The CBA negotiations are going to be rather interesting over the next several months and a team like the Pirates will be at the center of those talks. While everybody is jumping all over the Dodgers and their fat stacks of deferred dollars to some superstar players, the Pirates have Paul Skenes and don’t seem terribly interested in improving the offense. Pittsburgh was seventh in ERA and third in FIP as a pitching staff last season. The team finished 20 games under .500. Every other team in the top 15 in FIP finished .500 or better, including nine of the 12 playoff teams.
So the Pirates were good at preventing runs, but they just couldn’t score them. Pittsburgh allowed the fifth-fewest runs (645) and still finished -62 in run differential. With 583 runs, it was their lowest output in a season with at least 160 games since 1985. That team went 57-104. The concept of a salary floor is going to be a hot-button issue while the MLBPA, the league, and the owners fight about a salary cap. Maybe if Bob Nutting was forced to spend money, the Pirates wouldn’t be wasting all of this pitching. Pittsburgh hasn’t been outside the bottom five in Opening Day payroll since 2017.
As a random aside, former Pirate Tommy Pham replied to a tweet on Feb. 3 about how the Pirates collectively faced the best set of defenses by Fielding Run Value by noting that the humidor was also broken all season in Pittsburgh. Make of that what you will as you read on.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
I use the term hitting very loosely for this heading. The Pirates were dead last in the league with a .290 wOBA and had the lowest SLG at .350. Their 82 wRC+ was only better than the hopeless Rockies, who are graded on a steep curve thanks to Coors Field. Pittsburgh hit 31 fewer homers (117) than any other team and only two batters finished with a wRC+ above 100, which is the league average number. One was Spencer Horwitz (119) and the other was Joey Bart (101). The team’s top five in plate appearances ranged from 75 to 99. Oneil Cruz posted a 56 wRC+ in the second half over 50 games. Woof.
Credit to the Buccos for spending a little bit of money this offseason, as they signed Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna, and traded for Brandon Lowe. Those are now the third, fourth, and fifth-highest salaries on the team behind Mitch Keller and Bryan Reynolds. Oh, and the O’Hearn deal, which was two years at $29.5 million, was the largest free agent deal in Pirates history. All things equal, he would have easily been the best hitter on the roster last season and Lowe would’ve been third behind Horwitz. Lowe also had a 17.1% SwStr%, another spike in Chase Rate, and was traded by the Rays, who rarely seem to lose trades.
PITCHING
It is a bummer to think about what comes next for the Pirates and Paul David Skenes. Skenes will be arbitration-eligible after the 2027 season for the first time and he has absolutely zero incentive to sign long-term in the Steel City. You want to stay in the moment and appreciate a guy who has a Rookie of the Year and a Cy Young in two seasons as a big leaguer, but it is really hard. But, as long as Skenes stays healthy, he’ll be elite again and likely be in the conversation for the best pitcher award when all is said and done.
While there were a lot of useful arms on this staff, Skenes had 6.5 fWAR, Keller had 2.5, and then nobody else had more than 1.6. Certainly the hope is that another electric arm in Bubba Chandler can make the leap after 31.1 innings worth of coffee at the MLB level last season with some excellent peripherals and a lot of bad sequencing luck with a 61.6% LOB% that led to a 4.02 ERA with a 3.60 xERA and a 2.66 FIP. Hopefully Jared Jones can stay on track with his rehab and pitch meaningful innings as the summer turns to fall. The top high-leverage relief arms are back, including closer Dennis Santana, but the other FA signing of note was Gregory Soto, who will be the left-handed complement to Isaac Mattson.
PROSPECT WATCH
More often than not, the MLB Draft isn’t very cut and dry. Picking high is hardly a guarantee like it can be in other sports. But, the Pirates got it right with Skenes and it sure looks like they got it right with Konnor Griffin. On a team like this, Griffin isn’t blocked, so it makes sense that he finished last season at AA and got an invite to MLB Spring Training. Griffin slashed .333/.415/.527 across three levels in his first season of pro ball after being taken ninth overall in 2024. Some consider him the best prospect in baseball. He’ll turn 20 in April and maybe turn into a big leaguer not long after that.
