The Rays return home to Tropicana Field with earlier game times during the week and a new ownership group. Former owner Stuart Sternberg sold the team to a group led by Patrick Zalupski, Bill Cosgrove, and Ken Babby, who was the owner of the Akron RubberDucks, Cleveland’s AA affiliate, and Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, Miami’s AAA affiliate. Most of the talk regarding the new owners this winter centered on upgrades to The Trop while waiting for a new ballpark in 2029.
We have no indication thus far as to whether or not this new group will be willing to spend more money on the roster or prevent guys from being traded prior to free agency, as they’ve spent under $25 million on FA during their first offseason and jettisoned Shane Baz before he got more expensive with upcoming arbitration years. When teams were still operating like it was the Dark Ages, the Rays were able to capitalize on data and smart minds, including Andrew Friedman, who leveled up from penny-pinching charter boat captain to drunken sailor with a trillion-dollar yacht moving from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles to lead the Dodgers front office.
These days, the Rays are still really smart and getting back to The Trop should help, as their roster is constructed for that, not a free-for-all, outdoor Spring Training park with Yankee Stadium dimensions. But, they aren’t ahead of other organizations analytically like they once were and the first back-to-back losing seasons since 2016-17 do seem pretty telling.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
The move outside is complicated to process. The 2025 Rays hit .261/.330/.418 with a .326 wOBA and a 107 wRC+ at Steinbrenner Field. The 2024 Trop-dwellers hit .229/.303/.466 with a .295 wOBA and a 99 wRC+. Their .295 wOBA ranked 29th in the league, so moving outside helped. The Rays scored 67 more runs over their 81 home games. Of course, they also went 41-40 with the offensive boost and 42-39 in 2024 when they got outscored at home because baseball is funny like that.
The incredible thing to me is that the Rays only had a FB% of 33% in a ballpark that does help the ball carry, though the park does play very differently during the day versus the night because of the humidity and the winds. I can’t say I expected the Rays to lead the league in home GB% with what seemed to be a lot of reasons to elevate the baseball because nothing carries at Tropicana Field. And, yet, they still scored a lot more runs.
Oddly, the Rays were third with a 120 wRC+ in 2023 at home, slashing .255/.322/.439, which was an even higher SLG than last season. Obviously some personnel has changed and the team is always seeking an edge. I’ll be honest, though, this lineup is unimpressive, even with the acquisition of Gavin Lux and the signing of Cedric Mullins.
PITCHING
Time will tell if going from Baz to Steven Matz is a downgrade – and to what degree, if so – but the Rays do field a very interesting staff this season. Drew Rasmussen made 31 starts and threw 150 innings in his first full season since 2022 and was extremely good, but also treated with kid gloves, as 15 of those starts featured between 62-80 pitches. Of course, he was also very efficient in most outings. Unfortunately, they were unable to provide the same to Shane McClanahan, who didn’t pitch in a big league game for the second year in a row.
McClanahan is said to be healthy entering Spring Training, but what can the Rays realistically expect? As a high-velo strike-thrower, his Stuff+ figures were elite pre-injury, but what now? Former Athletic Joe Boyle has punched a lot of tickets as a big leaguer with a 25.2% K%, but also sports a 14.3% BB%. With another five-and-dive guy in Ryan Pepiot, an oft-injured starter in Matz, and a cast of journeymen in the MLB bullpen and AAA rotation, the improved park factor of the The Trop will have to boost this staff.
PROSPECT WATCH
Sometimes a cup of coffee can be really bitter and that’s how to describe Carson Williams’ 32-game sample at the MLB level, as he struck out 41.5% of the time, but did flash his power and speed tools with five homers and two steals. While the future at SS is the focus of the Rays organization, SP Brody Hopkins is where I’m looking. The collegiate two-way player only threw 54 innings at Winthrop before making his pro ball debut with 66 strikeouts and 44 walks in 15 appearances. He was a centerpiece in the Randy Arozarena deal with the Mariners and has posted terrific run prevention numbers while still throwing a ton of pitches between strikeouts and walks. But, he’s a highly athletic arm and the Rays don’t mind pushing guys. With a delicate starting staff, I won’t be surprised if Hopkins debuts this season.
