The Marlins bottomed out in 2024 when they went 62-100, as there were a ton of things going on within the organization. It started well before October 2023, but that was the first big domino to fall, as widely-respected executive Kim Ng declined her option to stick around for 2024. The Marlins also opted not to give a contract extension to manager Skip Schumaker, who was coming off of being the NL Manager of the Year in his first season at the helm. With the dark cloud of Schumaker hanging over the team, coupled with all sorts of trade rumors and uncertainty, things were really, really bad.
Schumaker indeed left after the 2024 season and the Marlins wound up with Clayton McCullough, a man well-respected in baseball circles, but not exactly a recognizable hire in a line that featured Schumaker, Don Mattingly, Mike Redmond, and one season of Ozzie Guillen. McCullough had a fine first season, going 79-83 with a 35-32 second half. McCullough sort of embodies the roster as a whole, as Miami is filled with no-name players. People know Sandy Alcantara. They maybe know Eury Perez. The average baseball fan probably couldn’t name a single position player.
The projected starting lineup features eight players acquired via trade, one off waivers, and seven of them were acquired within the last two calendar years. Could this ragtag team of youngsters produce a darkhorse Wild Card contender?
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
Miami has basically produced a lineup of guys who were blocked in other organizations by better players or other top prospects. It is likely that the oldest position player to break camp with the Fish will turn 29 in July. This roster is cheap, which is an important part of the equation for owner Bruce Sherman. It is also a major unknown. loanDepot Park is a pretty good pitcher’s park typically, so it’s only fair that we look at the Marlins on a curved grading scale, where they had a 96 wRC+ with a .309 wOBA. With a bunch of young hitters, they did have the fourth-lowest K% in baseball. They were also seventh in stolen bases.
As these guys adjust to the league and the league adjusts to them, there’s no way of knowing how this will all play out. Here’s what we do know – of the top 10 in plate appearances last season, only two players – Kyle Stowers (149 wRC+) and Jesus Sanchez (104 wRC+) were above average hitters. Sanchez was traded to Houston at the Trade Deadline. Xavier Edwards, who led the team in PA, had a 129 wRC+ in 2024 and just a 95 wRC+ in 2025 with a ton of regression to the mean in his BABIP (.398 to .330). Otto Lopez got very unlucky with a .246 BA and .368 SLG with a xBA of .271 and a xSLG of .426. Stowers had his magnificent season cut short by an oblique injury. But, all of these guys, including Stowers’ Orioles teammate Connor Norby, have wide ranges of outcomes for this season.
PITCHING
Similarly, the pitching staff has a wide range of outcomes, too. Sandy Alcantara is still around, despite all sorts of trade talks last season and some this offseason, as he had a 5.36 ERA over a team-leading 174.2 innings of work, but he had a 61.9% LOB%, among the lowest in the league, so his advanced metrics painted a better picture. Instead of moving Alcantara, Miami traded Edward Cabrera to the Cubs for a highly-touted prospect in Owen Caissie, another hitter with a difficult projection. Cal Quantrill made 24 starts for the Marlins and he’s gone.
There’s some measure of addition by subtraction here with Braxton Garrett back after missing all of last season. He was very solid in 2022 and 2023 before getting hurt in 2024. Max Meyer and Perez are two arms that evaluators have loved for a long time, but health is a skill. The oldest player on the 26-man roster is likely to be closer Pete Fairbanks at 32 years of age. This is a bullpen that was completely stripped apart by trades two seasons ago and a lot of guys got valuable high-leverage experience last season.
PROSPECT WATCH
Whatever the Marlins do to isolate young pitching talent is still working, as we’re likely to see the MLB debuts this season of Thomas White and Robby Snelling. White has enormous strikeout numbers to go with concerning walk numbers, as he’s just overpowered hitters in the minors. The 6-foot-5 southpaw has only allowed eight homers out of 811 batters and has 272 strikeouts (33.5% K%). Meanwhile, Snelling, who was part of the Tanner Scott deal in that aforementioned bullpen sell-off, has given up more homers, but has much better control. I would guess that Alcantara is traded at some point and if Garrett is healthy, the Marlins could move him before he gets deeper into arbitration.
