Last offseason, Kansas City’s biggest moves were off the field. This offseason, their biggest moves have literally been on the field. Prior to the 2025 season, the Royals extended Michael Wacha, signed Carlos Estevez and Mark Canha, and also reunited with Trade Deadline acquisition Michael Lorenzen. Prior to the 2026 season, the Royals are reimagining the Kauffman Stadium outfield.
The Big K is a great venue for singles, doubles, and triples, but not for hitting home runs. It is a very spacious outfield with a lot of ground to cover, with Baseball Savant data showing that it is the second-largest playing field area in the Majors (Coors Field is No. 1). Kauffman Stadium also had the second-deepest average fence distance at 384 feet, two feet shorter than Coors Field, where, of course, the ball carries better because of the elevation and other atmospheric factors. So, the Royals bankrolled a big study and decided to move the fences in nine feet down the lines and 10 feet in the gaps, with a seven-foot adjustment in between to straightaway left and right field.
Purely a coincidence after drafting Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen, right? Dayton Moore and the predecessors of the current regime weren’t as analytically-driven as this crew is and it is going to keep yielding positive results.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
The new dimensions should help those two youngsters, but also Bobby Witt Jr., whose Barrel% and launch angle numbers suggest he should have more home runs than he does. Witt has hit 105 career homers and Statcast xHR numbers give him more homers than that in 22 of the 30 parks. Interestingly, three of the parks where he’d have fewer xHR are in the AL Central. The Royals had a .307 wOBA, but a .318 xwOBA based on their batted ball data. They also had a .397 SLG with a .416 xSLG. Not all of that can be attributed to Kauffman Stadium, but the changes could be substantive for this offense.
This is a contact-oriented lineup. It makes sense. The batter’s eye at Kauffman Stadium must be one of the best in baseball because it is the venue with the lowest Strikeout Park Factor over the last three years. Some of that has to do with the composition of the offense, but the Royals had an 18.2% K% last season, second only to the Blue Jays. But, they also only walked 7.2% of the time, 29th in the league ahead of the Rockies. Full seasons of Caglianone, Jensen, and a valuable hitter in Isaac Collins from the Brewers will improve this offense and the park changes will help. With 81+ games at Kauffman Stadium, the changes are going to mentally help the hitters and there’s no way to quantify that impact, but it will have one.
PITCHING
Hitters are happy about the changes, but pitchers probably aren’t too excited. Because of the hitter-friendly backdrop, the Royals pitching staff has some depressed K% numbers, meaning that they, too, could be negatively impacted with how much they pitch to contact. KC did have a K% drop year over year, but Cole Ragans only made 13 starts this past season over 61.2 innings compared to 32 starts and 186.1 innings the season prior. I’d expect more punchies from Noah Cameron going forward, a southpaw who only had a 20.5% K% at the MLB level, but a 29.8% K% in the minors over 334.1 innings.
This is a really, really good rotation. I correctly predicted a season of regression for Seth Lugo, who had a career year in 2024, and I’m still concerned about him this season, but Ragans, Cameron, Kris Bubic, and one of my favorite arms in the system, Ryan Bergert, make for a deep group. The Royals also bolstered the bullpen with Matt Strahm and Nick Mears via trade in December. As a top-10 staff in ERA and HR prevention last season, I think they’re better this season.
PROSPECT WATCH
The aforementioned Caglianone had a miserable pot of coffee as a rookie with a .239 wOBA and a 46 wRC+ in his 232 plate appearances. He chased over 40% of the time, had a SwStr% of nearly 13%, and hit way too many ground balls. He was also just drafted in 2024 and only played 29 games of pro ball before decimating AA and AAA pitching prior to his call-up in 2025. He was as pure of a hitter as you can get in college with a .355/.447/.760 slash and 75 HR in just 165 games. Growing pains were inevitable, but I’d hardly consider them a red flag.
2026 OUTLOOK
This is a high-floor team. It’s cliche, but they just have a lot of ballplayers. Bat-to-ball guys. Some guys with thump. Three guys with 20+ steals. Three elite defenders in Witt, Maikel Garcia and Kyle Isbel, who combined for 53 Outs Above Average last season. A legitimate ace and a bunch of league average or better starters. A plus bullpen. The ceiling will come from Caglianone and Jensen. If those guys are 110+ wRC+ bats, then we’re probably talking about a playoff team.
BOLD TAKE: Bobby Witt Jr. has the first 40/40 season in the AL since Alex Rodriguez in 1998
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
The finish to 2025 is what most thought the Royals might do at the beginning of the season: more power, more speed and more runs. They couldn’t score to save their lives in the first two months of the season and it snuffed out any hope of challenging for the AL Central title. This year, you’d expect the urgency from Day 1 is there and no better place to start than a lineup anchored by MVP candidate SS Bobby Witt Jr. Breakthrough performances from 3B Maikel Garcia and 1B Vinnie Pasquantino make the top three in this order as good as it gets in the American League. The “Caymus of Catchers” in Salvador Perez returns for what feels like his 20th season (it’s his 15th) and young phenom RF Jac Caglianone is primed for a 30+ HR season. Rookie DH Carter Jensen also deserves a serious look in fantasy baseball lineups, but will provide much needed production from the bottom third. The Royals will need to get consistency out of second base and both left and center field, with Jonathan India, newly-acquired Isaac Collins and returnee Kyle Isbel slotted for those starting spots. This order doesn’t have far to go and a drastic improvement from their 2025 overall performance is almost a certainty.
PITCHING
Quietly, this Kansas City rotation is one of the deepest in the American League. Staff ace Cole Ragans suffered an early season injury that kept him from continuing a dominant finish to the 2024 campaign, but he returns and will be a fixture in the AL Cy Young race. Veteran stalwarts Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo follow Ragans, but the big shot in the proverbial arm came from Kris Bubic last year. He’ll team with second-year southpaw Noah Cameron to round out the Royals starting five. It’s a very confident and consistent group, one capable of big things at every turn. The bullpen is vastly improved in front of All-Star closer Carlos Estévez, setup men Lucas Erceg and John Schreiber with the additions of former Phillies Matt Strahm, Brewers Nick Mears and Tigers Alex Lange. They easily go six leverage relievers deep and many have late-inning experience to even the workload. Can they generate a lot more swing and miss in 2026? If they do, watch out – the sky is the limit.
PROSPECT WATCH
Caglianone, Jensen and Cameron graduate from a Royals farm system that’s now devoid of most of its upper minor league talent. RHP Luinder Avila made his big league debut in 2025 as a reliever, but will likely be stretched out for rotation depth, at minimum to start 2026. The next wave is a few years away from impacting the big league level, but keep your eyes squarely on C Blake Mitchell, RHP Kendry Chourio and SS Josh Hammond.
2026 OUTLOOK
Manager Matt Quatraro signed a three-year contract extension, running through 2029 with a club option for 2030. He’s completely turned the big league team into a viable, division-winning capable team in short order. The Yankees three-time MVP Aaron Judge is realistically the only man standing in the way of Bobby Witt Jr. finally ascending to win one of his own. Is 2026 the year he breaks through? I’m definitely bullish on that potential, especially with the adjusted Kauffman Stadium dimensions this season, bringing left and right field in approximately 9 to 10 feet. Health and depth of the starting rotation will be something to monitor all season, but if the offense gets off to even a league-average start compared to last season, this Royals team will be making noise into October.
BOLD TAKE: The Royals win 90+ games and capture the AL Central Division title
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