2026 OUTLOOK
Given my propensity for looking at numbers and metrics, I’m not really a “vibes guy”. But, it is hard to ignore how much better the vibes seemed to be for the Pirates when Derek Shelton was canned. Pittsburgh was 12-26 when he was sent packing and they went 59-65 under Don Kelly, who had the interim tag stripped in the fall. This was actually a .500 ballclub (32-33) in the second half last season. They played 60 one-run games last season and went 25-35. They still need to find some offense, but Kelly seems like a good fit for this ballclub. Also, they need to win on the road, where they were just 27-54 compared to 44-37 at home.
BOLD TAKE: Ryan O’Hearn has his first wRC+ under 100 since 2022 as a part-time player for the Royals
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
The league’s worst scoring offense finally got some shots in the arm this offseason. Two left-handed power bats in 2B Brandon Lowe and DH/1B Ryan O’Hearn immediately slot into the meat of the Pirates order. A mid-February signing of thumper OF Marcell Ozuna bolsters the power department for a team that finished dead last in long balls last year. LF Jake Mangum can lengthen at the bottom of the lineup, also adding much-needed OBP that this offense will take wherever they can get it. 1B Spencer Horwitz can hit leadoff, setting the table for Lowe, RF Bryan Reynolds, O’Hearn and SS Oneil Cruz. What’s that get you? On paper, it feels like a lot of feast or famine: high likelihood of fans in the right field stands needing to be on alert and high likelihood of strikeouts. You’d believe this team, who ranked dead last in OPS and 28th in average, can’t do that all over again with the players they’ve brought in.
PITCHING
Believe it when you read it: the Pirates can have one of the top rotations in baseball. RHP Paul Skenes, fresh off an NL Cy Young, is actually looking to improve on the first two years of a career that’s already one for the record books. Behind him are a reliable veteran in Mitch Keller, as well as young phenoms Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler, who made his MLB debut in 2025. February signee José Urquidy rounds out the rotation and hopes to remain healthy for a full season in quite some time. Imagine this starting five if Jared Jones didn’t sustain his elbow injury in May of 2025 too. Closer Dennis Santana anchors a stout back end of the bullpen, with setup men Isaac Mattson and Justin Lawrence, augmented further by Gregory Soto signing from the Mets. Mason Montgomery also can factor into late-game situations, coming over in a trade with the Rays. The relief corps limits walks, keeps the ball in the ballpark and if they get a bump in their K/9 percentage, watch out.
PROSPECT WATCH
Pittsburgh graduated their pitching gems to the bigs in the last two years. Clear the deck for the No.1 prospect in baseball, SS/OF Konnor Griffin. Elite tools, dazzling skills and perhaps an early 2026 debut? At 6’4”, 225 lbs, just 19 years old, he’s the cornerstone of the future in their lineup. OF Jhostynxon Garcia is likely a member of the Opening Day roster and LHP Hunter Barco also made his MLB debut last year. Keep your eyes on Edward Florentino as the breakout candidate in the minors.
2026 OUTLOOK
Don Kelly took over on May 8 for Derek Shelton, leading the Buccos to a respectable 59-65 mark from that point. It earned him the permanent gig and a contract extension in September, indicating the faith and confidence in his leadership. For far too long, owner Bob Nutting has received criticism (and rightfully so) for being cheap and not going for high-end free agents or impact trades. They attempted an offer to Kyle Schwarber, which many in the industry believed to be “just for show.” They actually did get some decent upgrades, signing O’Hearn and Ozuna, as well as on the trade front, acquiring Lowe and Mangum. Pirates fans are hoping urgency from the front office can entice Skenes to want a long-term extension. It’s about as likely right now as any of you out there reading this article making contact against a Skenes heater. The rotation overall is good enough to put this team in competition for a Wild Card. Will they get near enough run support to make that dream a reality?
BOLD TAKE: Konnor Griffin wins NL Rookie of the Year and the Pirates make the playoffs
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
