The Brewers just keep defying the odds. Per Cot’s Contracts, Milwaukee hasn’t had an Opening Day payroll in the top half of the league since 2012 and last season’s starting 26-man payroll was 24th. All they did was win the NL Central for the third straight season and eclipsed 800 runs scored for the first time since 2007. The only losing season for this team since 2016 was in the 60-game COVID year when they went 29-31. Not only that, but they’ve won at least 86 games in every full-length season.
Unfortunately, the team has been built for 162 and not October baseball. Last season marked the first time since 2018 that the Brewers won a playoff series. With their seven postseason appearances in eight seasons, the Brewers have two NLCS losses, one NLDS loss, and four NL Wild Card losses. It may take more spending or it may take more luck to secure the first NL Pennant in franchise history, as the Brewers were a member of the AL when they went to the 1982 World Series. But, this is a team that always gives themselves a chance.
Players come in and players go out, but they all seem to fit. Running it back this season with pretty much everybody but Freddy Peralta, Isaac Collins, and Caleb Durbin. Milwaukee should be solid again.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
This was a top-10 offense by wOBA last season at .322 and a group that finished third in runs scored. Not only were the Brewers second in batting average and on-base percentage, but they were also second in stolen bases with 164. Using FanGraphs’ all-encompassing BsR baserunning metric, this was the best team in the league on the basepaths. That’s a good way to make up for being 22nd in home runs. Only the Yankees, Dodgers, and Braves drew more walks and it’s not like the Brewers have the power bats to fear that those lineups do. Milwaukee had the lowest Chase Rate in baseball at 25.3% and was fourth in O-Contact% and third in Z-Contact%.
Factoring all of that in, the Brewers had the fifth-lowest K%, so when they got guys on, they did the little things to move them along by taking extra bases or putting balls in play. Only the Red Sox had a higher batting average on balls in play. The more telling thing about the Brewers is that only Andrew Vaughn’s out-of-body experience was an outlier. He had a 142 wRC+ in 254 PA after being acquired from the White Sox. Twelve of the top 14 in plate appearances had a wRC+ between 142 and 109, with Brice Turang as the top everyday player at 123. Between offensive contributions, defense, and baserunning, the Brewers had seven players with at least 2.4 fWAR. Among qualified hitters, the Brewers had six of the league’s top 85 position players by fWAR.
PITCHING
The by-committee approach to offense is also how the Brewers operate on the pitching side. They always find a way to construct a solid bullpen and have a bunch of league average-ish starters or better to rely on. The life cycle of a small-market team was on display this winter with the trade of Peralta to the Mets. It is hard to wrap your head around the No. 1 seed from the previous season trading away their ace from a pitching staff that was second in ERA and sixth in FIP, but Peralta is a free agent after the season and the Brewers got two very good prospects in Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams.
So, Milwaukee has to replace 176.2 innings of a 2.70 ERA and 3.64 FIP from Peralta. They turned Quinn Priester into a legitimate MLB starter last season after he was discarded by both the Red Sox and Pirates. Chad Patrick posted a 3.53 ERA with a 3.53 FIP in 119.2 innings. Brandon Woodruff is back after 12 solid starts last season. And then there are the kids. Jacob Misiorowski had a 4.36 ERA, but a 3.40 xERA and a 3.62 FIP in 66 innings. Logan Henderson debuted with five starts and some nice peripherals. Sproat will get starts. The top six in appearances are all back in the bullpen with ERAs ranging from 1.67 to 3.49. The Brewers have cracked the player development code and are reaping serious benefits.
PROSPECT WATCH
Remember the name Jésus Made. While the Brewers have plenty of notable names closer to the big leagues, Made got a non-roster invite to Major League camp this season. He won’t turn 19 until May, but he finished last season at AA after torching A-ball and High-A pitching. Oh, and he stole 47 bases in 115 games. He’s an unreal talent and he’s coming fast. Remember, Jackson Chourio debuted at 20 and put up a 118 wRC+ in 148 games. The Brewers have no issues fast-tracking their prospects and Made may even get a shot of espresso at the MLB level later this season.
