The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, April 25, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Pablo Lopez is 12-0 (+12.00 units) as a large home favorite of -180 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-198 vs. LAA) 

Trend: Favorites are just 22-34 (39.3%, -25.91 units) in the last 56 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -46.3%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-135 vs. TOR) 

NY METS Letdown after series vs. PHI: 12-20 (37.5%) -12.35 units, ROI: -38.6%     
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-180 at WSH) 

* Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 198-199 run (+27.60 units, ROI: 7%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+124 at CHC)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams are off to an uncustomary good start, 18-4 for +8.81 units. However, at this point, we are still just a few highly priced losses from going negative.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-205 vs. LAA), SEATTLE (-270 vs. MIA) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a good start, 21-5 for +8.5 units, an ROI of 32.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-218 vs. PIT), ATHLETICS (-245 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 18-6 for +4.06 units. However, they did lose -4.38 units last week, a good sign that the system is turning back towards its usual pattern.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-218 vs. PIT) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 55-79 for -14.78 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+124 at CHC), MILWAUKEE (+110 at STL), CLEVELAND (-110 vs. BOS) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 47-71 for -19.69 units. This is definitely a stain on an overall great start for my bullpen ratings.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+124 at CHC), MILWAUKEE (+110 at STL), CLEVELAND (-110 vs. BOS) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 25-31 for -5.81 units (ROI -10.4%), and have dropped -16.84 units over the last two and a half weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (16-12, +4.32 units) are uncharacteristic but are heading negative over the last two weeks.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CHICAGO CUBS (-148 vs. PHI), TAMPA BAY (+120 at SD)
3+ games – KANSAS CITY (-105 vs. HOU) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 32-23 for -0.29 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-180 at WSH), HOUSTON (-115 at KC) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a reasonable start, 22-14 for +3.99 units, an ROI of 11.1%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+124 at CHC) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the ’24 full season results, along with some notes about the early ’25 returns: 

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, ST LOUIS, ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, ST LOUIS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and an ROI of +7.0%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, HOUSTON, CINCINNATI 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 341-260 for +46.76 units and an ROI of 7.7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-180 at WSH), HOUSTON (-115 at KC), KANSAS CITY (-105 vs HOU)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 169-107 for +37.49 units and a ROI of 13.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-120 at COL), BOSTON (-112 at CLE), HOUSTON (-115 at KC)
*watch for ATLANTA at AZ, -135 currently

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 87-138 for -47.94 units and a ROI of -21.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-108 vs. BOS), KANSAS CITY (-105 vs. HOU), ARIZONA (+114 vs. ATL) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 274-235 but for -58.45 units and a ROI of -11.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-135 vs. TOR), ST LOUIS (-130 vs. MIL), SAN DIEGO (-142 vs. TB)

MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 124-52 but for +20.01 units and an ROI of 11.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-278 vs. MIA), SAN DIEGO (-142 vs. TB), SAN FRANCISCO (-115 vs. TEX) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 315-257 record for +57.29 units and an ROI of 10% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+120 at SD)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1674-2151 (43.8%) for -201.96 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, TORONTO, MIAMI 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3508-3080 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -479.42 units and a ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS, KANSAS CITY, SAN FRANCISCO

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1003-854 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +30.96 units for backers and an ROI of 1.7%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-142 vs TB) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 514-428 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.15 units, for an ROI of 2.9%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-142 vs. TB)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 114-100 outright (+3.81 units, ROI: 1.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+124 at CHC), TORONTO (+114 at NYY) 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 198-199 run (+27.60 units, ROI: 7%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+124 at CHC) 

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 160-179 (+4.23 units, ROI: 1.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+124 at CHC) 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 136-107 (+12.13 units, ROI: 5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-180 at WSH)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +220 (+37 diff), ARIZONA +114 (+27), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +200 (+25), MILWAUKEE +110 (+24), PHILADELPHIA +124 (+19), PITTSBURGH +180 (+18), CLEVELAND -108 (+17) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CINCINNATI -120 (+17 diff) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CIN-COL OVER 9.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-WSH UNDER 9.5 (-1.5), ATL-AZ UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), BOS-CLE UNDER 9 (-0.6)

Pitcher Situational MLB Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.

(967) BOSTON (14-13) at (968) CLEVELAND (14-10)
Trend: BOS is 6-17 (-11.82 units) in the -120 to +100 line range with starter Tanner Houck
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-110 at CLE) 

(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (12-12) at (972) MINNESOTA (9-16)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 12-0 (+12.00 units) as a large home favorite of -180 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-198 vs. LAA)

(973) CHICAGO-AL (6-19) at (974) ATHLETICS (12-13)
Trend: Luis Severino is 25-10 (+12.95 units) against teams with a losing record in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-245 vs. CWS)

Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Fri 4/25-Sun 4/27
Trend: Favorites are just 22-34 (39.3%, -25.91 units) in the last 56 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -46.3%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-135 vs. TOR)

Series #24: Baltimore at Detroit, Fri 4/25-Sun 4/27
Trend: Favorites are 16-7 (72.7%, +5.53 units) in the last 23 games in BAL-DET head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 30.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-120 vs. BAL)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NY METS 
Letdown after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 12-20 (37.5%) -12.35 units, ROI: -38.6%
Next betting opportunity: Friday, April 25 at Washington
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-180 at WSH) 

ATHLETICS    
Letdown after series vs. TEXAS: 12-20 (37.5%) -9.03 units, ROI: -28.2%     
Next betting opportunity: Friday, April 25 vs Chicago White Sox    
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-245 vs. CWS)

PHILADELPHIA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 16-17 (48.5%) -5.15 units, ROI: -15.6%     
Next betting opportunity: Friday, April 25 at Chicago Cubs
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+124 at CHC)

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