2026 OUTLOOK
Overperforming is what the Rays usually do, as they had a better record than their Pythagorean Win-Loss record four straight seasons from 2017-20 and then again in 2024. Last season, despite a +31 run differential, they were 77-85. Run prevention remains a strength, but run generation remains a moving target. If the Rays are going to lead baseball in ground ball rate and have a bottom-10 K%, they’re not going to generate enough offense to be a factor in this division or the AL playoff picture.
BOLD TAKE: The Rays are pretty far out of it in July and one of their AL East rivals pays a rich sum for Drew Rasmussen at the Trade Deadline
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
What a dichotomy the Rays offense is entering 2026. The good: 3B Junior Caminero is a budding superstar, All-Star DH Yandy Diaz continues to mash and slug with the best in baseball and youngster 1B Jonathan Aranda looks like a middle order bat that brings additional run scoring ability. Rookie speedster LF Chandler Simpson made his big league debut in 2025, 2B Gavin Lux came over in a trade with Cincinnati to replace the departed Brandon Lowe and veteran outfielders Cedric Mullins and Jake Fraley can take over in CF and RF, respectively. The bad? Who’s filling out the bottom of a lineup that, as a whole, couldn’t get above league average in most of the critical offensive departments last year? This team thrived on speed and pressure, leading MLB in stolen bases, while finishing ninth in team batting average. The Rays also depart their temporary 2025 “home” at George Steinbrenner Field, Spring Training home of the New York Yankees, back to Tropicana Field, after $55M in renovations from the devastation during Hurricane Milton. A new turf playing surface was installed in mid-January and may provide a new data point to consider for run totals in Rays home games. Will the power numbers from the left-handed bats, who benefitted from the short porch in a Spring Training ballpark last year, be able to recreate that firepower back indoors?
PITCHING
The pitching factory that’s resided in Tampa Bay took a dip last year, suffering a rash of injuries throughout the staff. Health is always top of mind in all organizations, but the hope is former staff ace Shane McClanahan can reprise his role atop the rotation. If so, Ryan Pepiot and Drew Rasmussen can team with him to form quite the trio. Add in veteran Steven Matz, as well as freshly signed swingman Nick Martinez and youngster Joe Boyle. That group produces another familiar refrain in this organization, creating depth for a competent starting five. The closing duties in the bullpen will pass to Edwin Uceta, after the departure of Pete Fairbanks down the state to be the Marlins stopper. Setup men Griffin Jax and Garrett Cleavinger provide the bridge to Uceta and Bryan Baker is a name to keep your eye on for leverage spots in key situations. Finding early-season length out of the rotation will be an early litmus test of the success these Rays hurlers can expect in 2026. A plethora of swing-and-miss capability, teamed with high-octane velocity, puts this staff in their customary sleeper spot to surprise in the AL.
PROSPECT WATCH
The highly touted SS Carson Williams got his feet wet in 2025 at the big league level and quickly found out how difficult life is at the top. He’s as big a foundational piece for the organization moving forward and can develop into an All-Star. A big addition is OF Jacob Melton, coming over from the Astros in the three-team deal involving Houston, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. His bat needs work, but his defensive prowess may give him a shot at beating out Cedric Mullins for the starting CF job this year.
2026 OUTLOOK
Manager Kevin Cash always seems to extract 110% ability out of his teams and this year’s challenge will be no different. The AL East is arguably the toughest division in baseball going into 2026, but that’s never daunted one of the best skippers in the game. The offense will need to limit strikeouts and their arms must remain healthy for the majority of the season. They go as far as Caminero’s bat takes them and if McClanahan gets 25+ starts, they’ll push for a postseason berth
BOLD TAKE: Junior Caminero finishes Top 5 in AL MVP voting and the Rays win 85+ games
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
