We need to retire the phrase “hometown discount” because nothing will ever come close to what Jose Ramirez has provided the Guardians. The surefire Hall of Famer who might go down as the best third baseman ever, and will probably become the ninth player in history with 300 HR and 300 SB this season, gave Cleveland yet another gift this offseason by signing an extension that keeps him in The Land through his age-40 season.
Ramirez scored or drove in 188 of Cleveland’s 643 runs and was one of two position players (Steven Kwan) to post a fWAR higher than 1.5. The 1.5 was Bo Naylor, who batted .195/.282/.379, but was an excellent defensive catcher. I know that you need really gaudy numbers, typically in the HR department to win MVP, but find me a player more valuable to his team than Ramirez.
The thanks that ownership gave him, aside from the below-market contract he agreed to, was not improving an offense that ranked 28th in runs, 29th in batting average, OBP, and OPS, 20th in HR, and 30th in Hard Hit% and Barrel%. As a native Clevelander, the love-hate relationship I have with this team and the fact that Ramirez has given them an astounding amount of flexibility is hard to put into words.
Amazingly, while threading the needle with limited funds in an imbalanced financial system, the Guardians have won back-to-back AL Central titles and have made the playoffs seven times in the last 10 seasons. It’ll be a grind to make it three and a row and eight of 11.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
The hopes and dreams of the Guardians rest on the shoulders of unproven hitters with iffy health records. For Cleveland to improve on offense, it will be on Chase DeLauter, George Valera, Travis Bazzana (at some point), C.J. Kayfus, and maybe Cooper Ingle. Valera posted a 113 wRC+ over a minuscule sample size of 48 plate appearances. That was the same mark as Kyle Manzardo, who hit 27 homers to derive most of his offensive value since he only batted .234 and struck out over a quarter of the time. The league average Hard Hit% was 40.9%. Five Guardians with at least 100 PA were above that number – Nolan Jones, Manzardo, Gabriel Arias, Daniel Schneemann, and Jhonkensy Noel. They batted .211, .234, .220, .206, and .162, respectively.
How this team made history overcoming a 12.5-game deficit in late August is still a mystery, though Naylor did slash .290/.324/.548 in September after making some swing adjustments. Bat speed is the new holy grail for hitters, much like spin rate has been with pitchers. The Guardians ranked 27th in that department. Based on batted ball direction, launch angle, exit velocity, and other factors, the Guardians had a xSLG of .367, lowest in the league. If the kids hit, the Guardians can make strides here. If the kids don’t hit, this will be one of the worst units in the league.
PITCHING
Fortunately, the Cleveland Pitching Factory is still alive and well. The staff was fourth in ERA at 3.70 and eighth in FIP at 3.95. Given that the starting staff was a bit discombobulated throughout the season, it was quite an accomplishment. Also, Tanner Bibee had a 4.24 ERA with a 3.62 xERA, so one of the staff aces fell on the wrong side of luck. On the other hand, Gavin Williams had a 3.06 ERA with a 4.29 xERA, so it more than evened out it would appear. Seven huge starts from Parker Messick and 10 strong outings from Joey Cantillo proved to be incredibly valuable, plus the bullpen found a way to rally and get a lot of outs despite the suspension of Emmanuel Clase.
Assuming that the rotation doesn’t run into health problems in Goodyear, the average age of the five starters likely to break camp is 26.7, so we’re talking about guys that still have room for growth, especially a guy like Slade Cecconi, who is starting his second season in the system. The loose change that Paul Dolan found in the couch cushions went to bullpen reinforcements for a group that is third in appearances (Nationals, Dodgers) over the last two seasons, but Shawn Armstrong is the only sort-of high-leverage addition.
PROSPECT WATCH
There are a lot of interesting prospects in this system, and I encourage you to look up Ralphy Velazquez, but DeLauter has to go here. All he’s done since going pro is hit and get hurt. He was 1-for-6 with a walk and a single in the AL Wild Card Series, which was his MLB debut. Those two games added to the 138 he’s played in the minors, plus some fall ball, are all we’ve seen since he was drafted in 2022 because of a litany of injuries. But, he can undoubtedly hit, slashing .302/.384/.504 in 583 minor league PA with only 80 K. The Guardians are really gambling that he’ll stay healthy (and be able to handle CF) based on their inaction to add to the lineup.
