Making the playoffs is never a bad thing, but as a diehard fan of a small-market team with a cheap owner about four hours up the road, it can lead to false hope. The Reds snuck into the playoffs at 83-79 and did pretty much nothing for most of the offseason until Eugenio Suarez fell into their laps as a good designated hitter candidate in a place where his power can play up and maybe get him a better deal or net Cincinnati a good prospect at the Trade Deadline. Having more wins than losses is always a positive, but, again, the Reds probably overleveraged internally on what their players are actually capable of achieving as a result.
The Reds were 19th in wOBA and 24th in wRC+ in 2025 on the heels of finishing 20th and 26th, respectively in those two categories the year prior. The pitching staff was incrementally better as well, finishing 18th in ERA at 4.09 with a 4.25 FIP in 2024 and then 12th in ERA at 3.86 in 2025 with a 4.11 FIP. The net result was an increase of six wins and a playoff spot, but how much higher is the ceiling of the guys in-house? You could argue that baseball lifer and constant overachiever Terry Francona had something to do with it in his return to the dugout, but he’s not really a magician.
Who takes a leap to allow the Reds to reach new heights? Who finds that extra gear offensively to give the pitching staff more help? When will ownership actually invest in helping this team take a step forward? All fair questions to ask.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
Great American Ball Park is fourth in Statcast Park Factor over a three-year sample size and is second in HR park factor. And yet the Reds were 21st in HR overall last season and 16th in HR hit at home. Power either costs a lot of money to acquire or takes a certain level of development to achieve. Elly De La Cruz led the Reds with just 22 homers and they only had two players with 20+, as Spencer Steer was the other. Despite a favorable environment for power, the Reds haven’t had a 30-homer guy since 2021. One of the things that makes other teams successful is how they tailor their lineup to the inherent advantages of their home ballpark. The Reds don’t really do that.
The best hitter for the Reds with at least 200 plate appearances was TJ Friedl, who tied with De La Cruz with a 109 wRC+. Among 145 qualified hitters, a 109 wRC+ ranked tied for 79th. Those two were 67th and 69th, respectively in wOBA. Miguel Andujar had a 159 wRC+ in 110 PA, so not a big sample size, but he was productive. If we include him to be nice, the Reds have lost three of their eight highest guys by wRC+ from last season, as Austin Hays and Gavin Lux also both moved on. Suarez helps, but with little reinforcement coming from below, this looks like a poor offense again.
PITCHING
The pitching staff would sure love some run support. This group, especially the starting rotation, is quite solid. There were 47 pitchers with at least 100 innings and 2.5+ fWAR last season. The Reds had four of them. Andrew Abbott led the way with 3.9 and had a 2.87 ERA with a 3.55 xERA and a 3.66 FIP in 166.1 innings of work. Hunter Greene would have probably led the team, but he finished second with 2.9 fWAR over just 19 starts with a 2.76 ERA, 3.03 xERA, and 3.27 FIP. Brady Singer couldn’t maintain his early success, but still posted a FIP under 4.00 and made 32 starts, which was huge for the team.
As a starting staff, the Reds were ninth in ERA, third in xERA, and eighth in FIP. All of the main characters are back with the cast, as Nick Lodolo and Chase Burns round out the expected rotation. This will be a top-tier group again and the reason why you can’t completely discard the Reds, even if the offense looks suspect at best. After finishing 14th in relief ERA and 25th in FIP, the Reds swapped out some middle relievers, but are still running the same high-leverage arms with a group that will probably be league average at best.
PROSPECT WATCH
Even though the Reds have a lot of good young arms, like Burns, Rhett Lowder, Chase Petty, and Jose Franco, the offense is what really needs help and that’s why I’m looking at Hector Rodriguez. H-Rod slashed .283/.336/.450 across two levels with 19 HR and 15 SB. I think the more incredible thing is that he only had a 15% K% with a 56.1% Swing%. In his 53 games at AAA, Rodriguez swung at pitches outside the zone 46.2% of the time. He profiles as the kind of guy MLB pitchers can carve up, but he has also found a way to get the bat to the ball and pull it, mostly on the ground. I’m not sure where his contact authority metrics end up, but for a team that was 28th in Hard Hit% and Barrel%, anybody with promising power is intriguing.
