The quest for No. 28 continues, as the Yankees have made the playoffs in 11 of the last 15 seasons, but don’t have a World Series trophy to show for it. In fact, the Bronx residents have made the playoffs in all but five seasons in years starting with a 20 and have two World Series victories (2000, 2009) to show for it. Failing to really build on the momentum of the Fall Classic loss to the Dodgers two seasons ago didn’t sit well with the fans and the Yanks bowed out in the ALDS.
Truth be told, I’m not sure things could have gone better for the Yankees last season. Aaron Judge won another AL MVP and played 152 games. Cody Bellinger (4.9) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (4.4) led a group of five players with at least 3.0 fWAR. Max Fried and Carlos Rodon each threw 195.1 very valuable innings and Will Warren made 33 starts to offset the in-season loss of Clarke Schmidt and the preseason loss of Gerrit Cole. Outside of the bullpen being an adventure, Cam Schlittler debuted and was excellent, Trent Grisham had a breakout season, Ben Rice would have gotten Rookie of the Year votes if eligible, and Aaron Boone was only ejected seven times.
With Ryan Weathers as the only newcomer, and an eye on Cole and Rodon’s returns in May or June, do the Yankees have enough to emerge victorious in a clearly improved division?
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
So, there’s a glass half-full and glass half-empty approach to the Yankees offense. The half-full part is that Judge remains an elite hitter who was two times better than league average with an MLB-best 204 wRC+. Rice, Grisham, Chisholm, and Bellinger, who are all locked in for this season, combined for 120 home runs. Giancarlo Stanton only played 77 games, but hit 24 dingers with a 158 wRC+. Last season’s power production remains intact and those guys collectively draw walks at a well above average rate.
I’m not going to pretend like Judge is going to experience a huge drop in numbers, but he’ll turn 34 in April and his SwStr% was his highest since 2019 and his Z-Contact% has been down the last three years relative to the two years prior. Teams that have lofty expectations like the Yankees have to be viewed in the aggregate. Any decline from Judge paired with declines from Grisham, whose 21.5% HR/FB% was easily a career-high, Chisholm, who set a career-best mark in BB% and saw a huge spike in fly balls, Rice, who swung and missed less at the MLB level than he had in the minors, or Bellinger, who had a SLG of .480 with an expected SLG of .317, negatively impacts the team in a good division with a high win total and short futures odds.
PITCHING
The Yankees do find themselves in an advantageous situation here. Schlittler’s emergence as a burgeoning star and Fried’s strong, healthy season give New York a lot to build around. Also, like we’ve seen with the Dodgers, there is probably a pretty big push among organizations with a lot of money or a lot of arms to not overextend guys. Fried is a workhorse, but Schlittler worked over 160 innings and he’s an arm worth protecting. That’s why the May return of Rodon and the probable June return of Cole are so important.
With competent starters like Warren and Luis Gil, plus an arm I’ve loved forever in Weathers, the Yankees should run deep here by the summer. Weathers added three ticks to his fastball over the last few seasons, but has never thrown more than 86.2 MLB innings in a campaign, so the jury is way out on him. Nevertheless, between the rotation and a bullpen in line for positive regression, this is a good group. Bullpens are super volatile year-over-year. The 2024 Yankees pen posted a 3.62 ERA with a 3.91 xERA and a 3.96 FIP. The 2025 Yankees pen had a 4.37 ERA with a 3.77 xERA and a 4.11 FIP. The biggest difference? The 2025 version had a 69.8% LOB% that ranked 26th. The 2024 version had a 72.6% LOB% that ranked 12th.
PROSPECT WATCH
We’re finally at the point where Jasson Dominguez can’t really be considered a prospect, so we go to the next outfielder in the pipeline with Spencer Jones. Jones is often dangled by Bronx Bombers fans in hypothetical trade proposals as a guy with prolific power and a ton of holes in his swing. He bashed 35 HR in 506 PA across AA and AAA last season, but also struck out over 35% of the time with a 19.2% SwStr%. I think strikeouts are overblown, especially if you can offset them with power and free passes, and Jones did post an 11.5% BB%. A boom-or-bust left-handed bat on a per-PA basis with this home ballpark intrigues me greatly.
