There are a lot of fanbases out there that would kill for an 87-75 season. Over a full 162-game campaign, it is the worst record that the Astros have finished with since 2016. On the heels of getting bounced in a two-game sweep in the 2024 Wild Card Round, it is fair to wonder if we’re finally starting to see the downfall of the Astros. With a front office brain drain, the core group hitting the aging curve or getting too expensive to keep, and other organizations getting smarter, the Astros don’t seem to have the same edges.
Not only did last season’s team miss the playoffs, but they also only had a +21 run differential, the lowest for the team since 2014 outside of the 2020 COVID year. Their .514 Pythagorean Win-Loss percentage with a .537 actual win percentage means that they were more like an 83-79 team. BaseRuns, Fangraphs’ context-neutral standings metric, had them 82-80. Clay Davenport’s 3rd Order Win% had them 81.3-80.7. With a 27-17 record in one-run games, the Astros were able to overperform a bit. Oh, and they had a losing record within the division for the first time since 2014 (excluding 2020).
For the most part, the Astros kept the status quo on the roster front. Will they be able to slow the downward trajectory?
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
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This offense has been going in the wrong direction for a while now, going from a .332 wOBA in 2023 to a .321 wOBA in 2024 to a .312 wOBA this past season. Injuries have played a role, obviously, as Kyle Tucker missed a big chunk of 2024 and Yordan Alvarez was limited to 48 games in 2025. Carlos Correa’s resurgence after returning to Houston helped a lot in the second half, along with a breakout season with the stick for both Jeremy Pena and Isaac Paredes.
When all was said and done, seven of the top 11 in plate appearances had a wRC+ of 104 or higher, with another player at 99 in Christian Walker, who still hit 27 home runs. As a unit, the Astros were 27th in BB% and put a lot of balls in play, but not authoritatively. Houston finished 26th in Hard Hit% and 18th in Barrel%. To finish third in Pull% and not really do much with it is concerning, but that’s what can happen with 3,833 R v. R plate appearances, easily the most in the league. Without Alvarez, the Astros didn’t have much lineup balance and something that they got away with in the past is not something they can get away with to the same degree now.
PITCHING
The decline in offensive production has been pretty clear, but the Astros continue to do well getting outs. A year over year increase of 0.11 runs in ERA was mostly offset by having a lower xERA and an almost identical FIP. ERA is a byproduct of sequencing and luck, whereas other run estimators are going to strip those components out. Injuries didn’t help last season, as Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown made 31 starts apiece and nobody else made more than 14. Hayden Wesneski, a main piece in the Tucker trade with the Cubs, needed Tommy John in May. Ronel Blanco needed it in June.
It is going to be fascinating to see how the Astros make up 192 really good innings from Valdez, who had a 3.66 ERA with a 3.77 xERA and a 3.37 FIP. Hunter Brown was aces with a 2.43 ERA, 3.15 xERA, and a 3.14 FIP, but then what? Ryan Gusto was tied for third in starts with 14 and got traded to Miami for Jesus Sanchez. Colton Gordon also had 14 starts and ran a 5.34 ERA and 5.37 FIP. Lance McCullers also had lackluster numbers, while Spencer Arrighetti did not take the leap many had hoped for. The floor for this staff is high because of how good Brown and the high-leverage relievers are, but the ceiling isn’t in my mind.
PROSPECT WATCH
He’s not truly a prospect at 27, but he’s a rookie by MLB standards and he’s going to have to carry a big load for this Astros team. Tatsuya Imai was outstanding with Seibu in Japan. The slender right-hander posted a 3.15 ERA in 963.2 innings in the NPB, but he only had a 22.3% K% and an 11.5% BB%, which he has cut down in recent seasons. The cadence of starting at the MLB level is a lot different, so we’ll see how he adjusts, plus MLB hitters are objectively better than NPB hitters. Imai was tremendous at preventing home runs in Japan with an assortment of breaking balls that he’s brought stateside, but there is a learning curve to the culture, the experience, and, obviously, the competition.
2026 OUTLOOK
Counting the Astros out seems foolish, but this team does not impress me much. The Mariners, Rangers, and Athletics are all better this season than they were last season in my opinion and Houston seems the same, if not worse without the innings-munching power of Valdez. For a team that graded like an 81-83 win team by the advanced standings metrics, that may simply be what we are looking at. With Jose Altuve aging, Alvarez’s contract up after 2028, and Jeremy Pena looking to get paid very soon, the Astros are in a precarious spot moving forward.
BOLD TAKE: The Astros may very well have their first losing 162-game season in more than a decade
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
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The envy of the American League a few years ago, this Houston offense is a much different animal heading into 2026. What a difference a handful of injuries to DH Yordan Alvarez and SS Jeremy Peña make to a lineup that also sorely missed 3B Alex Bregman and RF Kyle Tucker. Both Peña and Alvarez are healthy headed into this season and will lead an order with franchise cornerstone 2B Jose Altuve, 3B Carlos Correa and 1B Christian Walker. C Yainer Diaz is one of the better all-around backstops in the league and lengthens the order in front of LF Zach Cole and CF Jake Meyers. It still may be the worst offensive outfield in the league and that’s a problem in the very competitive AL West. One pressing question: where will INF Isaac Paredes play? With Alvarez returning as DH and Correa manning the hot corner, Paredes is “without” a position currently. Can the bottom of the order do anything to improve a run-scoring group that finished in the bottom third of MLB in 2025? The heavy lifting all centers on the top three in the order and that’s a heavy burden to bear.
PITCHING
The heir apparent to departed rotation ace Framber Valdez is Hunter Brown. He put together as dominant a season as any American League starter and looks to do even better, leading a much different looking Astros rotation in 2026. Holdovers Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. are back from injuries and will need to post at least 25+ starts each. Good luck with that happening. newly-acquired Tatsuya Imai became a shocking signing in January, but a necessary one for the time being. Mike Burrows, traded over from the Pirates, is an under-the-radar name to watch. The Houston bullpen still features arguably the best 1-2 punch to close out games in Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu. In front of them, young Bryan King burst onto the scene in 2025 as a dependable leverage reliever. Enyel De Los Santos, Steven Okert, free agent signee Nate Pearson and Rule 5 selection Roddery Muñoz fill out the rest of the relievers. It’s still a dominant pen – the question will be how hard do they get worked early on if rotation injuries hit again?
PROSPECT WATCH
Hard to find a lot in the Astros farm system to get excited about, but a few bright spots are 2B Brice Matthews and SS Xavier Neyens. Matthews is probably starting the year in Triple-A Sugar Land, but the upside is definitely there, only a couple years removed from being drafted No. 28 overall in 2023. Neyens has sick raw power for a 19-year-old and he might benefit from a position change to 3B with his physical frame. RHP Miguel Ullola is likely next man up for the rotation and a potential breakout candidate is RHP Bryce Mayer. It’s a system devoid of depth and that might get exposed in the next year or two.
2026 OUTLOOK
Manager Joe Espada needs credit for doing so much with so little last year. Through all the injuries, the offensive inconsistencies and everything in-between, this Astros team STILL had a shot at the division title into the final two weeks of the regular season. The worry is the rotation, plain and simple. How long will the arms behind Brown stay healthy? Will age finally catch up to Altuve and Correa? Can Alvarez play in 120+ games? So many questions for a team that will have its hands full in a highly competitive AL West.
BOLD TAKE: Houston barely finishes above .500 and misses the playoffs
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