2026 OUTLOOK
As depressing as the offense projects to be, this organization just finds ways to win games. They’ve had two losing seasons since 2013 and one was 80-82 back in 2021. The 2023 season is the only objectively poor showing in over a decade and that was with Terry Francona halfway out the door. One thing Cleveland has been able to do well is take advantage of the division. Unfortunately, Detroit and Kansas City have both been better recently and even the doormat White Sox improved this winter. All the dice rolls with lineup and even a little gamble in the rotation are major concerns.
BOLD TAKE: Hunter Gaddis (151) and Cade Smith (150) are second and third in pitcher appearances over the last two regular seasons. Both get hurt, among others, and the Guardians finish below .500
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
When you look up surreal in the dictionary, you’ll find a picture of the 2025 Cleveland Guardians offense next to it. How did a team ranked 28th in runs scored, 29th in average, OBP, OPS and 20th in HR rattle off one of the most improbable come-from-behind division winning performances in MLB history? Unexplainable in so many ways, but Guards Ball provided the theatrics, winning the AL Central on a walk-off home run in their final regular season game, after trailing the Detroit Tigers by as many as 15.5 games. Future Hall of Fame 3B Jose Ramirez is the heart and soul of the team, flanked by All-Star LF Steven Kwan and cleanup hitter 1B Kyle Manzardo. A host of young, unproven position players will find every-day roles this season, including RF George Valera, highly touted CF Chase DeLauter and DH CJ Kayfus. Young regulars C Bo Naylor and SS Brayan Rocchio, along with 2B Gabriel Arias fill out the remaining order. The single biggest question of the Guardians offseason: how do you not go out and get at least a proven veteran bat or two in helping Ramirez in the lineup? President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti is gambling that his young corps of position player prospects will produce and it’s a massive bet on the unknown.
PITCHING
“Pitching U.” is the longstanding nickname for the pipeline that is the Guardians minor league developmental system on the mound. Homegrown aces Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee are set to lead the rotation, with Slade Cecconi taking a massive step forward in 2025. Joey Cantillo is a name to watch and may be worth a sprinkle in the AL Cy Young race. Parker Messick came up to the big leagues in the second half and absolutely wowed, en route to becoming as reliable a starter down the stretch as Cleveland had. The bullpen, once anchored by the best closer of the last couple years in Emmanuel Clase, dealt with the gambling-related off-field issues in stride. Closer Cade Smith stepped in seamlessly and will once again have the ninth inning duties in 2026. Hunter Gaddis is as good a setup man there is in the league and he’ll get help from freshly-signed Armstrong, as well as returning Erik Sabrowski, Matt Festa, Tim Herrin and Connor Brogdon round out a very deep Guardian pen, which posted the third-lowest ERA in all of MLB.
PROSPECT WATCH
All eyes focused on CF Chase DeLauter throughout last year and when he made his MLB debut during the playoffs, the fans in Cleveland loved it. He graduates from a Guardians farm system still with 2024 No.1 overall selection, INF Travis Bazzana. There’s speculation that Bazzana will get a chance to win the second base job in camp against Arias. Other notable position player prospects include SS Angel Genao and 1B/OF Ralphy Velazquez. High-octane arms in RHP Daniel Espino and RHP Khal Stephan are the next wave of power rotation hurlers.
2026 OUTLOOK
Second-year skipper Stephen Vogt won back-to-back AL Manager of the Year Awards for the historic divisional comeback, overtaking the Tigers on the final day of the season. To say last year’s job took years off his life is an understatement. Fast forward to the challenge ahead in 2026 and he’s faced with the same predicament: outside of Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, who can you rely upon to produce offensively? The pitching staff will once again be tasked with keeping the offense close enough to win lots of low-scoring affairs. Strap in for another nail-biting year from the corner of Carnegie & Ontario.
BOLD TAKE: Chase DeLauter & Travis Bazzana combine for 50+ HR
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
