There is some measure of solace in going 81-81 instead of having a losing season, as the Giants won their final four games in 2025 to avoid that fate. But, this is a team that has gone 81-81, 80-82, 79-83, and 81-81 over the last four seasons since the enormous outlier back in 2021 with a 107-55 mark. That is also the only season in which the Giants have made it to the postseason since 2016 and their only winning season in that time. While the Giants haven’t really bottomed out like others around the league of late, as they reserved that for 2017-18, they still haven’t been good enough.
Fans, players, ownership, front office personnel, coaches, everybody is at a point where they are demanding more from this Giants team and who can blame them? Things could have swung more in one direction or the other last season, as the Giants played 58 one-run games. The only team to play more was the Pirates with 60. San Francisco was 28-30 in those games and the team was even 12 games over .500 on June 13. They fell below .500 on July 30 for the first time. The 162-game grind is just so hard.
There are a lot of solid big leaguers on this team and that means another competitive ballclub. This is a high-floor, low-ceiling roster where a lot of overachievement will have to take place to exceed expectations.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
As we know, Oracle Park makes a difficult task even harder, since the ball doesn’t carry well with San Francisco’s climate and the marine layer right on the water. The high wall in right field also helps to suppress power production, though it can make the venue very good for doubles and triples. The Giants only hit .235 as a team, which ranked 25th and they were 29th in stolen bases, so they were a station-to-station team when they did get aboard and this is not a team that will hit a lot of home runs given the park factor. At home, the Giants were 23rd in wOBA. On the road, they were 18th.
And that’s a root cause of why the Giants can’t get over the hump. Their home and road numbers had a lot of similarities, but one notable difference is that they had the fifth-highest road K%. That can’t happen. Rafael Devers was a fine addition with the stick, even with his career-worst 26.3% K% and a 29.4% K% with the Giants. He was one of six Giants who posted a wRC+ above 100. Because wRC+ is a park-adjusted metric, it takes into account Oracle Park’s inherent hurdles and so this is a really disappointing outcome for the Giants. On the plus side, five of those six guys are back, plus former batting champ (and poor defender) Luis Arraez and a pro hitter in Harrison Bader.
PITCHING
San Francisco was 10th in ERA and second in FIP last season, so this was a stellar pitching staff on the whole. The four primary starters ran ERAs between 3.22 and 3.85 and the bullpen was top five in ERA and FIP. The Giants had the third-highest GB% and second-lowest HR/FB% in baseball, so their staff was able to thrive on home run prevention and limiting extra-base hits. Those are useful tools home or away, so the Giants were a top-10 road staff by ERA as well. What I find most interesting is that this is not a high-strikeout pitching staff and the team was -24 Outs Above Average defensively, so you could argue that they got lucky, but also argue that they’d be even better with a stronger defense.
To replace Justin Verlander and a turnstile of fifth starters, the Giants signed Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser. I’ve always been intrigued by Mahle, whose command early in his career was suspect and he had to work a lot to eliminate a large platoon split. He hasn’t been healthy since 2021 and Houser has thrown over 125 MLB innings once in his career. The durability of ace Logan Webb allows the Giants to go this route and take damaged goods to see what they can become. From a home run suppression standpoint, Mahle and Houser do fit the rest of the team well.
PROSPECT WATCH
This one is easy as Bryce Eldridge is the biggest name to watch. Eldridge was taken 16th overall in 2023 and made his MLB debut last season, but his cup of coffee was terribly bitter with just three hits in 37 plate appearances. He did have offseason surgery to remove a bone spur and maybe that was what cratered his numbers after slashing .260/.333/.510 in the minors. Eldridge has a lot of swing and miss in his profile, but may offer a power threat that the Giants are lacking right now. He’s a large being at 6-foot-7 and has room to add weight. He’s not much of a defender, but with the universal DH and his bat, the Giants will find a place to put him.
