The 2019 season feels like an eternity ago for the Nationals. Since winning the first and only World Series in franchise history, the team has finished in fifth place in the NL East in five of six seasons, including last season. In those years, the Nats have lost 34 (90-loss pace), 97, 107, 91, 91, and 96 games. Last season’s squad was outscored by more than 200 runs and actually should have been even worse than 66-96 by Pythagorean Win-Loss. And it wasn’t a very inspiring offseason.
MacKenzie Gore was traded to the Rangers for a handful of prospects, as Washington is poised to let a lot of young players learn on the job and take their lumps. Some of those youngsters have been around for a couple of seasons already, but the nice thing about having a very young roster in this case is that nobody projected to make the Opening Day roster is older than the 33-year-old manager. No, that’s not a typo. The Nationals tabbed Blake Butera as the successor to Miguel Cairo, who took over for Dave Martinez during the 2025 season. Butera, who was in the Rays organization previously, is the youngest MLB manager in over 50 years.
Things can change, but one position player over 27 is projected to break camp with the team and the oldest player on the team is likely to be 30 with Trevor Williams on IL following Tommy John surgery.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
To give you an idea of how the Nationals offense performed last season, let’s start by noting that they had the third-fewest plate appearances in the league. Volume helps when trying to score runs because you need as many chances as possible to get hits, draw walks, and step to the plate with runners in scoring position. While the Nationals were 21st in hits, they were 28th in walks. With their lack of positive outcomes by plate appearance, they did what they could to try and manufacture runs with 132 stolen bases. Butera comes from a Rays team that stole 30 more bases than any other team, so expect the Nats to be aggressive on the bases.
Washington had plenty of inquiries about CJ Abrams, but they opted to keep the team leader in steals with 31. Abrams fell one homer short of 20, as the Nats only had one guy surpass that number in James Wood (31) who is still on the roster this season. The other was Josh Bell. The guys who had the most plate appearances for the Nationals were a mixed bag to some degree, but Wood and Abrams were the best hitters who are still there. Daylen Lile posted a team-high 132 wRC+ in 351 PA as easily the most promising of the younger guys who got regular reps last season. All in all, this was a poor offense all the way around and projects that way again.
PITCHING
While the offense didn’t do the team any favors, the pitching staff was downright awful. The Nationals were 29th in ERA and the team below them has to play 81 games a year at Coors Field. Washington was also 29th in xERA and 28th in FIP. As a staff, they accumulated just 6.9 fWAR. Gore was responsible for 2.9 of that and he’s now a Texas Ranger. Reliever Jose Ferrer was next and he had a 4.48 ERA, but his advanced metrics were good enough for 1.4 fWAR. He, too, was traded. In fact, with Williams hurt and other transactions, the Nationals return exactly one pitcher who amassed at least 1.0 fWAR last season.
On the plus side, the return of Josiah Gray should help, as he only made two starts last season, and Cade Cavalli is another year removed from major surgery, so he got to spend the offseason training instead of rehabbing. Gray racked up 1.6 fWAR in 2024, but he paired his 3.91 ERA with a 5.02 xERA and a 4.93 FIP. Cavalli, who was the team’s top pitching prospect not that long ago, made 10 starts with a 4.25 ERA and 4.53 FIP. None of the relievers are rich with high-leverage experience and this might be the worst bullpen in baseball again. Last year’s group had a league-worst 5.59 ERA and a 29th-ranked FIP at 4.86.
PROSPECT WATCH
In return for a solid reliever in Ferrer, the Nationals got catcher Harry Ford from the Mariners. Ford, who was taken 12th overall in the 2021 draft, is pretty much ready. He slashed .283/.408/.460 in the hitter-happy PCL last season and has hit at every minor league level to this point. He did have eight plate appearances across eight games for the Mariners last season, but there wasn’t much to go on there. Keibert Ruiz has had four straight below average offensive seasons and has consistently graded as a poor pitch framer. Ford’s coming for his job and it could be very soon.
2026 OUTLOOK
I wish I had unicorns and rainbows to give out here, but this will not be a good baseball team at all. I don’t think we’re looking at a 110-loss team or anything like that, though 100 losses is very much in play. The front office just wants to see growth from guys like Lile, Dylan Crews, and Brady House. Crews, the second overall pick out of LSU in 2023, owns a .211/.282/.352 slash in 454 MLB PA. House struggled with MLB pitching and has struggled to make contact in the minors. This is a sink-or-swim year for some guys and I’d expect anything not nailed down to be available as the summer goes along with a full-fledged rebuild in progress.
BOLD TAKE: CJ Abrams gets traded for a massive haul at the Trade Deadline
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
The breakout 2025 campaign from James Wood, another solid season from CJ Abrams and “welcome to the show” seasons out of Daylen Lile and Luis Garcia Jr. bring hope in 2026. 2023 No. 2 overall pick Dylan Crews will be in the everyday lineup from Opening Day, so the top half of Washington’s lineup provides potency and thump. Outside of C Keibert Ruiz, lots of inexperience fills out the bottom of the order, with a fair amount of speed from 2B Nasim Nunez and CF Jacob Young. Can rookie 3B Brady House grab hold of the hot corner and produce? Are pitching staffs going to attempt pitching around James Wood in run-scoring situations? This offense will need some more slug throughout to stay afloat in the NL East.
PITCHING
What a shocker towards the end of January: staff ace MacKenzie Gore was dealt to the Rangers in exchange for five prospects, leaving a massive hole atop the Washington rotation to start 2026. Cade Cavalli isn’t a bad place to begin, but a lot will be asked of fellow right-handers Brad Lord, Jake Irvin and Josiah Gray. Free agent Foster Griffin comes over from the NPB, but with Gore departed, good luck finding a smooth turn through these five starters. The Nats traded closer Kyle Finnegan at the ’25 deadline, leaving a closer-by-committee between Clayton Beeter and Cole Henry. It’s a 2026 bullpen projected as one of the worst in the sport. That’s saying something, considering they don’t pitch 81 games at Mile High in Denver.
PROSPECT WATCH
3B Brady House likely gets the first shot to lock down the hot corner on Opening Day. 2023 3rd rounder Travis Sykora had his 2025 campaign cut short, needing Tommy John surgery in late August. The buzz continues on SP Jarlin Susana, the final piece of the 2022 Juan Soto trade, throwing 100+ mph missiles, but still needing to harness his command. Control is all that stands in Susana’s way of rocketing up the Double-A and Triple-A ladder for a potential 2026 debut.
2026 OUTLOOK
The most eyebrow-raising hire of the offseason is new manager Blake Butera, named the new skipper on October 30th, 2025. He’s the youngest manager (33-years-old) since 1972 and accumulated a 258-144 record calling the shots in minor league dugouts for four seasons. newly-hired president of baseball operations Paul Toboni, alongside freshly-installed GM Ani Kilambi will team with Butera, focusing on improving player development. Stealing Kilambi from the Phillies front office, well-versed in what building a championship team looks like, is already a win for the organization. I want to get excited about the young position player stars in Wood, Abrams, Lile and Crews. Serious questions remain about the Nationals team defense, with major liabilities especially on the infield. I can’t get stoked about a rotation that’s going to take a fair amount of lumps through the year either, leaving many in our nation’s capital longing for football season.
BOLD TAKE: The Nationals challenge for the worst regular season record in 2026
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
