The White Sox had the lowest win percentage in one-run games, but the Twins were second. That wasn’t the only reason that Rocco Baldelli was fired, but it was certainly a contributing factor. Derek Shelton was fired in May by the Pirates and is now the manager of the Twins, a team he spent two seasons with in 2018-19 as the bench coach, first for Paul Molitor and then for Baldelli. Shelton goes from one of the cheapest owners in baseball in Bob Nutting to whatever the situation is for the Twins.
The Pohlad family was looking to sell in 2024 and early 2025, but then opted to keep the team and just get some minority investors. Not before the Trade Deadline fire sale, though, as the team traded Jhoan Duran, Willi Castro, Carlos Correa, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Ty France, Louis Varland, Harrison Bader, Chris Paddack, and Danny Coulombe. Many felt, if not universally agreed, that the team needed a refresh, but trading most of the bullpen, including an elite, flame-throwing closer, was a bit shocking.
If the team is on a similar trend line this season after going 70-92 last season, we’ll be talking about Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Ryan Jeffers being available at the Trade Deadline, if not more.
Note: this comes from our MLB Betting Guide, which was written prior to the Lopez diagnosis of a torn UCL and Tommy John surgery
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
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In the aggregate, the Twins were a below average offense, but they did get a lot of above average contributions. It’s just that they also had the playing time spread out quite a bit. Fourteen different players had at least 200 plate appearances, some post-fire sale, some due to injury. The team actually wasted one of the healthier and more productive Byron Buxton seasons, as he played 126 games with 542 plate appearances and a 136 wRC+ with a .264/.327/.551 slash and 35 homers to lead the team. The only others with over 500 PA were Trevor Larnach, who was a tad above league average, and Brooks Lee, who was terrible at the plate.
One of the players who produced at a high rate was Luke Keaschall. Don’t be surprised if regression hits the 2023 second-round pick, as he had a .363 wOBA with a .324 xwOBA and a .340 BABIP, but the Twins should be excited about him as one of their few building blocks. Royce Lewis failed to stay healthy again and also took a nosedive with the stick. This lineup, including free agent signings Josh Bell and Vic Caratini, will probably look very different by August again.
PITCHING
The rotation might, too, but it’s an okay group for now. The Twins were 23rd in starter ERA last season, but top 10 in walks and strikeouts, so there was a good bit of bad luck, though that’ll happen with a poor defensive team. Of the seven guys with at least 10 starts, Ryan and Lopez were the only two to post an ERA below their xERA and Ryan did so by one point. Also, not one of the top eight in games started posted a GB% above 38.5%. This was a rotation that gave up a lot of long balls. That’ll need to change because, much like we saw last season, this offense isn’t good enough to outhit that.
Lopez only made 14 starts and the other highest-upside starter, Zebby Matthews, only made 16. Minnesota may explore a six-man rotation at the outset and I think that makes sense to protect the young arms, including Taj Bradley from the Rays, and to keep Lopez and Ryan fresh for trade purposes. I don’t think there’s enough differentiation in this rotation, though. Bradley provides some with a 56 degree arm angle, but this is an all right-handed rotation with arm angles of 25, 32, 35, 40, 46, and 56 degrees and a lot of fastball usage. I’m honestly surprised that both pitching coach Pete Maki and bullpen coach LaTroy Hawkins were retained by Shelton.
PROSPECT WATCH
At least when Buxton and/or Lewis get hurt, the Twins might get some help from below. I’m not sure it will be top prospect Walker Jenkins, who was drafted fifth overall in 2023 out of high school, but it could be amateur free agent signing Emmanuel Rodriguez. The Dominican-born 22-year-old struck out or walked in over 52% of his plate appearances last season. He’s struck out 389 times (30.3%) and walked 278 times (21.7%) over 1,283 PA in the minors. He did swing and miss over 12% of the time, but rarely chased. When he does make contact, he hits the ball hard, as his small sample size in AAA yielded a 46.9% Hard Hit%. He’s a fascinating player.
2026 OUTLOOK
The Twins are probably ticketed for fourth place in the AL Central again. I think it’s a lot more likely that the White Sox close the gap than it is that they close the gap with the other three teams in the division. There are financial reasons to trade Lopez and Ryan, but there are baseball reasons as well. Namely, the Twins aren’t winning anything this year or next year with them and 1.5 years of control is way more attractive to a buyer, even with the uncertainty of the 2027 labor agreement.
BOLD TAKE: The Twins do finish behind the White Sox and finish last for the first time since 2021 and second time since 2016
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
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Unpredictability. One word to sum up the 2026 Minnesota Twins offensive outlook. Seven of the nine projected position player regulars are all homegrown Twins, led by franchise stalwart CF Byron Buxton and former No. 1 overall pick 3B Royce Lewis. Returning veterans RF Matt Wallner, C Ryan Jeffers and DH Trevor Larnach fill out an order that gets a boost from offseason acquisition 1B Josh Bell. Power wasn’t the problem for the 2025 Twins – they ranked 11th in all of baseball in home runs. Consistency in reaching base and hitting with runners in scoring position short-circuited their attack. They get into lots of strikeout streaks, so limiting the swing and miss up and down the lineup is a huge priority.
PITCHING
The top end of the Twins rotation rightly deserves the hype and praise it received as the team’s best asset. Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober return to lead the starting five. If Lopez and Ryan stay healthy, pencil them in for 30+ starts and 170+ strikeouts each. Simeon Woods Richardson and Zebby Matthews likely fill out spots 4 and 5, with Taj Bradley as next man up in AAA. Your guess is as good as mine for who gets the lion’s share of closing opportunities to start 2026. Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk and Cole Sands will be in contention in camp, but closer-by-committee is the likely avenue to begin the season.
PROSPECT WATCH
No. 1 Twins prospect (No. 14 overall in MLB) OF Walker Jenkins will be in big league camp and is poised to turn heads. He’s got all the tools, both offensively and defensively, to be a major leaguer this season. If he adds consistent power early in the year, don’t be shocked if he’s in Target Field at some point in 2026. No. 2 prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez nursed a late season oblique injury, but hopefully a winter ball stint has him ready to rock. The excitement about 2024 1st round SS Kaelen Culpepper is also worth noting. Versatile with power and speed, he can also be a call-up candidate if he continues momentum from a fabulous finish to 2025. On the bump, LHP Connor Prielipp is primed for potential big league innings as either a starter or reliever, if his workload progresses.
2026 OUTLOOK
Derek Shelton takes over as skipper, beginning another tour-of-duty in the Twin Cities, after previously being Roco Baldelli’s bench coach. Shelton’s managing tenure ended in Pittsburgh after a 306-440 record, but he replaces Baldelli and is excited for his second chance. The lack of impactful offseason additions can largely be attributed to the uncertainty hanging over the organization after a potential sale of the team (which did not come to pass), as well as a drastically reduced intake of rights fees from the regional sports network situation. Of the players that will take the field in 2026, health always seems to be top of mind with injury histories surrounding Buxton, Lewis and Lopez. The young infielders must take big steps forward for the offense to contend, too. A boatload of turnover in the bullpen, coupled with a bottom-third defense, will be tough to overcome. The silver lining? They play in the AL Central, where as we saw just a year ago – ANYTHING can happen.
BOLD TAKE: Byron Buxton plays 140+ games, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez both debut before the All-Star Break, helping lead the Twins to a playoff berth
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