2026 OUTLOOK
Returning from Tommy John surgery is not linear, so there’s no guarantee that Cole comes back looking like himself, nor is there with Rodon and his bone spur surgery. But, the Yankees have positioned themselves well to go seven-ish deep by late spring and shouldn’t have to overextend guys. Similarly, there are a lot of above average bats to go with an elite one in the lineup. The relief corps will rely on situational regression with no major adds. This is basically the same team, but a year older. To me, this group stayed pretty much the same, while the other four in the division got better.
BOLD TAKE: Multi-player regression hits and the Yankees are fighting for the final AL Wild Card spot several games back in the division
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
Hard to argue with the offensive output from this 2025 Yankees lineup. The league leader in runs scored, OPS and HR basically runs it back in 2026 with most of the regulars that finished in pinstripes last season. RF Aaron Judge won his third AL MVP award in the last four years and has his battering mates LF Cody Bellinger and DH Giancarlo Stanton back for lineup protection. Fresh off of a career year, CF Trent Grisham accepted the Yankees qualifying offer, returning to hit leadoff, while 1B Ben Rice and re-signed 1B Paul Goldschmidt share duties anchoring the infield of 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., SS José Caballero and 3B Ryan McMahon. C Austin Wells rounds out the lineup. Bench options abound with INF/OF Oswaldo Cabrera and Amed Rosario, along with “the Martian” OF Jasson Domínguez. On paper, can the Bronx Bombers recreate 849 runs scored and 274 team HR? Projections indicate yes, with the favorable short porches in Yankee Stadium. This lineup surprisingly finished top eight in stolen bases and with Caballero getting the Opening Day spot for the injured SS Anthony Volpe, he’s got a shot at 50+ in that category. Speaking of 50 or more, what’s to stop Judge from eclipsing the 50+ HR plateau and three-peating in the MVP race? There still seems to be no answer (outside of the playoffs) to solve getting him out in clutch situations. Expect the usual thunder and lightning from the Yankee starting nine again in 2026.
PITCHING
Hold the line. That’s the refrain for the early portion of the 2026 schedule in the Yankee rotation. Max Fried is slated for the top starting spot out of the chute, alongside rookie sensations Cam Schlittler and Will Warren. A sneaky good deal with the Marlins brings in a high-upside starter in Ryan Weathers, with Luis Gil rounding out the first five. The rehab timelines for staff ace Gerrit Cole and stalwart Carlos Rodón are something to monitor, with Cole potentially joining the big league staff in early June. Neither will be rushed, considering the depth of the current starting options; nevertheless, when both return to full health, New York will have a viable argument for the deepest rotation in the AL. Bullpen issues plagued this team a year ago, but with offseason defections by Williams and Weaver to the crosstown rival Mets, some roles become pretty clear heading into 2026. Closer David Bednar flourished down the stretch and will be the stopper. Setup men Camilo Doval, Fernando Cruz and Tim Hill all provide excellent leverage options. The real question in camp will be how to fill out the remaining reliever options, deciding between veterans Paul Blackburn, Ryan Yarbrough and Rule 5 selection Cade Winquest. New York can’t afford this unit being the early Achilles’ heel it became in 2025.
PROSPECT WATCH
Four Yankees farmhands find their spots in MiLB’s Top 100 list entering 2026, highlighted by INF George Lombard Jr. (No.32), RHP Carlos Lagrange (No.79) and RHP Elmer Rodríguez (No.82). Lombard possesses excellent base-stealing abilities and scouts believe he’ll develop into a five-tool player. Rodríguez is ticketed for the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre rotation as a potential early call-up candidate. Notably absent from the Top 100 list is ballyhooed power prospect OF Spencer Jones. His struggles with swing-and-miss continue to keep him from the Bronx, but his power is absolutely undeniable.
2026 OUTLOOK
The goal never changes: World Series or bust. Manager Aaron Boone will rely on the early offensive firepower to win games before Cole and Rodón can return to the rotation. The bullpen needs a quick start as well. With the AL East getting even better this offseason, the Yankees will be plenty battle-tested. Will those battles result in too much injury attrition or can they overwhelm their division rivals, en route to a deep October run?
BOLD TAKE: The Yankee rotation reinforcements prove vital as they find their way back to the ALCS
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
