The Phillies wrapped up another strong regular season with another premature playoff exit. The 96 wins racked up by Philadelphia were the most since 2011 when the team went 102-60. Just like that 2011 team, the 2025 team lost in the NLDS. Last year’s 3-1 series loss to the Dodgers was the second straight 3-1 NLDS exit, but maybe this one didn’t sting quite as much as losing to the rival Mets did. Nevertheless, the Phillies are not a team constructed to go to the playoffs only to bow out after four or five games.
Some would say that Joe Girardi’s firing was the catalyst for a playoff berth in 2022, which the Phillies rode all the way to the World Series. Under Thomson, Philadelphia is 346-251 in the regular season, but just 21-17 in the postseason. I don’t want to be hyperbolic, but the window is starting to close on this team and they’re going to need to find a way to break through sooner rather than later.
Based on Baseball-Reference’s Average Age calculations, which are derived from playing time and player age, the Phillies had a Batting Age of 30.3 last season and a Pitching Age of 30.0. The last time they were 30+ in both? The 2014 season when they went 73-89, three years removed from five straight playoff appearances. That time is coming again.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
It is entirely possible that the aging curve slows down, as players are far more cognizant of their health and well-being these days than they were in the past. But, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about a team that just signed a 32-year-old DH to a massive extension with four other 32+ position players in the lineup. I’ll get to Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in a minute, but it is worth pointing out that Bryce Harper had his lowest wRC+ (131) since 2019. Trea Turner (125 wRC+) and Kyle Schwarber (152) improved upon the previous season’s numbers, but both were above their career averages and projection systems are calling for regression.
That’s not to say that all three will drop off dramatically, but as they go from 125 to 115 or 152 to 125, somebody else has slack to pick up. While Turner was technically a better hitter, he had his lowest SLG since 2018 and lowest HR total since 2017. Harper had his lowest OBP since 2014 when he was a young pup at 21. Brandon Marsh ran a .363 BABIP to carry his .280 batting average and .342 OBP, two numbers I’d expect to drop. Alec Bohm didn’t take a leap. And now the Phillies are hoping Adolis Garcia, who will turn 33 about a month before the season starts, has something left in the tank.
PITCHING
With Ranger Suarez gone, the Phillies have a thinner margin for error on the health front. Wheeler has over 1,700 innings on his arm as he looks to come back from thoracic outlet surgery, a procedure that doesn’t have nearly the track record or blueprint for return that Tommy John does. Nola was brutal last season and also missed half the year with injury, as he posted a 6.01 ERA. The advanced metrics were more favorable, but he allowed career-highs in Hard Hit% and Barrel%, plus he had the lowest fastball velo of his career. I won’t call it a miracle that Jesus Luzardo made 32 starts and covered 183.2 innings, but you have to assume the Phillies were ecstatic that he did.
Cristopher Sanchez has morphed into a true ace and I hope the 6-foot-6 southpaw can stay healthy. He’s super fun to watch and his 57.5% career GB% paired with over a K per inning last season for the first time is the recipe for a frontline starter. In a world without Paul Skenes, he’d have been an overwhelming NL Cy Young Award winner. The Phillies did shed some dead weight in the bullpen and get a full year of Jhoan Duran, but they are really going to miss Matt Strahm, especially if Jose Alvarado, who was suspended for 80 games due to steroids and then shut down in September with a forearm injury, isn’t right.
PROSPECT WATCH
After missing all of 2023 and 2024, Andrew Painter threw 118 innings in the minors last season. The 13th overall pick in 2021 has a ferocious arm, but he posted a 5.40 ERA with a 4.90 FIP in the better of the two leagues for pitchers in AAA. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs noted that Painter’s arm slot lowered over the course of the season and his fastball became very hittable. Before trying to go the rehab route for UCL damage and then subsequent surgery, Painter allowed five homers in 103.2 minor league innings. He allowed 20 in 118 last season, albeit against better hitters. Still, with those age and health questions for the Phillies rotation that I mentioned, Painter’s a key piece as it pertains to keeping the contention window open.
