For all of the resources, all of the great pitchers and position players, and the all-in nature of what owner Steven Cohen is pursuing, the Mets haven’t won the NL East title since 2015. They’ve made the playoffs twice since 2016 and simply have not found any consistency. They haven’t finished in the same spot in the division since finishing fourth in back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019. They’ve been all over the place and last season was another example, using a total of 63 players and 46 pitchers to finish 83-79.
Cohen bought the team in November 2020. Since then, he’s bought Juan Soto for $765 million, Bo Bichette for $126 million, Francisco Lindor for $341 million, Sean Manaea for $103 million in total thus far, Kodai Senga for $75 million plus the posting fee, and he added more salary this winter by trading for Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr., Freddy Peralta, plus three new free agent relievers and Jorge Polanco. To show for all that spending, the Mets have eight playoff wins in five postseasons.
To say that the pressure is on this team and this organization is an understatement. From a betting standpoint, they’re a hard handicap because there are so many good players to respect, but even with all those good players, the Mets have hit 90 wins once since 2015.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
Soto had 715 plate appearances in his first season with the Mets, as he continued to be one of the league’s most durable and productive players. It was Soto’s first season with an OBP under .400 at .396, which was still third in baseball. His 5.8 fWAR ranked 11th, as his defensive metrics were really poor (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -12 Outs Above Average). He’s not a great outfielder to begin with, but last season was worse, so the Mets are moving him to LF. While he saw decreases in some areas, he also hit a career-high 43 homers and stole 38 bases. His previous high in SB was 12.
That’s basically a long-winded way to say that Soto came as advertised and the Mets still lost six more games than the previous season without him. Overall, the offense was sixth in wOBA and fifth in wRC+. They were also third in wOBA with RISP and third in wRC+. The top eight hitters were all 11% above league average or better. Of course, four of them are gone now in Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and Brandon Nimmo, replaced by Bichette, Polanco, Semien, and Robert. The offense, which was second in Hard Hit% and third in Barrel%, should be fine again.
PITCHING
A projectable offense did what it was expected to do for the most part and should do it again this season. What sticks out to me about last season is that I think the Mets actually got pretty lucky on the pitching side in some areas. Clay Holmes hadn’t been a starting pitcher at the MLB level since 2018 and made four starts in 11 appearances. Somehow he stayed healthy and productive through a team-high 31 starts with a 3.53 ERA and a 4.11 FIP. The Mets got meaningful innings out of Griffin Canning with a 3.77 ERA and 4.04 FIP. Same with Tylor Megill, who was limited to 68.1 innings, but had a 3.95 ERA with a 3.43 FIP. Those were strokes of good fortune, at least until injuries derailed everything.
Sure, it was definitely unfortunate that Kodai Senga was limited to 22 starts, but he was very good when he was out there. It’s unfortunate that David Peterson had a 4.22 ERA with a 3.48 FIP. Frankie Montas was a huge bust, but Nolan McLean looked great and Jonah Tong got his feet wet. A revolving door of relievers didn’t help, especially with Ryne Stanek’s 5.30 ERA and 4.40 FIP while leading the team with 65 appearances. Edwin Diaz was great. The rest of the relievers were mid to bad overall, hence the signings of Luke Weaver, Devin Williams, and Luis Garcia. With another rotation workhorse in Peralta, this staff looks better overall.
PROSPECT WATCH
Tong and McLean grab a lot of the attention on this team, but there is a potential player who might get a chance with Marte and Jeff McNeil gone. Carson Benge was taken 19th overall out of Oklahoma State and has a pretty good opportunity with the MLB losses, plus the trade of Jett Williams in the Peralta deal. He’s already 23 and walked more than he struck out in college with a .339/.455/.609 slash. For what it’s worth, he also threw 72 innings in college and had a 3.16 ERA in 2024 over four starts and 14 relief appearances. Benge swiped 22 bags and hit 15 homers across four minor league levels last season and posted a 52.8% Hard Hit% in 72 batted ball events in AAA, so his .178 BA probably wasn’t a good indicator of how well he hit the ball.