2026 OUTLOOK
I don’t know that the ceiling is very high for the Marlins, but the floor could be pretty low. There are a lot of hitters with limited MLB track records and guys that could absolutely go one way or the other. Many of them have great minor league numbers, especially a guy like Caissie. There are injury risks left and right in the rotation, but a lot of productive pitchers when healthy. Plus, the Marlins are scrappy more often than not. Last year’s team was +7 in actual record vs. Pythagorean Win-Loss because they only had 13 wins by 5+ runs and 29 losses by 5+ runs, putting a huge dent in their run differential. That 35-32 second half record? They were -34 in run differential.
BOLD TAKE: The Marlins have a league average offense for the first time since 2017 when they had a 101 wRC+
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
Signs of life in South Beach? You bet. The emergence of budding stars 2B Xavier Edwards, LF Kyle Stowers and C Agustín Ramirez highlight the foundation this Marlins offense can bank on moving into 2026. Add in a big-time trade, sending Edward Cabrera to the Cubs in exchange for highly touted RF Owen Caissie and the cautious optimism continues growing. It’s still a severely inexperienced lineup, but DH Griffin Conine, SS Otto Lopez and 3B Connor Norby can all take big steps forward this season. Leadoff hitter and CF Jakob Marsee is a real threat to be amongst the league-leaders in stolen bases, so the 1-2 punch of Marsee & Edwards can be table-setters for years to come. The one glaring hole? Power. Only Stowers is projected to hit 20+ bombs and that’s a tough way to do business in the NL East. They’ll need to rely a lot on speed and taking the extra base in spacious Marlins Park, while hoping their very talented rotation can keep them in games. It’s an offense that finished right around league average in runs scored, but they’re not sneaking up on anyone this year.
PITCHING
At one point, the top two rotation arms in Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez were the envy of the league. It looked like Alcantara may fall off the deep end with ineffectiveness to start 2025, but he finished in stride and Miami neglected to trade him at the deadline. Perez, in the words of Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix, “is just scratching the surface of what he can do.” Young phenom Max Meyer is back from injury, as well as Braxton Garrett and Janson Junk made last year’s rotation as a non-roster invitee. Chris Paddack assumes the No. 5 spot after signing in February, so the talent of the rotation is definitely deeper than a year ago. Can their health be consistent enough to give their team a chance to hang around? One way to help the cause – go get a proven closer. Enter former Tampa Bay Ray stopper, Pete Fairbanks. One of the best leverage relievers in the sport, Fairbanks will lead a Miami pen with setup men Calvin Faucher and former closer Anthony Bender. The work in progress will be the bridge to that trio. Find those answers to help shorten games and the Fish may be dangerously close to contention.
PROSPECT WATCH
Owen Caissie would headline the Marlins farmhands, but he’s likely ticketed for a spot on the Opening Day roster. Right behind him is power-hitting C Joe Mack and LHPs Thomas White and Robby Snelling. The real excitement is potentially the Miami face of the future: SS Aiva Arquette. The seventh overall selection out of Oregon State in last year’s draft, he became arguably the best college position player in the country and can rocket through the minor leagues, knocking on the door of The Show probably in 2028. It’s widely regarded as an underrated farm system, but the secret may be out soon enough.
2026 OUTLOOK
Manager Clayton McCullough brought the winning culture from his days in the Dodgers organization and turned it into an exciting product on the field. After finishing the first half seven games under .500, he led them to a 35-32 second half, including a 13-4 surge to finish the regular season. Momentum and confidence are quietly rampant amongst this group and the NL East divisional foes got a first-hand look at this revamped roster. If a handful of young position players take off and the rotation remains healthy for the majority of the season, this team will be around come September.
BOLD TAKE: Miami finishes above .500 and challenges for the Wild Card
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
