The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, April 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 161-96 for +43.77 units and an ROI of 17% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-130 at PHI), CLEVELAND (-115 at LAA), ATHLETICS (-118 at COL) 

BALTIMORE letdown after series vs. BOS: 10-22 (31.3%) -11.95 units, ROI: -37.3%
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-105 at KC) 

Trend: Max Fried is 19-3 (+14.10 units) vs. NL Central
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-162 at PIT) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! So far in the ’25 season, this system is 4-1 for +2.02 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-245 vs. MIA), DETROIT (-250 vs. CWS) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. So far in the 2025 season, they are 11-16 for -3.82 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+142 at CHC), BALTIMORE (-105 at KC), TAMPA BAY (+114 at TEX), ST LOUIS (+105 at BOS) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
 Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. So far in the ’25 season, they are 10-14 for -3.27 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+142 at CHC), BALTIMORE (-105 at KC), TAMPA BAY (+114 at TEX), ST LOUIS (+105 at BOS)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6% (in the ’25 season, they are 5-3 for +2.65 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units, an ROI of -7.2% (in the 2025 season, they are 4-2 for +2.20 units). This has been a very consistent angle.

System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TEXAS (-135 vs. TB), BOSTON (-125 vs. STL)
3+ games – CHICAGO CUBS (-170 vs SD), PHILADELPHIA (+110 vs. LAD), TORONTO (+110 at NYM) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This is a massive one-year swing for this system in 2024, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. We will give it a chance in ’25 but monitor it closely. So far in the 2025 season, this system is 8-4 for +3.58 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+142 at CHC), LA DODGERS (-130 at PHI), MILWAUKEE (-130 vs. CIN)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! So far in the 2025 season, this system is 2-3 for -2.18 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-250 vs. MIA), CLEVELAND (-118 at LAA), ATHLETICS (-122 at COL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going for an ROI of about +17%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gotten an ROI of 1.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors are looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of two full baseball seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two years when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group has had an ROI of 11%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going for an ROI of about -11%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, NY METS, ATHLETICS, NY YANKEES, SAN FRANCISCO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of the 2023 season, when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they had an atrocious ROI of -27%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, NY METS, ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last two regular seasons, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has had an ROI of over 10%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-COL

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 326-247 for +46.64 units and an ROI of 8.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, SAN FRANCISCO 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 161-96 for +43.77 units and an ROI of 17% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-130 at PHI), CLEVELAND (-115 at LAA), ATHLETICS (-118 at COL)

*watch for BALTIMORE at KC and ARIZONA at WSH 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 81-134 for -50.08 units and a ROI of -23.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+110 vs. LAD)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 251-222 but for -63.79 units and an ROI of -13.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-170 vs. SD), KANSAS CITY (-115 vs. BAL), TEXAS (-135 vs TB), BOSTON (-130 vs. STL), NY METS (-130 vs. TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (-162 vs. SEA)
*watch for LA ANGELS vs CLE and COLORADO vs ATH

MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 106-44 but for +13.51 units and an ROI of 9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-130 vs. STL), NY METS (-130 vs. TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (-162 vs. SEA) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 306-244 record for +61.4 units and a ROI of 11.2% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-130 at PHI), NY YANKEES (-162 at PIT), ST LOUIS (+110 at BOS)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1699-1611 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -227.42 units. This represents an ROI of -6.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, CHICAGO CUBS, NY YANKEES 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1638-2096 (43.9%) for -184.25 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TAMPA BAY, ATHLETICS, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3436-3027 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -478.88 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO, NY METS, ATLANTA, BOSTON 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 970-846 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +6.49 units for backers and an ROI of 0.4%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-115 vs. BAL), TEXAS (-135 vs. TB)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 53-123 skid (-42.54 units, ROI: -24.2%).
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-245 vs. MIA)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 69-151 (-63.44 units, ROI: -28.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-245 vs. MIA) 

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 32-66 in their last 98 tries (-19.71 units, ROI: -20.1%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-245 vs. MIA)

Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 110-97 outright (+2.78 units, ROI: 1.3%).
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-118 at COL) 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 188-188 run (+27.94 units, ROI: 7.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-245 vs. MIA), COLORADO (-102 vs. ATH) 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 186-122 in their last 308 tries (+23.71 units, ROI: 7.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+142 at CHC), LA DODGERS (-130 at PHI)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 23-54 (-10.71 units, ROI: -13.9%) in their last 77 tries.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+142 at CHC) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 88-97 (-45.42 units, ROI: -24.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+142 at CHC), LA DODGERS (-130 at PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (-162 vs. SEA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO +142 (+27 diff), MIAMI +205 (+50), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +205 (+30), COLORADO +102 (+19), SEATTLE +136 (+22) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-PHI OVER 8 (+1.1), MIA-ATL OVER 7.5 (+0.8)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last six years.

(911) CHICAGO-AL (2-4) at (912) DETROIT (2-4)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has taken care of business against lesser opponents, going 27-9 (+9.33 units) against teams with a 45% or lower win pct in the last six seasons
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT (-250 vs. CWS) 

(917) CLEVELAND (2-4) at (918) LOS ANGELES-AL (4-2)
Trend: CLE is 2-12 (-10.66 units) against teams with a win pct of 55% or higher with starter Gavin Williams in the last two seasons
Trend Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-115 at LAA) 

(919) ST LOUIS (4-2) at (920) BOSTON (3-4)
Trend: Erick Fedde is 18-8 (+10.40 units) in the -115 to +110 line range
Trend Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+105 at BOS)

Trend: Walker Buehler is 4-8 (-6.60 units) as a short favorite (in line range -120 to -145)
Trend Match: FADE BOSTON (-125 vs. STL) 

(925) NEW YORK-AL (4-2) at (926) PITTSBURGH (2-5)
Trend: Max Fried is 19-3 (+14.10 units) vs NL Central
Trend Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-162 at PIT)

Trend: PIT is 8-18 (-6.45 units) vs. teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in last six seasons
Trend Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+136 vs. NYY) 

(927) SEATTLE (3-4) at (928) SAN FRANCISCO (5-1)
Trend: Justin Verlander is 4-13 (-18.91 units) as a favorite within the line range of -165 to -190 with starter Justin Verlander in the last six seasons
Trend Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (*if they fall into this line range, -162 currently*)

Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Fri 4/4-Sun 4/6
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 17-6 (73.9%, +10.03 units) in the last 23 games between Cleveland & LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 43.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-105 vs. CLE) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

BALTIMORE    
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 10-22 (31.3%) -11.95 units, ROI: -37.3%
Next betting opportunity: Friday, April 4 at Kansas City
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-105 at KC) 

MIAMI 
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 11-19 (36.7%) -6.58 units, ROI: -21.9%
Next betting opportunity: Friday, April 4 at Atlanta
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+200 at ATL)

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