2026 OUTLOOK
To clarify, getting older doesn’t mean that a player falls off a cliff. Some do, but most of the elites and great players don’t. But, they do get less productive. They do have more soft tissue injuries and other ailments that limit playing time. I’m not saying that the Phillies need to stock the clubhouse with canes and walkers, but I am saying that the lofty goals and expectations for this team will be incrementally harder and harder to reach. Last year’s Phillies benefitted from a 31-21 record in the division and were able to put a lot of distance in their division lead over the final two months of the season as the Mets were in freefall and the Braves were resigned to their fate. This year is likely to go differently.
BOLD TAKE: The Phillies barely sneak into the playoffs as the third NL Wild Card team
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
For all the talk of 2025 being the Phillies version of “the Last Dance”, this offseason played out much more positively to run things back in 2026. DH Kyle Schwarber finished runner-up in NL MVP voting and signed a five-year, $150M extension to return atop a lineup featuring perennial All-Stars SS Trea Turner and 1B Bryce Harper. Cleanup hitter 3B Alec Bohm will look to overcome a paltry production year in the RBI department, alongside December acquisition RF Adolis García, LF Brandon Marsh and 2B Bryson Stott. Familiar face C J.T. Realmuto also decided to come back on a three-year, $45M deal and non-roster invitee CF Justin Crawford rounds out the starting nine. INF Edmundo Sosa and INF/OF Otto Kemp represent the prime platoon pieces off the bench. The regular season offense is no problem. The postseason offense, however? That disappearing act can’t happen again in 2026 if Philadelphia plans on advancing deep into October.
PITCHING
At one point in 2025, this rotation presented the toughest challenge in any series. Ace Zack Wheeler suffered a thoracic outlet injury late in the second half last year. However, reports indicate he may return some time after Opening Day to late May. Cristopher Sánchez broke out in a massive way last year and he’ll be “the man” until Wheeler returns. Fellow southpaw Jesús Luzardo, who also provided his best career single-season performance in 2025, is back with veterans Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker filling the three and four slots. Highly anticipated top pitching prospect Andrew Painter is slated to get every shot at winning the No. 5 spot. The bullpen, which presented itself as a gaping hole in last year’s staff, might be one of the best leverage units in the game entering 2026. Led by closer Jhoan Duran and primary setup men José Alvarado, Orion Kerkering and newly-signed Brad Keller, those four horsemen can sling it with anyone in the sport. Tanner Banks, RHP Jonathan Bowlan and a couple other candidates fill out the remaining relief corps. The Phils will miss Ranger Suárez and his durability, departing for the Red Sox on a free agent deal. Nevertheless, while the early rotation version will look a bit different, a fortified bullpen can overcome that early weakness with a fast start.
PROSPECT WATCH
Both sides of the ball get top billing within the Phillies minor league system, headlined by three Top 100 MiLB prospects in SS Aidan Miller (No. 23), RHP Andrew Painter (No. 28) and OF Justin Crawford (No .53). Painter and Crawford look like legit candidates to make the big league Opening Day roster and Miller may not be far behind. 2B Aroon Escobar puts himself on the map, rocketing through three minor league levels last year. Excitement abounds around 2025 No.26 overall pick, RHP Gage Wood, who pitched a 19-strikeout no-hitter in last year’s College World Series for the University of Arkansas. Many scouts believe his premium power fastball and curveball can play in either the rotation or in a prime leverage relief role.
2026 OUTLOOK
Manager Rob Thomson returns after much speculation that his time in the Philly dugout ran its course at the end of 2025. As respected as they come in the game, he’ll run a well-oiled machine back out for a chance to three-peat as NL East division champs. Health challenges, an aging core and improved Braves, Mets and Marlins clubs provide incredibly tough hurdles to overcome. The bullpen depth is a real asset to start the season and they’ll be leaned on heavily from the get-go. Can the offense finally stay awake when the fall leaves start to drop in the postseason? They’re potent in many respects, but there isn’t much sand in the hourglass left for a title run.
BOLD TAKE: Philadelphia secures another postseason berth, but falls in the Wild Card round
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
