Tarik Skubals don’t grow on trees. In the past, the Tigers would pony up, much like they did with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, with no regard for payroll. Things have been different since Mike Ilitch died, leaving the team in the hands of his son. Christopher Ilitch has not been as willing to spend the family fortune, letting an aging roster full of players expire and fall off the payroll while not being a huge participant in free agency.
Per Cot’s Contracts, the Tigers ran a top-five Opening Day payroll every year from 2012-17. Mike died in 2017 and the cost cutting began, as Detroit hasn’t been higher than 17th in Opening Day payroll since (they will be this season). Through savvy trades, player development, and a good managerial hire in AJ Hinch, the Tigers had back-to-back playoff appearances in 2024-25 for the first time since 2013-14. But, this could be their last hurrah with Skubal since a massive contract awaits and both sides were reported to be extremely far apart on value.
Even with the Skubal-sized elephant in the clubhouse, this team should be the AL Central favorite and has the best chance to win the division, especially with the somewhat-shocking addition of Framber Valdez in early February.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
Want a powerful example of how things are different with the Tigers? Their projected starting lineup features six homegrown draftees and an international free agent who grew up in the system. Gleyber Torres is the only big-ticket free agent slated to be in the everyday 9 and only two seasons are left on the disastrous Javier Baez contract. The Tigers have also held on to two top-10 prospects in Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark because their trades have been more about acquiring supplemental pieces as opposed to looking for a blockbuster deal.
The Tigers scored 76 more runs in 2025 compared to 2024 and have improved in the win column in each of the last four seasons while also scoring more runs year over year. The 2024 lineup was 25th in wOBA, while the 2025 group made a huge jump to 12th. There aren’t any stars, but there are a bunch of very solid players, as the top seven guys in plate appearances ranged from a 109 wRC+ (9% above league average) to 121. Most importantly, the Tigers stayed healthy, with 10 players going over 300 plate appearances. Nobody dramatically overperformed relative to their expected metrics and a few guys actually underperformed, including Torres. Running it back with this same group means Detroit should be above average offensively.
PITCHING
The offensive uptick couldn’t have come at a better time because even a Cy Young season from Skubal wasn’t enough to help the Tigers repeat their 2024 pitching numbers. The Tigers were fourth in ERA (3.63) and second in FIP (3.70) two seasons ago. They were 17th in ERA (3.97) and 15th in FIP (4.05) this past season. The Core Four of Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, and Reese Olson were all back until Olson had season-ending surgery in early February. Flaherty was unlucky with a 4.64 ERA to go with a 3.97 xERA and a 3.85 FIP, so he’s a positive regression candidate.
The unknown in the rotation was the fifth spot, but the signing of Valdez and post-Super Bowl reunion with Justin Verlander cleared that up. What was kind of a lack of starting pitching depth is no longer a concern, as the Tigers previously cobbled together Johnny Wholestaff games with Brant Hurter, Troy Melton, and Tyler Holton in high-leverage spots. Now those guys can be used almost exclusively in relief with new closer Kenley Jansen and everybody falling into line behind him.
PROSPECT WATCH
We should find out quickly whether or not Zach McKinstry’s first MLB season with a wRC+ over 89 (114) was a mirage or not. He’s still a good baserunner and decent defender, but McKinstry has the aforementioned McGonigle lurking over his shoulder. The 2023 competitive balance pick has raked at every level and owns a .308/.410/.512 slash over 818 minor league plate appearances. He also thoroughly impressed in the Arizona Fall League with a .362/.500/.719 slash and a 12/19 K/BB ratio over 19 games. It’s a rapid ascent for a cold-weather prep player from the Philly area, but this kid is a hitter and he’s probably not going to be blocked for long.
2026 OUTLOOK
The Tigers were the only AL Central team to have a winning record against teams .500 or better and it took a 7-17 September for the Guardians to run them down. Before that disastrous month, and the Tigers did get revenge when it mattered more, Detroit was on a 94-win pace. Nothing about last season’s performance felt fluky or unsustainable and the Tigers did what Cleveland did not. They struck the hot iron and struck it hard. The addition of Valdez, what it means for the bullpen, and the likelihood of the offense improving from within has positioned this team as a legitimate AL Pennant candidate.
BOLD TAKE: Riley Greene finishes in the top 10 in MVP voting (17th last year)
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
Finally! The offense returned to Motown in a big way to start the 2025 campaign. Averaging nearly 4.97 runs per game in the first half, the Tigers bludgeoned their way to a 15.5-game lead in the AL Central. After the All-Star Break, the runs evaporated, the power disappeared and so did Detroit’s lead in the division. A monumental second-half collapse is what the 2026 Motor City Kitties are looking to put behind them. All-Star LF Riley Greene headlines a lineup returning many young, homegrown Tigers in 3B Colt Keith, DH Kerry Carpenter and 1B Spencer Torkelson. C Dillon Dingler broke out in a big way, both offensively and defensively – look for him to be among the best catchers in the AL this season. 2B Gleyber Torres re-signed for one more year, atop the Tiger order. Role players RF Wenceel Pérez, SS Zach McKinstry and CF Parker Meadows round out the lineup. One of the great stories in 2025 came in OF Javier Báez making the All-Star team and providing as good a season as he’s had in his career. He’ll find a home again somewhere in the outfield. Will it be another scintillating start for Detroit’s offense this year? Carpenter, Greene, and Torkelson will need to provide the power, along with Keith and Torres setting the table.
PITCHING
Same time. Same station. Same Tarik Skubal. Back-to-back AL Cy Young awards for arguably the best pitcher in the game and a third one squarely in his sights to start 2026. It took until February, but the surprise of the offseason might be Detroit landing free agent Framber Valdez. With Skubal and Valdez, at least initially, there’s no better 1-2 punch in an American League rotation. Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize provide much needed support while future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander signs back with the organization that drafted him second overall in 2004. The Tigers hope young phenom Jackson Jobe can recover quickly from Tommy John surgery he underwent last June, potentially providing a major boost to the staff. Grizzled veteran closer Kenley Jansen joins the Detroit bullpen as their new stopper, with setup men Will Vest, Kyle Finnegan and Tyler Holton all providing quality leverage innings. The Tigers need a boatload more swing-and-miss this season, finishing dead-last in that category amongst MLB bullpens. Nothing super flashy about this group, but they’re battle-tested and reliable.
PROSPECT WATCH
It’s a wealth of top talent, with two players occupying Top 10 spots overall in MiLB. Organizational top prospect and No. 2 overall in MiLB is Tigers stud SS Kevin McGonigle. While not physically imposing, the kid just flat out rakes. Above-average power and speed, his swing decisions are truly elite for a player not even 22 years of age. Not a matter of if, but when he makes his way to Comerica Park this season. Right behind him is OF Max Clark, also No.10 overall in MiLB. Easy speed in center field, he’s projected as a leadoff hitter and can be the Tigers table-setter for years to come. Keep your eyes on SS Bryce Rainer, C/1B Josue Briceño, C Thayron Liranzo and LHP Andrew Sears in the coming years as well.
2026 OUTLOOK
Manager A.J. Hinch nearly fell victim to a firing after the historic second half collapse that saw his Tigers lose the AL Central on the final day of the regular season. He saved face with a Wild Card series win over Cleveland. The worries are the offensive hangover from 2025 and the inevitable trade of Skubal coming. The Tigers are still contenders, but how long can they realistically compete without arguably the best pitcher in the game? It’s no juggernaut of a division, but the AL Central margin for error gets narrower each year.
BOLD TAKE: Tarik Skubal’s workload catches up with him and he sustains a midseason arm injury
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