2026 OUTLOOK
Nobody expects the NL West teams to spend like the Dodgers. But, mostly maintaining status quo isn’t going to help close the gap. Even after the acquisition of Devers, the Giants were just 40-50 with him on the roster. A couple mid-rotation arms and a couple of complementary offensive pieces might raise the ceiling a little bit and help the Giants over the 81-81 hump, but this team isn’t obviously better or worse than any of the last four versions we’ve seen. It’ll likely be a repeat of what we’ve recently seen and the Giants are going to have to decide who stays and who goes in an effort to get closer to the top teams in the division.
BOLD TAKE: Bryce Eldridge, who had a 62.7% Hard Hit% in AAA last season, is worth a look at +1600 for NL Rookie of the Year
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
On paper, the Giants desperately needed an “aircraft carrier” in the middle of their lineup to step up in weight class with the NL contenders. Trading for 1B Rafael Devers last June answered that need, but took a bit to see results directly affect the San Francisco offense positively. Teamed with SS Willy Adames and 3B Matt Chapman, it’s now a vaunted group of sluggers to power the Giants attack. LF Heliot Ramos is developing into a fabulous all-around talent. All-world bat-to-ball specialist 2B Luis Arraez teams with Ramos as a primary table-setter. RF Jung Hoo Lee finally stayed relatively healthy and put together a solid campaign. Newly-signed CF Harrison Bader joins the fold, lengthening an order that will most likely see everyday at bats from highly touted prospect DH Bryce Eldridge starting Opening Day. C Patrick Bailey rounds out the starting nine as one of the best defensive catchers in the big leagues. Oracle Park isn’t the greatest hitting environment in MLB, but there’s no reason why this current 2026 batting order can’t be amongst the better units on the Senior Circuit.
PITCHING
Cy Young candidate Logan Webb leads a vaunted 1-2 punch with Robbie Ray atop the Giants rotation. Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser signed as free agents to fortify the starting five and Landen Roupp will get the chance to solidify that No. 5 spot. It’s a stout group and they’ll hope to build on a 2025 year that, outside of Webb and Ray, very much underperformed. You’d never guess it by looking at the statistics without the team name next to them, but the Giants bullpen actually had the fourth-lowest bullpen ERA in 2025. Closer Ryan Walker will reassume the role that he abdicated last season for Camilo Doval, now a member of the Yankees after being traded to New York at the 2025 deadline. Getting to Walker is the main concern in 2026, knowing their best setup man, Randy Rodriguez, is all but lost for this year with Tommy John surgery last September. Erik Miller, Joel Peguero, José Buttó represent the top leverage relievers tasked with building the bridge between the starters and the ninth inning.
PROSPECT WATCH
A host of graduations from Eldridge, OF Drew Gilbert, SPs Carson Whisenhunt, Blade Tidwell, Trevor McDonald and Hayden Birdsong leave the top end of the Giants farm system with a fair amount of early big league experience. What’s left is a lot of developmental, yet high ceiling youngsters in Single-A. Circle SS Jhonny Level and SS/2B Gavin Kilen (No.13 overall selection in 2025 draft) for the potential fast-risers on the position player front. There’s some sneaky upside to a handful of these prospects.
2026 OUTLOOK
Perhaps the most widely controversial manager hire happened in the Bay Area with the hiring of Tony Vitello, former head coach at the University of Tennessee. He becomes the first manager to go straight from college to the big leagues, with no prior professional coaching experience. What that transition will look like and how the players receive him will give an early indication on how president of baseball operations Buster Posey’s gamble pays off. It’s a big swing for a highly accomplished college coach, but it’s an entirely different world within the six-month marathon of a major league season. The triad of Devers-Adames-Chapman needs to be a wrecking ball from the get-go and the bullpen will need immediate leverage inning answers to be in contention for a Wild Card.
BOLD TAKE: Logan Webb finishes Top 3 in NL Cy Young voting, Giants win 87-89 games
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