2026 OUTLOOK
This is a team that probably has a limited range of outcomes. Their Pythagorean Win-Loss record was 85-77. Their actual record was 83-79. Their BaseRuns record was 81-81. This is a pretty average ballclub with an above average rotation, a below average offense, and an average at best bullpen. I would assume something similar for this season. Most of the upside prospects with a chance to debut or hang in The Show for a while are pitchers, which is helpful in case of injury, but it won’t help this soft-hitting lineup.
BOLD TAKE: Nick Lodolo gets traded during the summer for a hitter with a similar contract (FA after ‘27 season)
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
A lot of ups and downs for the Reds lineup in 2025 and plenty of discussion surrounds the lineup continuity heading into 2026. Table-setters CF TJ Friedl and RF Noelvi Marte start in front of superstar SS Elly De La Cruz, who anchors the middle of the order with 1B Spencer Steer and C Tyler Stephenson. Old friend 3B Eugenio Suárez signs a one-year, $15M deal for a second tour of duty and also provides some incredible power, while likely taking the DH role. Free agent signee LF JJ Bleday provides a little balance from the left side and will hope to lengthen a lineup that needs a big year from 2B Matt McLain. Gold Glove hot corner 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes finishes out the starting nine. For a team that plays in the cozy, hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, the 2025 Cincinnati offense really struggled in the power department, finishing 21st in HR. There’s not much speed to speak of, so the slugging and OPS numbers must improve for them to compete atop the NL Central.
PITCHING
If you want a rotation to dream on in 2026, you’ve arrived at it in the Queen City. Staff ace Hunter Greene looks to improve on a breakout 2025 campaign, followed by Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo and young fireballer Chase Burns. It’s an absolutely nasty rotation stuff-wise and you could flip a coin between Greene and Lodolo on who had the better season last year. All that said, the upside for the rest of the gang is sky high. Balancing the command of high-90s fastballs and wipeout off-speed will be the key to the Reds rotation success. They’ve got an improved bullpen to hand games over to, anchored by returning closer Emilio Pagán, with setup specialists Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft. They were phenomenal in helping the Reds to a playoff berth in 2025 and get complimentary reinforcements from free agents Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson and an under-the-radar trade acquisition in Brock Burke. Much better depth for this unit entering the marathon season than what they rolled out in 2025.
PROSPECT WATCH
Top-end pitching graduations in the last two years leave mostly position players to look at in 2026. There are, however, two notable arms that already made their big league debuts in RHP Rhett Lowder and RHP Chase Petty. They’ll be excellent depth options for this season and beyond. The consensus No.1 Reds prospect, Sal Stewart, in all likelihood splits some time at first base and DH on the Opening Day big league roster. That leaves several younger, developmental types in C Alfredo Duno, SS Tyson Lewis and SS Steele Hall. Keep your eyes on 3B Cam Collier and OF Héctor Rodríguez as well, with both players ticketed for at least Double-A Chattanooga, if not Triple-A Louisville.
2026 OUTLOOK
Surefire first-ballot Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona did wonders in year one with Cincinnati. A complete cultural shift and attention to detail produced one of the more memorable Reds seasons in recent memory. Now the challenge comes in improving on a club that will not sneak up on anybody this time around. The rotation is the clear foundation of the club and it’s a group that still has trouble staying healthy for a full 6 months. Greene is a Cy Young darkhorse, if he makes at least 30 starts. Offensive output can’t mirror its 2025 results or this team is destined for a .500 campaign trying to win a bunch of low-scoring games.
BOLD TAKE: Chase Burns finishes Top 3 in Strikeouts and Sal Stewart finishes Top 3 in NL Rookie of the Year voting
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
