of 6s, 6.5s, and 7s. The seasonality and the temperatures matter as well, but you’re going to get a high-variance of data on a daily basis depending on how Mother Nature is feeling that day. While that’s something to chew on, here’s something else – the Cubs offense was a lot better in 2025 than it was in 2024 and it wasn’t just more favorable weather.
The Cubs were 13th in wOBA at .311 in 2024 and had a 100 wRC+, meaning they were exactly league average when adjusted for the league-wide run environment and park factor. They were seventh in wOBA at .325 in 2025 and had a 110 wRC+. Unfortunately, one of the big bats that helped the cause was Kyle Tucker, who is now with the Dodgers. He slashed .266/.377/.464 with a .363 wOBA, second only to Michael Busch among regulars. Seiya Suzuki had a big drop in production, attributed to his .370 BABIP normalizing to .282. That’s probably a little low for him, so he should improve. Also, Alex Bregman comes in off of the highest average exit velo and highest Hard Hit% of his career, so that’s a good sign moving forward.
PITCHING
As Justin Steele works his way back from UCL surgery, the Cubs will hope for Edward Cabrera to pick up some of the slack. The longtime Marlin is hardly a workhorse with a career-high of 137.2 innings at the MLB level, but he’s had a couple of good seasons, including a 3.53 ERA with a career-best 3.99 xERA and 3.83 FIP last season. Cabrera is a pretty valuable piece of this rotation at the outset because there are red flags littered throughout the rotation. Matthew Boyd was awesome over 179.2 innings of work with a 3.21 ERA and a 3.65 FIP, but he topped 79 MLB innings for the first time since 2019 and he turned 35 on Groundhog Day.
The pitch-to-contact stylings of Shota Imanaga are ripe for regression, as he had a 3.73 ERA with a 4.06 xERA and a 4.86 FIP thanks to a .219 BABIP and an 81.5% LOB%. His K% dropped from 25.1% to 20.6% and his Hard Hit% jumped over 4% with a 3% increase in Barrel%. All stats going in the wrong direction. Cade Horton was also living right with a .258 BABIP against and a 78.3% LOB%. Same with Jameson Taillon’s .232 BABIP and 80.3% LOB%. Cubs starters were eighth in ERA at 3.83, but 13th in xERA and 4.14 and 19th in FIP at 4.25. Only the Brewers and Rangers had higher ERA-FIP discrepancies to the negative side. Staying elite defensively will help stave off some regression, but likely not all of it.
PROSPECT WATCH
Cade Horton isn’t really a prospect anymore after throwing 118 MLB innings last season, but he merits more virtual ink here. The 24-year-old worked 147 innings across two levels last season and that was on the heels of working just 34.1 innings in 2024 across two levels and 88.1 innings in 2023 across three levels. The NL Rookie of the Year runner-up had a 4.86 ERA over 53.2 innings in his final season at Oklahoma. I think Horton overperformed last season, especially with a Hard Hit% over 41% and a 10% Barrel%. At any minor league level, he hadn’t had a F-Strike% over 55.6%. He was at 67.2% at the MLB level. Projection systems are calling for an ERA around 4.00 and I think those are fair.
2026 OUTLOOK
While the Cubs won 92 games and actually had a 96-66 record by Pythagorean Win-Loss, they only went 35-31 in the second half and have to replace Tucker’s production, while also hoping collective regression doesn’t hit the pitching staff. They were tied for first in Outs Above Average last season, but Pete Crow-Armstrong was +24 OAA himself and Nico Hoerner was +15, so the rest of the team was -3 OAA. While Matt Shaw was -1 OAA, he was +12 Defensive Runs Saved, so we’ll see how Bregman does over there and if Dansby Swanson (+57 OAA from 2022-24, +2 OAA last season) can bounce back. I still think this is a very good team, but asking for “great” might be a big ask with a lot of tipping points among individual players that could impact the whole group.
BOLD TAKE: Ian Happ gets traded to free up playing time for others and acquire pitching help during the summer
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
How much fun did fans have watching this group on the North Side in 2025? Get ready for more afternoon delights with almost the entire gang back. The newest addition in 3B Alex Bregman came as a shock to many around the league, but he joins 1B Michael Busch, LF Ian Happ and RF Seiya Suzuki to headline an attack that produced a top-five scoring offense and the sixth-most HR in MLB. Rookie sensation CF Pete Crow-Armstrong dazzled with his power and defensive prowess, but fell off a cliff in the second half. He’ll be looking to start 2026 with a bang, as will veterans 2B Nico Hoerner and SS Dansby Swanson. Youngster DH Moisés Ballesteros will see the lion’s share of designated hitter duties and C Carson Kelly fills out the rest of the lineup. A deeper bench with free agents 1B/OF Tyler Austin and OF Chas McCormick alongside C Miguel Amaya and INF Matt Shaw provide plenty of extra options as well. You can’t ask much more than what this group did a year ago. That will be the expectation, now with Bregman in tow, to replicate one of the best top-to-bottom lineups in baseball.
PITCHING
The league’s lowest WHIP and BB/9 for rotations in 2025? You’re looking at them: the Chicago Cubs starting pitching. LHP Matthew Boyd produced one of the most incredible individual seasons for a pitcher not really expected to perform the way he did. He’ll join budding staff ace and young phenom Cade Horton, back from a September injury that derailed what could’ve been an NL Rookie of the Year campaign. Holdovers Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon return with newly-acquired RHP Edward Cabrera in a big time trade with the Marlins. There’s also hope that former ace Justin Steele may be ready early in 2026 after rehabbing his UCL injury. What a makeover the Cubs bullpen undertook too, even after a stellar season a year ago. Closer Daniel Palencia is as vibrant a personality as he is a game finisher. Setting up for him will be new additions in Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Jacob Webb and Hoby Milner. An additional lefty in Caleb Thielbar gives the Cubs some of the best late-game matchups anywhere in baseball. Shortening games won’t be a problem on the North Side in 2026.
PROSPECT WATCH
Lots of graduations for former top prospects in Crow-Armstrong, Horton and Ballesteros leaves the minor league cupboard a bit bare at the moment, especially with highly touted OF Owen Caissie now in Miami after the Cabrera trade. OF Kevin Alcántara takes the mantle as the top organizational prospect, but already made his debut in 2025. That leaves RHP Jaxon Wiggins (No. 58) as the lone Chicago Top-100 MiLB prospect in the system. He’s got upper-90s heat with a devastating slider and could be ticketed for a mid-season promotion. OF Ethan Conrad is a well-rounded bat and very athletic player, giving him the chance to rise quickly.
2026 OUTLOOK
Manager Craig Counsell can expect more of the same in 2026: lots of scoring, lots of flash and lots of flying the W. The infield defense is elite, the lineup is long and the pitching staff feels even better than a year ago. If Crow-Armstrong makes swing decision adjustments from how the league exploited him in the second half, get your NL MVP tickets in on him before the season starts. Can the entire rotation hold up or will injuries curse them again? They’ve got all the talent in the world and an improved bullpen to go a long way. It’ll be exactly a decade, celebrating their 2016 World Series title. Make reservations for a long October at the friendly confines.
BOLD TAKE: Cade Horton becomes a legit NL Cy Young contender and the Cubs make it to at least the NLDS
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