2026 OUTLOOK
The story remains the same for the Mets. They are an example of a great collection of players that can be assembled when money is not a hindrance. The pitching staff certainly seems upgraded and the offense could be better, though I think it’ll stay about the same or maybe be slightly worse. That projects out to a really good record, but we all thought that last season too. And we thought that during the season, as the Mets started 45-24 and played .409 baseball the rest of the way to finish 83-79. That’s a 66-win pace over 162 games to finish the season. So nothing is guaranteed.
BOLD TAKE: Devin Williams leads MLB in saves
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
These 2026 Mets might just be better than their 2025 version, who finished top six in HR, OPS and stolen bases. The anchor in Pete Alonso has been replaced by a trio of bats, highlighted by 3B Bo Bichette, 1B Jorge Polanco and 2B Marcus Semien. That completes a near overhaul of the infield, punctuated by Bichette and Polanco both learning new positions and getting a multitude of run-scoring opportunities with SS Francisco Lindor and LF Juan Soto in front of them. Trading for CF Luis Robert Jr. is a gamble that he will return to former stardom, but worth the risk. Bounce-back campaigns out of DH Brett Baty and C Francisco Alvarez will aid an offense that really packs a punch top to bottom. Young RF Carson Benge will likely get first crack at the starting spot in left field, but his primary objectives are just getting on base consistently, turning the lineup over to the behemoths at the top of the order. The pressure is on for Bichette and Polanco to make up for the production from the departed Polar Bear and Semien can also keep the line moving. Will a trade involving INF Mark Vientos be in the offing? Depth is always a key through the marathon of a season and he’d be a hot commodity for clubs looking to infuse offense in their respective lineups. This collective group should find themselves comfortably in the Top 10 offenses of 2026.
PITCHING
The search for a staff ace is over after president of baseball operations David Stearns brought in his old pal from their Milwaukee days, acquiring Freddy Peralta. He’s the much needed answer to a rotation overdue for a horse to ride from Day 1. The emergence of top organizational prospect Nolan McLean in 2025 gives the Mets a lethal one-two punch alongside Peralta and veterans David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Sean Manaea fill in behind. Can Kodai Senga, who actually stayed healthy for most of last season, do it all over again? The potential six-man rotation may not need a lot of length early with a fully restocked bullpen, even after Edwin Díaz signed with the Dodgers. Closer Devin Williams figured out a lot at the end of 2025 after a disastrous start to his Yankee tenure and was joined by fellow former Bronx teammate Luke Weaver to form the back-end bullpen tandem finishing out games. Brooks Raley, Luis Garcia, Huascar Brazobán and Tobias Myers (also acquired in the Peralta deal) lengthen a very formidable relief corps that will be quite versatile if they stay healthy.
PROSPECT WATCH
The Freddy Peralta trade did come with a significant prospect cost, seeing RHP Brandon Sproat and SS Jett Williams heading to the Brewers. Add in 2B Luisangel Acuña from the Robert trade with the White Sox and the Mets farm system certainly is leaner heading into 2026. The graduations of McLean and SP Jonah Tong represented a clear indication the future is bright on the mound in Flushing, as well as the potential for Benge to win the LF starting job. INF/OF A.J. Ewing is another Top 100 MiLB prospect who’s got a shot at reaching Triple A by year’s end.
2026 OUTLOOK
Manager Carlos Mendoza gets another chance to prove he’s the man for the job. There’s going to be real scrutiny on Bichette and Polanco both playing new defensive positions for the first time in their careers and the pressure to produce with Semien in the middle of the lineup. If Lindor and Soto get anywhere close to what they did last season, the rotation arms behind Peralta stay relatively healthy and there’s no clunkers out of Williams, this team may finally live up to expectations.
BOLD TAKE: Francisco Alvarez hits 30+ HR & Freddy Peralta finishes Top 3 in NL Cy Young voting
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