2026 OUTLOOK
The Brewers are in great shape right now. They have Chourio locked down well below market value. Woodruff and Bauers are the only notable expiring contracts. They’ll have six of the Top 100 prospects per FanGraphs entering the season. And the team seems to love Pat Murphy, especially with how Craig Counsell unceremoniously left town for the rival Cubs. There was nothing fluky about last season, playing .583 ball before the Break and .621 ball after it. They started 0-4 and were outscored 47-15, so they were +204 in run differential over the final 158 games. This is going to be a very good team again and the team to beat in the NL Central.
BOLD TAKE:Ask your favorite sportsbook to put up a Logan Henderson NL Cy Young number
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
Perhaps the biggest shock of any team came in the Brewers offensive explosion in 2025. If anyone predicted the 2025 Opening Day roster would set the stage for a top-three scoring offense and top-two in OBP and stolen bases, present us the winning lottery numbers at some point. C William Contreras put together as complete a season by a catcher outside of Cal Raleigh and a resurgent season from DH Christian Yelich provided the foundation for the breakout campaign. Young superstar LF Jackson Chourio continued to position himself as one of the best players in the game and 2B Brice Turang turned heads with his best career season statistically. Trade acquisition 1B Andrew Vaughn absolutely blew away expectations, adding much needed thump to the middle of the order. Speedster RF Sal Frelick lengthens the lineup that will still be pretty well rounded, having CF Garrett Mitchell and SS Joey Ortiz to round it out. A bench composed of 1B/OF Jake Bauers and OF Blake Perkins complements the starters well. Hard to ask for a duplicate offensive performance team-wide in 2026; however, doubt the Brew Crew at your own peril. They’ve defied expectations for the last handful of seasons and may be lurking yet again as a competent attack this year.
PITCHING
To achieve the top regular season record in MLB means you need a rotation stocked full of innings eaters. Milwaukee had it in spades last year, running out a staff that finished top three in rotation ERA. Gone are Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers, who netted quite the return from the Mets. Back is sage veteran Brandon Woodruff, hoping to reprise his role as one of the more dominant starters on the Senior Circuit. He’ll get plenty of help from young fireballers Jacob Misiorowski and Quinn Priester. “The Miz” punctuated a meteoric rise to fame with a controversial All-Star game nod, but the talent oozes from the tall right-hander, who will definitely factor into the NL Cy Young race. Milwaukee won 19 consecutive Priester starts from early June through mid-September and there’s much to love about his improvement for 2026. One of the top organizational pitching prospects, Logan Henderson, is the odds-on favorite to win the No. 5 starting job. The rotation is backed up by an armada of velocity in the bullpen, headlined by the two-headed monster of Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill. Both ranked amongst the top 20 relievers in the sport last season and can shorten games with leverage arms Jared Koenig, Aaron Ashby and Angel Zerpa. It’s one of the rare relief corps that likely employs more lefties than righties, but this unit continues to be one of the most consistent in the National League.
PROSPECT WATCH
Top Brewers farmhand and No. 3 overall prospect in baseball, SS/2B Jesús Made, leads a Milwaukee system complete with five members in the Top 100 in MiLB. Made is a highly advanced, switch-hitting 18-year-old, with room to grow in the power department. INF Luis Peña (No. 26 in Top 100) is also a teenager looking to take a leap in 2026. The Freddy Peralta/Tobias Myers trade netted two wonderful players in INF/OF Jett Williams (No. 51) and RHP Brandon Sproat (No. 100). Sproat made his MLB debut with the Mets last season and Williams isn’t far behind. Both will start at Triple-A, but are excellent call-up options in the near future.
2026 OUTLOOK
Another Manager of the Year Award for Pat Murphy, earning the honor back-to-back years while leading the Brew Crew to consecutive NL Central titles. It feels every offseason, there are more questions than answers. Yet, this team finds itself squarely near or at the top of the division. The loss of Peralta is huge, but there are lots of young rotation arms ready to elevate their game. The bullpen is elite and the offense can use some extra power, but still exhibits depth and versatility. Regression is the biggest question: how much of 2025 can they duplicate in 2026?
BOLD TAKE: Milwaukee finishes under .500, missing the postseason
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
